Bistrica are tipped to win this home fixture, a result the model sees as the most likely. The odds lean heavily in their favour, with a 59% chance of a home victory, 24% for a draw and 17% for a Primorje win. The match is expected to see around 2.8 goals, with the most probable total being two. The single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, a 11.4% chance. Bistrica’s home form shows they average 1.54 goals scored and 1.62 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Primorje, playing away, averages a modest 0.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Home +2 handicap (94.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.2%), Under 5.5 (93.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.3%) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.2%). Bistrica’s recent run of two wins and a 2-0 victory over Dren Vrhnika, combined with Primorje’s recent win against Krka, set the stage for a tightly contested encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bistrica win
59.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Primorje win
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bistrica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.33
1.80
1.47
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.38
1.54
1.62
1.08
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Primorje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.10
1.07
1.71
0.44
2.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.92
0.40
2.60
0.43
3.14
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.53
1.44
1.22
0.38
1.88
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.0%
Under 2.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-0
10.7%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
6.9%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
4.8%
Bistrica goals ↓
Primorje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
4.4%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
10%
11%
4.8%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
6.8%
6.3%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.2%
3.0%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bistrica goals (down), columns = Primorje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Bistrica is 0.20 points worse than Primorje in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Bistrica is 0.06 goals worse than Primorje in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Bistrica is 0.05 goals worse than Primorje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bistrica or Draw
83.2%
Avg Implied -
59%
24%
17%
covers Bistrica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica or Primorje
76.1%
Avg Implied -
59%
24%
17%
covers Bistrica + Primorje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Primorje
40.7%
Avg Implied -
59%
24%
17%
covers Draw + Primorje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bistrica over/under 0.5
Over
85.2%
Under
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 3.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 0.5
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bistrica, so a minus line means Bistrica give that many goals of a start and Primorje receive them. At -1, Bistrica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bistrica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bistrica)
Bistrica -2
17.3%
Draw -2
18.6%
Primorje +2
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bistrica)
Bistrica -1
35.9%
Draw -1
23.4%
Primorje +1
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bistrica)
Bistrica +1
83.2%
Draw +1
10.9%
Primorje -1
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bistrica)
Bistrica +2
94.1%
Draw +2
4.4%
Primorje -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bistrica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.69
0.54
0.85
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Primorje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.57
0.93
0.19
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.33
0.20
1.60
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.65
0.78
0.56
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bistrica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.07
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.69
1.00
0.77
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Primorje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.13
0.50
0.79
0.25
1.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.58
0.20
1.00
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.67
0.67
0.12
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Bistrica and Primorje have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Bistrica and Primorje have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Bistrica and Primorje have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Bistrica and Primorje have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja