Bistrica are tipped to win, with a 51% chance of taking the match at home, 26% for a draw and 24% for Rudar to lift the trophy. The average number of goals expected is 2.9, but the model believes the most likely total is two, with a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, at 12%. Bistrica have scored 1.54 and conceded 1.62 in similar opposition at home, while Rudar have managed 1.0 and 1.2 in away matches against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.9%, Under 6.5 at 97.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Under 5.5 at 92.2%, Home +2 handicap at 90.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 89.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 88.8% and Home over 0.5 goals at 83.0%. Bistrica’s recent five-match run of WWLDW and a 2-0 win over Dren Vrhnika add confidence, while Rudar’s 4-1 victory over Bilje gives them a brief lift.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bistrica win
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar win
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bistrica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.33
1.80
1.47
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.38
1.54
1.62
1.08
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
2.13
0.87
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.29
1.33
2.33
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (21)
1.76
0.81
2.45
0.45
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
8.3%
0-0
6.4%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
Bistrica goals ↓
Rudar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
5.1%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.3%
12%
6.4%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.7%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
4.9%
5.7%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.2%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bistrica goals (down), columns = Rudar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Bistrica is 0.27 points better than Rudar in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Bistrica is 0.13 goals better than Rudar in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Bistrica is 0.10 goals better than Rudar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bistrica or Draw
76.2%
Avg Implied -
51%
26%
24%
covers Bistrica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica or Rudar
74.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
26%
24%
covers Bistrica + Rudar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rudar
49.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
26%
24%
covers Draw + Rudar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bistrica over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bistrica, so a minus line means Bistrica give that many goals of a start and Rudar receive them. At -1, Bistrica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bistrica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bistrica)
Bistrica -2
12.8%
Draw -2
15.8%
Rudar +2
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bistrica)
Bistrica -1
28.6%
Draw -1
22.0%
Rudar +1
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bistrica)
Bistrica +1
76.2%
Draw +1
14.0%
Rudar -1
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bistrica)
Bistrica +2
90.2%
Draw +2
6.8%
Rudar -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bistrica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.69
0.54
0.85
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.53
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.33
1.33
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.33
0.91
0.36
0.90
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bistrica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.07
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.69
1.00
0.77
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.20
0.33
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
0.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
1.55
0.09
0.10
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Bistrica and Rudar have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Bistrica and Rudar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Bistrica and Rudar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Bistrica and Rudar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Triglav
Beltinci
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja