This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
1.60
1.00
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.71
1.50
1.75
0.33
4.00
vs Similar (9)
1.67
1.11
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.71
1.88
0.75
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.95+2.4%
Under 2.5
48.8%
@ 1.86-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.3%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.3%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.2%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
5.6%
Boavista goals ↓
Guimaraes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
8.3%
6.8%
3.3%
1.2%
1
7.2%
13%
8.7%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.4%
7.8%
5.6%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.3%
3.3%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boavista goals (down), columns = Guimaraes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AVS
3.00
Sporting CP
2.65
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.12
SC Braga
2.00
Guimaraes
1.85
Moreirense
1.62
Arouca
1.35
Famalicao
1.24
Casa Pia
1.12
Farense
1.09
Rio Ave
1.09
GIL Vicente
1.06
Estoril
0.97
Estrela
0.97
Boavista
0.94
Portimonense
0.89
Vizela
0.76
Chaves
0.68
Boavista is 0.91 points worse than Guimaraes in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.82
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
2.09
AVS
2.00
FC Porto
1.85
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.53
Estoril
1.44
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.24
Boavista
1.15
Portimonense
1.14
Casa Pia
1.12
Rio Ave
1.12
Famalicao
1.09
Vizela
1.06
Moreirense
1.06
Estrela
0.97
Chaves
0.91
Boavista is 0.38 goals worse than Guimaraes in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.79
Benfica
0.82
Sporting CP
0.85
AVS
1.00
Moreirense
1.03
Guimaraes
1.12
Famalicao
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Casa Pia
1.47
SC Braga
1.47
Arouca
1.47
Farense
1.50
GIL Vicente
1.53
Estrela
1.56
Estoril
1.71
Boavista
1.82
Vizela
1.94
Portimonense
2.11
Chaves
2.12
Boavista is 0.71 goals worse than Guimaraes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto
64%
Benfica
59%
Sporting CP
59%
SC Braga
57%
Arouca
54%
Vizela
50%
GIL Vicente
49%
Rio Ave
49%
Estoril
49%
Guimaraes
48%
Boavista
48%
Famalicao
47%
Estrela
47%
Moreirense
46%
Portimonense
46%
Casa Pia
44%
Chaves
43%
Farense
42%
AVS
35%
Boavista is 0.3 percentage points worse than Guimaraes in terms of average possession (48% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Boavista
For 4.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 14.8 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guimaraes
For 6.9 · Against 5.5 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.8
9.0
2.0
2.3
1.8
29.4
30.2
28.5
vs Stronger (36)
9.6
10.1
8.8
2.3
2.8
1.8
29.2
30.4
27.4
vs Similar (14)
10.8
15.0
9.3
1.4
0.7
1.9
30.0
29.0
30.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
62%
25%
28%
28%
28%
94%
100%
88%
% under line
56%
38%
75%
72%
72%
72%
6%
0%
12%
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
11.1
13.1
2.0
2.3
1.7
27.5
27.8
27.2
vs Stronger (11)
12.0
11.5
13.0
1.6
1.8
1.4
26.3
28.0
23.0
vs Similar (14)
13.0
12.3
13.7
2.9
3.7
2.0
29.0
30.0
28.0
vs Weaker (25)
11.1
10.0
12.7
1.7
1.8
1.6
27.1
26.5
28.0
% over line
69%
56%
86%
30%
35%
25%
86%
88%
83%
% under line
31%
44%
14%
70%
65%
75%
14%
12%
17%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AVS
13.4
Farense
11.4
Estrela
11.2
Vizela
11.0
Casa Pia
10.9
Chaves
10.9
Benfica
10.7
Portimonense
10.4
Guimaraes
10.3
Estoril
10.2
Moreirense
10.1
GIL Vicente
9.9
FC Porto
9.8
Rio Ave
9.7
Arouca
9.7
SC Braga
9.6
Famalicao
9.6
Boavista
9.5
Sporting CP
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arouca
6.8
Boavista
6.7
FC Porto
6.6
Famalicao
6.6
AVS
6.3
Guimaraes
6.2
Moreirense
6.2
Portimonense
6.1
GIL Vicente
6.1
Estrela
6.0
Vizela
5.9
Sporting CP
5.9
Estoril
5.9
Farense
5.8
Chaves
5.8
Benfica
5.3
SC Braga
5.0
Casa Pia
4.7
Rio Ave
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
31.5
Chaves
31.4
Rio Ave
31.4
Farense
30.3
Arouca
30.2
Guimaraes
29.7
Boavista
29.7
Portimonense
29.4
Estoril
28.8
Vizela
28.6
Moreirense
28.4
Casa Pia
28.2
AVS
27.9
GIL Vicente
27.6
FC Porto
27.5
Estrela
27.2
Sporting CP
25.6
SC Braga
25.0
Benfica
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
66.4%
Under 9.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
87.9%
Under 3.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.2%
Under 21.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (23)
0.48
0.74
0.38
0.69
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.29
4.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.27
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.57
1.00
0.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.22
0.00
0.00
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.21
0.88
0.25
0.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.71
0.86
0.75
1.44
vs Stronger (23)
0.57
1.09
0.77
0.85
0.30
1.40
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.43
0.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.87
0.73
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.25
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.89
1.00
0.67
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tiago Morais35%
Róbert Boženík19%
Bruno Lourenço16%
Vincent Sasso12%
Salvador Agra10%
Miguel Reisinho10%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Joel Silva7%
Rodrigo Abascal7%
Gaius Makouta7%
Martim Tavares5%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Machado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastián Pérez46%
Pedro Malheiro35%
Gaius Makouta30%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Chidozie Awaziem25%
Salvador Agra23%
Miguel Reisinho23%
Ilija Vukotić18%
Vincent Sasso18%
Tiago Morais18%
Jeriel De Santis17%
Luís Santos16%
Filipe Ferreira15%
Róbert Boženík13%
Bruno Lourenço12%
Bruno Onyemaechi12%
João Gonçalves12%
Berna11%
Joel Silva7%
Ibrahima Camará7%
Martim Tavares5%
Masaki Watai0%
Machado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Morais12%
Martim Tavares9%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Gaius Makouta7%
Miguel Reisinho6%
Róbert Boženík6%
Luís Santos5%
Chidozie Awaziem4%
Bruno Onyemaechi4%
Filipe Ferreira4%
Salvador Agra3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík42%
Tiago Morais6%
Martim Tavares5%
Pedro Malheiro4%
Rodrigo Abascal3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Salvador Agra0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Gaius Makouta0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Guimaraes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
André Silva45%
Jota Silva33%
João Mendes23%
Tiago Silva17%
Nélson Oliveira13%
Allison Safira12%
Manuel Silva9%
Nuno Santos7%
Bruno Gaspar7%
Nelson Luz7%
Tomás Händel6%
Daniel Silva6%
Ricardo Mangas4%
Jorge Fernandes3%
Tomás Ribeiro3%
Bruno Varela0%
Mikel Villanueva0%
André André0%
Toni Borevković0%
Charles0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Afonso Freitas0%
Miguel Maga0%
Zé Carlos0%
Kaio César0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
André André50%
Nélson Oliveira33%
Tiago Silva28%
Tomás Ribeiro28%
Bruno Gaspar25%
Charles25%
Kaio César25%
Afonso Freitas23%
Manuel Silva22%
Jota Silva21%
Nuno Santos19%
Zé Carlos17%
Jorge Fernandes17%
Mikel Villanueva17%
Tomás Händel16%
João Mendes15%
André Silva14%
Bruno Varela11%
Miguel Maga9%
Toni Borevković9%
Ricardo Mangas9%
Nelson Luz7%
Daniel Silva6%
Allison Safira0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Silva17%
Nélson Oliveira13%
Ricardo Mangas13%
Jota Silva12%
João Mendes12%
André André11%
Nuno Santos11%
Bruno Gaspar11%
André Silva9%
Daniel Silva6%
Jorge Fernandes3%
Tomás Ribeiro3%
Tomás Händel3%
Bruno Varela0%
Mikel Villanueva0%
Nelson Luz0%
Allison Safira0%
Toni Borevković0%
Charles0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Afonso Freitas0%
Manuel Silva0%
Miguel Maga0%
Zé Carlos0%
Kaio César0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Silva32%
Jota Silva30%
João Mendes27%
Kaio César8%
Nuno Santos7%
Tiago Silva7%
Nélson Oliveira7%
Ricardo Mangas4%
Bruno Gaspar4%
Tomás Händel3%
Bruno Varela0%
Mikel Villanueva0%
Nelson Luz0%
Allison Safira0%
André André0%
Toni Borevković0%
Charles0%
Jorge Fernandes0%
Daniel Silva0%
Tomás Ribeiro0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Afonso Freitas0%
Manuel Silva0%
Miguel Maga0%
Zé Carlos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Moreirense
Arouca
Famalicao
Casa Pia
Farense
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Estoril
Estrela
Portimonense
Vizela
Chaves
AVS