Bodrum FK are tipped to lift the win, with a 51% chance of triumph, 27% for a draw and 22% for Pendikspor. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals, most likely a single 1-1 scoreline at 13%. Bodrum’s home form shows they average 1.42 goals for and 1.25 against against similar opposition, while Pendikspor, on the road, average 1.08 for and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 11.5 corners at 85.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 84.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.0%, Under 10.5 corners at 76.9%, Over 1.5 at 74.8%, Under 3.5 at 73.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.6% and Over 21.5 fouls at 72.5%. Bodrum, fresh from a draw against Muğlaspor, and Pendikspor, coming off a win over Antalyaspor, will clash with Bodrum favoured to win.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Bodrum FK secured a 2-0 victory over Pendikspor, matching the forecasted home win. With a pre-match probability of 51%, the favourite’s call was correct. The match saw the most likely 2-goal total, and Bodrum’s 2-goal win aligned with the 26% chance of a 2-goal outcome. Every suggested selection hit: Under 11.5 corners (85.3%), Over 19.5 fouls (84.7%), Over 2.5 cards (81.0%), Under 10.5 corners (76.9%), Over 1.5 (74.8%), Under 3.5 (73.2%), Under 5.5 cards (72.6%), and Over 21.5 fouls (72.5%). Bodrum’s recent form, coming off a draw, and Pendikspor’s recent win, both contributed to a decisive home performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bodrum FK win✓ Hit
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pendikspor win✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bodrum FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.17
1.50
1.07
1.44
1.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.33
1.29
1.42
1.25
1.25
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
0.40
2.00
0.00
2.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Pendikspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pendikspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.07
1.56
0.75
1.29
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.37
1.07
1.60
0.73
1.08
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.7%
2-0 ✓
9.6%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.2%
Bodrum FK goals ↓
Pendikspor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
6.1%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.6%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.2%
5.2%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bodrum FK goals (down), columns = Pendikspor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.13
Amed
1.95
Çorum FK
1.90
Esenler Erokspor
1.90
Bodrum FK
1.71
Pendikspor
1.62
Bandırmaspor
1.58
Keçiörengücü
1.54
Manisa F.K.
1.45
İstanbulspor
1.37
Sarıyer
1.37
Sivasspor
1.35
Iğdır FK
1.32
Vanspor FK
1.29
Boluspor
1.26
Ümraniyespor
1.21
Serik Spor
1.03
Sakaryaspor
0.92
Hatayspor
0.37
Adana Demirspor
0.16
Bodrum FK is 0.09 points better than Pendikspor in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.16
Amed
2.13
Esenler Erokspor
2.08
Keçiörengücü
1.87
Bodrum FK
1.80
Boluspor
1.61
Çorum FK
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.50
İstanbulspor
1.50
Pendikspor
1.49
Vanspor FK
1.37
Iğdır FK
1.37
Ümraniyespor
1.24
Bandırmaspor
1.24
Sakaryaspor
1.22
Sivasspor
1.19
Serik Spor
1.16
Sarıyer
1.16
Hatayspor
0.87
Adana Demirspor
0.58
Bodrum FK is 0.32 goals better than Pendikspor in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Erzurumspor FK
0.71
Bandırmaspor
0.89
Pendikspor
0.90
Esenler Erokspor
0.95
Çorum FK
0.95
Bodrum FK
0.98
Amed
1.11
Keçiörengücü
1.13
Sarıyer
1.16
Sivasspor
1.16
Vanspor FK
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.34
Iğdır FK
1.42
İstanbulspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.47
Boluspor
1.50
Sakaryaspor
1.86
Serik Spor
1.97
Hatayspor
2.68
Adana Demirspor
4.45
Bodrum FK is 0.08 goals worse than Pendikspor in terms of goals conceded per game (0.98 vs 0.90).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Çorum FK
59%
Esenler Erokspor
58%
Boluspor
57%
Iğdır FK
56%
Erzurumspor FK
56%
Vanspor FK
55%
Amed
53%
Pendikspor
52%
Sivasspor
50%
Bodrum FK
49%
İstanbulspor
48%
Sarıyer
48%
Keçiörengücü
48%
Ümraniyespor
47%
Sakaryaspor
47%
Hatayspor
46%
Manisa F.K.
46%
Bandırmaspor
45%
Serik Spor
41%
Adana Demirspor
38%
Bodrum FK is 3.2 percentage points worse than Pendikspor in terms of average possession (49% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bodrum FK
For 3.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pendikspor
For 5.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bodrum FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.4
9.7
3.4
3.4
3.5
24.0
25.5
22.6
vs Stronger (4)
11.3
11.3
-
2.5
3.3
0.0
26.3
26.3
-
vs Similar (37)
8.8
7.9
9.6
3.4
3.4
3.5
24.6
26.5
22.9
vs Weaker (9)
8.9
8.0
9.8
4.0
3.8
4.2
20.9
20.8
21.0
% over line
42%
32%
52%
48%
46%
50%
72%
82%
62%
% under line
58%
68%
48%
52%
54%
50%
28%
18%
38%
This opponent (Pendikspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pendikspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.5
8.6
4.6
4.8
4.4
26.5
26.7
26.4
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
7.5
10.0
4.3
4.0
5.0
23.0
20.5
28.0
vs Similar (45)
8.5
8.6
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.4
26.8
27.5
26.1
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
9.0
9.0
3.0
2.0
4.0
26.5
23.0
30.0
% over line
38%
35%
42%
62%
62%
62%
83%
83%
83%
% under line
62%
65%
58%
38%
38%
38%
17%
17%
17%
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sivasspor
9.5
Bandırmaspor
9.3
Iğdır FK
9.2
Adana Demirspor
9.1
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Amed
9.0
Çorum FK
8.9
Bodrum FK
8.9
Serik Spor
8.9
Hatayspor
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.7
Sakaryaspor
8.6
Esenler Erokspor
8.6
Erzurumspor FK
8.6
Pendikspor
8.6
İstanbulspor
8.4
Vanspor FK
8.4
Keçiörengücü
8.2
Boluspor
8.2
Sarıyer
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sakaryaspor
5.2
Pendikspor
5.2
Vanspor FK
5.2
Çorum FK
5.2
Boluspor
5.1
Erzurumspor FK
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Amed
5.1
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Keçiörengücü
5.0
Hatayspor
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.9
Manisa F.K.
4.8
Bandırmaspor
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.6
Ümraniyespor
4.5
Serik Spor
4.4
Bodrum FK
4.0
Adana Demirspor
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Vanspor FK
28.3
Pendikspor
26.6
Boluspor
25.8
Sakaryaspor
25.4
Erzurumspor FK
24.1
Keçiörengücü
24.0
Bodrum FK
23.8
Hatayspor
23.7
Bandırmaspor
23.5
Manisa F.K.
23.4
Serik Spor
23.4
İstanbulspor
23.3
Sarıyer
23.3
Sivasspor
23.3
Ümraniyespor
23.2
Iğdır FK
23.2
Çorum FK
23.1
Esenler Erokspor
22.7
Amed
22.2
Adana Demirspor
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
34.1%
Under 9.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.4%
Under 3.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.5%
Under 21.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bodrum FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.86
0.57
0.62
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Pendikspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pendikspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.62
0.44
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.48
0.60
0.47
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bodrum FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pendikspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pendikspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pendikspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bodrum FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.64
0.50
0.81
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.79
0.58
0.58
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Pendikspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pendikspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.94
0.31
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.59
1.00
0.27
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Bodrum FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bodrum FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bodrum FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pendikspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pendikspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pendikspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (35)
€18m
IF (38)
€14m
EF (29)
€13m
MF (27)
€12m
SIV (25)
€11m
AME (26)
€11m
İST (37)
€11m
ÇF (32)
€10m
SS (44)
€10m
VF (31)
€10m
EE (25)
€10m
PEN (23)
€9m
BAN (29)
€9m
HAT (38)
€8m
ÜMR (26)
€8m
BOL (28)
€8m
SAK (30)
€8m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
AD (30)
€3m
Bodrum FK's squad is €9m more valuable than Pendikspor's (€18m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (14)
€9m
ÇF (13)
€6m
SIV (7)
€5m
VF (13)
€5m
SAK (12)
€5m
AME (8)
€4m
IF (14)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (12)
€4m
EE (9)
€4m
BAN (10)
€4m
EF (10)
€4m
HAT (15)
€4m
ÜMR (6)
€3m
SS (16)
€3m
PEN (7)
€3m
BOL (8)
€3m
SAR (7)
€2m
KEÇ (8)
€2m
AD (11)
€1m
Bodrum FK's attack is €6m more valuable than Pendikspor's (€9m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€4m
EF (5)
€4m
BF (8)
€3m
AME (7)
€3m
VF (6)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (6)
€2m
PEN (6)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
HAT (8)
€2m
BOL (8)
€2m
SS (10)
€2m
İST (8)
€2m
BAN (5)
€2m
SAK (6)
€2m
KEÇ (6)
€1m
ÇF (5)
€1m
EE (5)
€1m
SAR (4)
€1m
AD (5)
€0m
Bodrum FK and Pendikspor have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (13)
€6m
IF (15)
€5m
SS (18)
€5m
EF (14)
€5m
İST (17)
€5m
MF (10)
€5m
EE (11)
€5m
SIV (12)
€4m
AME (11)
€4m
BOL (12)
€3m
PEN (10)
€3m
ÇF (14)
€3m
ÜMR (13)
€3m
BAN (14)
€3m
HAT (15)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
VF (12)
€2m
SAK (12)
€2m
AD (14)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
Bodrum FK's defence is €2m more valuable than Pendikspor's (€6m vs €3m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
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Erzurumspor FK
Çorum FK
Esenler Erokspor
Amed
Keçiörengücü
Bandırmaspor
Manisa F.K.
İstanbulspor
Sarıyer
Sivasspor
Iğdır FK
Vanspor FK
Boluspor
Ümraniyespor
Serik Spor
Sakaryaspor
Hatayspor
Adana Demirspor