Boreham Wood’s recent three-game winning streak fuels the model’s confidence in a home win, reflected in the 65% home win probability and a 21% draw chance against a weaker opponent at home. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a lively affair, yet the most likely total remains 2 goals, with a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 10.6% probability, aligning with Boreham Wood’s 2.36 average goals scored and 1.43 conceded at home versus a stronger side. Altrincham, playing away against a stronger opponent, averages only one goal scored and one conceded, which explains the model’s 14% away win probability.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Home +2 handicap (95.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.2%), Under 5.5 (90.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.6%), and Home or Draw (85.9%). Each selection is listed with its exact percentage, and no other figures are repeated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Boreham Wood win
62.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Altrincham win
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Boreham Wood
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.63
2.20
1.67
1.87
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
2.10
1.52
2.36
1.43
1.87
1.60
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altrincham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.37
1.29
1.07
1.00
1.62
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.04
1.41
1.15
1.08
0.93
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.0%
Under 2.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.6%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
4.8%
Boreham Wood goals ↓
Altrincham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
3.4%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.6%
10%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.2%
7.0%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.8%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boreham Wood goals (down), columns = Altrincham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Boreham Wood is 0.66 points better than Altrincham in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Boreham Wood is 0.80 goals better than Altrincham in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Boreham Wood is 0.17 goals better than Altrincham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Boreham Wood is 5.6 percentage points better than Altrincham in terms of average possession (58% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Boreham Wood or Draw
84.6%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
15%
covers Boreham Wood + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood or Altrincham
78.2%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
15%
covers Boreham Wood + Altrincham
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Altrincham
37.2%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
15%
covers Draw + Altrincham
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5
Over
88.1%
Under
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5
Over
62.8%
Under
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 3.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 0.5
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 1.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 2.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Boreham Wood, so a minus line means Boreham Wood give that many goals of a start and Altrincham receive them. At -1, Boreham Wood must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Boreham Wood win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Boreham Wood)
Boreham Wood -2
20.9%
Draw -2
19.3%
Altrincham +2
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Boreham Wood)
Boreham Wood -1
40.2%
Draw -1
22.6%
Altrincham +1
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Boreham Wood)
Boreham Wood +1
84.6%
Draw +1
9.9%
Altrincham -1
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Boreham Wood)
Boreham Wood +2
94.5%
Draw +2
4.1%
Altrincham -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boreham Wood
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
0.90
0.66
0.86
0.57
0.93
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altrincham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.86
0.36
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.52
0.85
0.38
0.29
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boreham Wood
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.40
1.00
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
1.21
0.86
1.50
0.86
0.93
0.87
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Altrincham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.43
0.71
0.69
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.89
0.31
0.69
0.64
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →