Boreham Wood’s recent three-game winning streak fuels optimism for a home victory, while Fylde’s win-draw-loss pattern suggests a cautious approach. The model favours a Boreham Wood win, with a 56% chance, 23% for a draw and 21% for a Fylde win. The average goals expected is 3.3, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.1% chance.
Boreham Wood, playing at home against a similarly-ranked opponent, averages 0.0 goals scored and 5.0 conceded, whereas Fylde, on the road, averages 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 6.5 (94.6%), Home +2 handicap (91.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.9%), Under 5.5 (87.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.1%) and Over 1.5 (85.6%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Boreham Wood win
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylde win
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Boreham Wood
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.63
2.20
1.67
1.87
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
2.10
1.52
2.36
1.43
1.87
1.60
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F
Fylde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.47
1.47
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.50
1.83
1.17
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
1.55
1.12
1.62
1.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.3%
Under 2.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.4%
Under 3.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.8%
No
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
1-0
5.8%
3-0
4.7%
Boreham Wood goals ↓
Fylde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.6%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
1
5.8%
10%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.7%
6.4%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.4%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boreham Wood goals (down), columns = Fylde goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Boreham Wood is 0.52 points better than Fylde in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Boreham Wood is 0.55 goals better than Fylde in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Boreham Wood is 0.21 goals better than Fylde in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Boreham Wood or Draw
75.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
23%
25%
covers Boreham Wood + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood or Fylde
76.8%
Avg Implied -
52%
23%
25%
covers Boreham Wood + Fylde
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fylde
47.8%
Avg Implied -
52%
23%
25%
covers Draw + Fylde
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5
Over
87.1%
Under
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 3.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Boreham Wood, so a minus line means Boreham Wood give that many goals of a start and Fylde receive them. At -1, Boreham Wood must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Boreham Wood win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Boreham Wood)
Boreham Wood -2
15.4%
Draw -2
16.0%
Fylde +2
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Boreham Wood)
Boreham Wood -1
31.4%
Draw -1
20.8%
Fylde +1
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Boreham Wood)
Boreham Wood +1
75.4%
Draw +1
13.6%
Fylde -1
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Boreham Wood)
Boreham Wood +2
89.0%
Draw +2
7.2%
Fylde -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boreham Wood
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
0.90
0.66
0.86
0.57
0.93
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F
Fylde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.47
0.60
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.92
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boreham Wood
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.40
1.00
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
1.21
0.86
1.50
0.86
0.93
0.87
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F
Fylde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.87
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.88
1.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.45
0.85
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →