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Boston Utd vs Aldershot Result & Analysis

Date: 14/09/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Boston Utd
Boston Utd
Vs
29%
26%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Referee: A Miller
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boston Utd win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 2.92
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.8%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.54
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win✗ Miss
45.3%
Avg Implied 42.3% · @ 2.18
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Boston UtdBoston Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W03L04L02L11D20W13L30W12LA·SIL03/08H·SIL06/08H·ROC10/08H·FOR17/08A·SOU20/08H·TAM24/08A·YOR26/08H·YEO31/08A·SUT07/09H·HAR10/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.600.672.171.500.75
vs Stronger (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (8)1.001.880.602.601.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W33D33D10W12L41W23L43W02L00DA·GAT17/04A·DAG20/04H·FOR10/08A·HAL17/08A·BRA20/08H·OLD24/08A·TAM26/08H·MAI31/08H·ROC07/09A·EBB10/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.731.731.471.402.00
vs Stronger (20)1.601.951.921.751.122.25
vs Similar (10)1.501.301.000.331.711.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.9%
Under 1.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.71+4.1%
Under 2.5
41.2%
@ 2.06-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.9%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.2%
0-1
7.0%
0-2
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.8%
1-3
5.3%
Boston Utd goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
01234
05.8%7.0%7.0%4.0%1.7%
15.3%12%9.3%5.3%2.3%
24.2%7.2%6.2%3.5%1.5%
31.9%3.2%2.8%1.6%0.7%
40.6%1.1%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boston Utd goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Barnet
2.22
York
2.09
Forest Green
1.80
Rochdale
1.61
Oldham
1.59
Halifax
1.52
Southend
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Tamworth
1.39
Altrincham
1.39
Sutton
1.30
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Solihull
1.26
Woking
1.26
Aldershot
1.24
Braintree Town
1.22
Yeovil
1.22
Boston Utd
1.20
Wealdstone
1.15
Dag and Red
1.13
Maidenhead
1.13
Fylde
0.87
Ebbsfleet
0.48
Boston Utd is 0.04 points worse than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Barnet
2.11
York
2.07
Gateshead
1.65
Forest Green
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Altrincham
1.48
Tamworth
1.41
Oldham
1.39
Dag and Red
1.33
Solihull
1.33
Sutton
1.28
Southend
1.28
Hartlepool
1.28
Eastleigh
1.26
Maidenhead
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Boston Utd
1.17
Woking
1.13
Braintree Town
1.11
Yeovil
1.11
Halifax
1.09
Fylde
1.09
Ebbsfleet
0.83
Boston Utd is 0.33 goals worse than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Barnet
0.83
Forest Green
0.91
York
0.91
Rochdale
0.96
Halifax
1.00
Oldham
1.04
Southend
1.04
Braintree Town
1.28
Woking
1.28
Yeovil
1.30
Eastleigh
1.33
Dag and Red
1.35
Altrincham
1.35
Hartlepool
1.35
Sutton
1.39
Boston Utd
1.46
Solihull
1.46
Gateshead
1.48
Tamworth
1.57
Maidenhead
1.63
Wealdstone
1.65
Aldershot
1.80
Fylde
1.85
Ebbsfleet
2.13
Boston Utd is 0.35 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
York
63%
Barnet
62%
Gateshead
60%
Rochdale
55%
Southend
53%
Altrincham
51%
Oldham
51%
Aldershot
51%
Woking
50%
Forest Green
50%
Solihull
50%
Yeovil
49%
Sutton
49%
Wealdstone
49%
Halifax
49%
Fylde
46%
Eastleigh
46%
Hartlepool
45%
Braintree Town
45%
Ebbsfleet
44%
Maidenhead
41%
Tamworth
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Boston UtdBoston Utd

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L01L10W00D12L10W10WH·ROC10/08H·FOR17/08A·SOU20/08H·TAM24/08A·YOR26/08H·YEO31/08A·SUT07/09H·HAR10/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.000.601.400.330.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.501.000.601.400.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L21W10W10W10W11D11D02L00DA·GAT17/04A·DAG20/04H·FOR10/08A·HAL17/08A·BRA20/08H·OLD24/08A·TAM26/08H·MAI31/08H·ROC07/09A·EBB10/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.770.870.730.800.80
vs Stronger (20)0.800.900.920.920.620.88
vs Similar (10)0.900.500.670.001.000.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Boston UtdBoston Utd

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L01L01L20W01L20W02LH·ROC10/08H·FOR17/08A·SOU20/08H·TAM24/08A·YOR26/08H·YEO31/08A·SUT07/09H·HAR10/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.880.001.201.330.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.500.880.001.201.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W32W12L00D02L31W12L32W00D00DA·GAT17/04A·DAG20/04H·FOR10/08A·HAL17/08A·BRA20/08H·OLD24/08A·TAM26/08H·MAI31/08H·ROC07/09A·EBB10/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.870.730.601.20
vs Stronger (20)0.801.051.000.830.501.38
vs Similar (10)0.600.800.330.330.711.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards81.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards71.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Boston Utd and Aldershot have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Boston Utd and Aldershot have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Boston Utd and Aldershot have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Boston Utd and Aldershot have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
BU wins
0
Draws
0
ALD wins

Head-to-head

Boston Utd vs Aldershot · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Boston UtdBoston Utd

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/09/24HBU Vs Hartlepool1-2
07/09/24ASutton Vs BU0-3
31/08/24HBU Vs Yeovil1-3
26/08/24AYork Vs BU0-2
24/08/24HBU Vs Tamworth1-1
20/08/24ASouthend Vs BU2-0
17/08/24HBU Vs Forest Green0-4
10/08/24HBU Vs Rochdale0-3
06/08/24HBU Vs Sileby Rangers1-0
03/08/24ASileby Rangers Vs BU1-1

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/09/24AEbbsfleet Vs ALD0-0
07/09/24HALD Vs Rochdale0-2
31/08/24HALD Vs Maidenhead4-3
26/08/24ATamworth Vs ALD3-2
24/08/24HALD Vs Oldham4-1
20/08/24ABraintree Town Vs ALD2-1
17/08/24AHalifax Vs ALD0-1
10/08/24HALD Vs Forest Green3-3
20/04/24ADag and Red Vs ALD3-3
17/04/24AGateshead Vs ALD0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Boston Utd
Boston Utd
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.10
HomeLLDLL0.67
AwayDLWW1.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%17%50%
AVG goals2.602.832.25
Over 1.5 %90%83%100%
Over 2.5 %50%67%25%
Over 3.5 %20%33%0%
Scored1.000.671.50
Conceded1.602.170.75
BTTS40%50%25%
Clean Sheet30%17%50%
Corners---
Cards4.505.203.33
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLD1.52
HomeLDWWL1.84
AwayDWLLD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%36%
AVG goals3.383.483.28
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %62%52%72%
Over 3.5 %40%44%36%
Scored1.641.921.36
Conceded1.741.561.92
BTTS64%64%64%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners---
Cards4.424.444.40

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BarnetBarnet46102
67%
2.2
9738+59
2.9
78%
61%
35%
-
0%
4.0
61%
-
0%
4
0132.10.8
62%
2YorkYork4696
63%
2.1
9542+53
3.0
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
1
0012.10.9
63%
3Forest GreenForest Green4683
48%
1.8
6942+27
2.4
76%
43%
20%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
1
0001.50.9
50%
4RochdaleRochdale4674
46%
1.6
6944+25
2.5
67%
48%
26%
-
0%
2.8
30%
-
0%
2
1111.51.0
55%
5OldhamOldham4673
41%
1.6
6448+16
2.4
74%
43%
26%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
3
1111.41.0
51%
6HalifaxHalifax4670
41%
1.5
5046+4
2.1
59%
35%
17%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
49%
7SouthendSouthend4668
37%
1.5
5948+11
2.3
74%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
46%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
53%
8GatesheadGateshead4667
41%
1.5
7668+8
3.1
80%
57%
46%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
60%
9AltrinchamAltrincham4664
37%
1.4
6862+6
2.8
78%
63%
26%
-
0%
4.3
70%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
51%
10TamworthTamworth4664
37%
1.4
6572-7
3.0
87%
54%
30%
-
0%
4.8
65%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
40%
11HartlepoolHartlepool4660
30%
1.3
5962-3
2.6
70%
41%
24%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
45%
12SuttonSutton4660
33%
1.3
5964-5
2.7
74%
52%
24%
-
0%
4.6
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
49%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
30%
1.3
5861-3
2.6
78%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.5
65%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
46%
14SolihullSolihull4658
35%
1.3
6167-6
2.8
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
50%
15WokingWoking4658
28%
1.3
5259-7
2.4
74%
46%
24%
-
0%
4.5
70%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
50%
16AldershotAldershot4657
30%
1.2
6983-14
3.3
85%
63%
43%
-
0%
4.3
63%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
51%
17Braintree TownBraintree Town4656
33%
1.2
5159-8
2.4
63%
46%
26%
-
0%
4.4
65%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
45%
18YeovilYeovil4656
33%
1.2
5160-9
2.4
65%
50%
24%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
49%
19Boston UtdBoston Utd4655
33%
1.2
5467-13
2.6
76%
59%
28%
-
0%
4.1
54%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
20WealdstoneWealdstone4653
28%
1.2
5676-20
2.9
80%
52%
33%
-
0%
3.9
61%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
49%
21
DA
Dag and Red		4652
26%
1.1
6162-1
2.7
76%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
22
M
Maidenhead		4652
30%
1.1
5775-18
2.9
76%
50%
39%
-
0%
3.3
43%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
41%
23
F
Fylde		4640
24%
0.9
5085-35
2.9
83%
57%
26%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
46%
24
E
Ebbsfleet		4622
7%
0.5
3898-60
3.0
76%
54%
43%
-
0%
3.8
52%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
44%
England: National League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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