Boston United are poised for a tightly contested encounter against Fylde, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are almost even: a 37% chance of a Boston victory, 29% for a draw and 34% for a Fylde win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% probability. Boston’s recent form shows a 2-game winning streak, having edged Altrincham 1-0, while Fylde, coming off a 2-3 loss to Woking, has struggled away, averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.82 conceded against weaker opposition. The model’s selections are diverse: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Under 5.5 (95.0%), Under 4.5 (87.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.4%) and Home +2 handicap (84.8%). These picks reflect the uncertainty and the balanced nature of the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Boston Utd win
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylde win
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Boston Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.33
1.20
1.13
1.87
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (28)
1.54
1.32
1.20
1.13
1.92
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F
Fylde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.47
1.47
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.50
1.83
1.17
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
1.55
1.12
1.62
1.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.1%
2-1
7.9%
0-0
7.9%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
5.6%
Boston Utd goals ↓
Fylde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
8.1%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.4%
13%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.6%
7.9%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.5%
3.5%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boston Utd goals (down), columns = Fylde goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Boston Utd is 0.09 points worse than Fylde in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Boston Utd is 0.08 goals worse than Fylde in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Boston Utd is 0.00 goals better than Fylde in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Boston Utd or Draw
61.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Boston Utd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd or Fylde
71.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Boston Utd + Fylde
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fylde
66.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
28%
38%
covers Draw + Fylde
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Boston Utd, so a minus line means Boston Utd give that many goals of a start and Fylde receive them. At -1, Boston Utd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Boston Utd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Boston Utd)
Boston Utd -2
5.3%
Draw -2
10.0%
Fylde +2
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Boston Utd)
Boston Utd -1
15.3%
Draw -1
18.2%
Fylde +1
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Boston Utd)
Boston Utd +1
61.7%
Draw +1
19.8%
Fylde -1
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Boston Utd)
Boston Utd +2
81.5%
Draw +2
11.7%
Fylde -2
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boston Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.53
0.47
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.43
0.53
0.47
1.08
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F
Fylde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.47
0.60
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.92
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boston Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.67
0.67
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.89
0.67
0.67
0.85
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
F
Fylde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.87
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.88
1.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.45
0.85
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →