The model favours an away win, with Southend having a 49% chance of triumph, Boston only 23% and a draw at 27%. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13% probability. Boston, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.13 conceded, while Southend, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. The match is likely to be a tight affair, with both sides showing modest offensive output. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.0%), Away +2 handicap (90.9%) and Under 4.5 (86.7%). Both teams are coming off defeats - Boston fell 1-2 to Boreham Wood and Southend lost 1-3 to Kidderminster - adding to the uncertainty. The overall shape suggests a low-scoring, closely contested match with Southend the slight favourite.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Boston Utd win
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend win
49.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Boston Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.33
1.20
1.13
1.87
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (28)
1.54
1.32
1.20
1.13
1.92
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.20
1.80
1.07
2.07
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.50
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.00
1.19
2.00
0.85
2.00
1.54
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
9.1%
0-0
8.4%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.0%
Boston Utd goals ↓
Southend goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
10%
9.1%
4.8%
1.9%
1
6.3%
13%
9.5%
5.0%
2.0%
2
3.9%
6.2%
4.9%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.3%
2.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boston Utd goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Boston Utd is 0.44 points worse than Southend in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Boston Utd is 0.40 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Boston Utd is 0.44 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Boston Utd or Draw
51.0%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Boston Utd + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd or Southend
72.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Boston Utd + Southend
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Southend
76.4%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Draw + Southend
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Boston Utd, so a minus line means Boston Utd give that many goals of a start and Southend receive them. At -1, Boston Utd must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Boston Utd win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Boston Utd)
Boston Utd -2
2.6%
Draw -2
6.5%
Southend +2
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Boston Utd)
Boston Utd -1
9.1%
Draw -1
14.4%
Southend +1
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Boston Utd)
Boston Utd +1
51.0%
Draw +1
22.7%
Southend -1
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Boston Utd)
Boston Utd +2
73.7%
Draw +2
15.3%
Southend -2
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boston Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.53
0.47
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.43
0.53
0.47
1.08
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.40
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.62
1.15
0.38
0.85
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boston Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.67
0.67
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.89
0.67
0.67
0.85
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
0.73
0.67
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.58
0.85
0.46
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Boston Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boston Utd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Utd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Boston Utd and Southend have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Boston Utd and Southend have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Boston Utd and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Boston Utd and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sutton
Yeovil
Boreham Wood
Harrogate
Eastleigh
Aldershot
Halifax
Hartlepool
Altrincham
Carlisle
Wealdstone
Scunthorpe
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Barrow
Tamworth
Solihull