This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Modena
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.17
1.27
1.20
0.93
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
1.13
1.33
1.17
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.40
1.50
2.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.3%
@ 2.35+4.6%
Under 2.5
55.7%
@ 1.55-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.4%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.2%
Brescia goals ↓
Modena goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
8.2%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.0%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.9%
8.7%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.6%
3.9%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brescia goals (down), columns = Modena goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sassuolo
2.16
Pisa
1.95
Spezia
1.74
Cremonese
1.62
Juve Stabia
1.49
Catanzaro
1.37
Cesena
1.36
Palermo
1.33
Bari
1.26
Sudtirol
1.21
Modena
1.18
Carrarese
1.18
Reggiana
1.16
Mantova
1.16
Brescia
1.13
Frosinone
1.13
Sampdoria
1.13
Salernitana
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Cosenza
0.89
Brescia is 0.05 points worse than Modena in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sassuolo
2.05
Cremonese
1.64
Pisa
1.63
Spezia
1.55
Palermo
1.33
Sudtirol
1.32
Catanzaro
1.29
Modena
1.26
Mantova
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Brescia
1.11
Reggiana
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.10
Bari
1.08
Carrarese
1.03
Sampdoria
1.03
Frosinone
0.97
Salernitana
0.95
Cosenza
0.84
Cittadella
0.82
Brescia is 0.16 goals worse than Modena in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spezia
0.88
Pisa
0.97
Sassuolo
1.00
Bari
1.05
Juve Stabia
1.10
Palermo
1.13
Cremonese
1.14
Catanzaro
1.20
Cesena
1.23
Salernitana
1.26
Sampdoria
1.26
Brescia
1.26
Carrarese
1.29
Frosinone
1.32
Modena
1.32
Reggiana
1.37
Cittadella
1.42
Cosenza
1.47
Mantova
1.47
Sudtirol
1.50
Brescia is 0.05 goals better than Modena in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
62%
Cremonese
60%
Catanzaro
55%
Sassuolo
52%
Salernitana
52%
Juve Stabia
52%
Bari
51%
Spezia
50%
Palermo
49%
Carrarese
49%
Cosenza
49%
Cesena
49%
Modena
48%
Sampdoria
48%
Frosinone
47%
Brescia
46%
Pisa
46%
Cittadella
45%
Reggiana
44%
Sudtirol
44%
Brescia is 2.0 percentage points worse than Modena in terms of average possession (46% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brescia
For 4.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 15.1 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Modena
For 4.2 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 15.1 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brescia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.9
9.8
5.4
5.7
5.1
29.5
29.4
29.5
vs Stronger (23)
9.1
9.4
8.7
5.2
5.6
4.8
28.5
28.2
28.8
vs Similar (26)
9.7
8.3
10.7
5.5
5.7
5.3
30.5
31.1
30.1
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
46%
42%
50%
80%
83%
77%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
54%
58%
50%
20%
17%
23%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Modena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.3
5.5
5.7
5.4
28.9
28.1
29.8
vs Stronger (5)
9.2
5.5
11.7
3.8
2.5
4.7
23.6
25.0
22.7
vs Similar (38)
9.5
10.1
9.0
5.9
6.2
5.6
30.1
28.7
31.5
vs Weaker (7)
8.1
7.8
8.7
4.9
4.8
5.0
26.3
26.5
26.0
% over line
48%
52%
44%
90%
88%
92%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
10%
12%
8%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Juve Stabia
10.6
Palermo
10.5
Cosenza
10.4
Spezia
10.0
Salernitana
9.9
Bari
9.7
Sassuolo
9.7
Frosinone
9.7
Cremonese
9.5
Cesena
9.4
Brescia
9.4
Modena
9.3
Cittadella
9.0
Sampdoria
9.0
Sudtirol
9.0
Catanzaro
9.0
Mantova
8.9
Reggiana
8.8
Carrarese
8.6
Pisa
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.6
Juve Stabia
6.3
Spezia
6.2
Reggiana
5.9
Bari
5.8
Mantova
5.7
Pisa
5.7
Sampdoria
5.7
Modena
5.5
Brescia
5.4
Cittadella
5.3
Catanzaro
5.3
Cremonese
5.2
Sudtirol
5.1
Palermo
4.8
Carrarese
4.8
Frosinone
4.7
Salernitana
4.6
Cesena
4.6
Sassuolo
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
35.7
Juve Stabia
33.1
Spezia
32.8
Cittadella
31.1
Reggiana
30.6
Bari
30.5
Sampdoria
30.4
Sudtirol
30.1
Brescia
29.5
Cesena
29.1
Modena
28.9
Catanzaro
28.8
Cosenza
28.8
Palermo
28.0
Carrarese
28.0
Cremonese
28.0
Pisa
27.9
Salernitana
26.3
Frosinone
26.2
Sassuolo
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.0%
Under 9.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.0%
Under 3.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.1%
Under 21.5
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brescia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.53
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.56
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.20
0.60
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Modena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.61
0.58
0.58
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.60
0.50
1.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brescia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brescia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.73
0.67
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.93
0.78
0.78
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.43
0.40
0.40
0.44
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Modena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Modena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.73
0.60
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.52
0.75
0.58
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brescia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Modena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brescia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabriele Moncini20%
Gennaro Borrelli19%
Flavio Bianchi17%
Birkir Bjarnason15%
Riccardo Fogliata14%
Matthias Verreth12%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah8%
Davide Adorni8%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Ante Matej Jurić6%
Gabriele Calvani5%
Andrea Cistana4%
Nicolas Galazzi4%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Dimitri Bisoli3%
Michele Besaggio3%
Niccolò Corrado3%
Lorenzo Dickmann0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Luca D'Andrea0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fabrizio Paghera38%
Davide Adorni30%
Lorenzo Dickmann26%
Dimitri Bisoli26%
Matthias Verreth24%
Gennaro Borrelli22%
Ante Matej Jurić19%
Andrea Papetti16%
Birkir Bjarnason15%
Giacomo Olzer15%
Michele Besaggio14%
Gabriele Calvani14%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah12%
Luca D'Andrea11%
Andrea Cistana9%
Flavio Bianchi8%
Nicolas Galazzi8%
Gabriele Moncini8%
Luca Lezzerini8%
Alexander Jallow6%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Niccolò Corrado3%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Galazzi21%
Dimitri Bisoli19%
Ante Matej Jurić9%
Andrea Cistana9%
Lorenzo Dickmann5%
Niccolò Corrado5%
Andrea Papetti5%
Gabriele Moncini4%
Birkir Bjarnason4%
Giacomo Olzer4%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Matthias Verreth3%
Gennaro Borrelli3%
Davide Adorni0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Flavio Bianchi0%
Luca D'Andrea0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Gabriele Calvani0%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gennaro Borrelli33%
Gabriele Moncini24%
Luca D'Andrea11%
Matthias Verreth9%
Davide Adorni8%
Lorenzo Dickmann8%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Massimo Bertagnoli7%
Dimitri Bisoli6%
Flavio Bianchi4%
Birkir Bjarnason4%
Ante Matej Jurić3%
Andrea Cistana0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Nicolas Galazzi0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Gabriele Calvani0%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Modena
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Antonio Palumbo25%
Pedro Mendes19%
Ettore Gliozzi17%
Giuseppe Caso17%
Gady Beyuku15%
Fabio Abiuso12%
Grégoire Defrel12%
Simone Santoro11%
Alessandro Di Pardo8%
Kleis Bozhanaj7%
Cristian Cauz4%
Alessandro Dellavalle4%
Mattia Caldara4%
Riyad Idrissi3%
Luca Magnino3%
Matteo Cotali3%
Fabio Gerli3%
Giovanni Zaro3%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Thomas Battistella0%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Antonio Pergreffi0%
Eric Botteghin0%
Edoardo Duca0%
Fabio Ponsi0%
Issiaka Kamate0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonio Pergreffi43%
Simone Santoro31%
Antonio Palumbo31%
Giovanni Zaro25%
Gady Beyuku23%
Edoardo Duca22%
Luca Magnino20%
Matteo Cotali19%
Thomas Battistella19%
Stipe Vulikić17%
Ettore Gliozzi17%
Cristian Cauz16%
Alessandro Dellavalle16%
Mattia Caldara15%
Fabio Gerli11%
Riyad Idrissi10%
Issiaka Kamate10%
Grégoire Defrel8%
Alessandro Di Pardo8%
Giuseppe Caso7%
Fabio Abiuso6%
Kleis Bozhanaj4%
Riccardo Gagno3%
Eric Botteghin0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Fabio Ponsi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Antonio Palumbo25%
Grégoire Defrel15%
Giuseppe Caso10%
Fabio Gerli9%
Alessandro Di Pardo8%
Kleis Bozhanaj7%
Fabio Abiuso6%
Giovanni Zaro6%
Edoardo Duca6%
Ettore Gliozzi4%
Cristian Cauz4%
Thomas Battistella4%
Mattia Caldara0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Simone Santoro0%
Luca Magnino0%
Antonio Pergreffi0%
Eric Botteghin0%
Matteo Cotali0%
Pedro Mendes0%
Fabio Ponsi0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Issiaka Kamate0%
Riyad Idrissi0%
Gady Beyuku0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Mendes19%
Antonio Palumbo17%
Issiaka Kamate10%
Kleis Bozhanaj7%
Giuseppe Caso7%
Ettore Gliozzi4%
Alessandro Dellavalle4%
Grégoire Defrel4%
Luca Magnino3%
Simone Santoro3%
Giovanni Zaro3%
Mattia Caldara0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Thomas Battistella0%
Riccardo Gagno0%
Cristian Cauz0%
Antonio Pergreffi0%
Fabio Gerli0%
Eric Botteghin0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Matteo Cotali0%
Edoardo Duca0%
Fabio Ponsi0%
Fabio Abiuso0%
Riyad Idrissi0%
Gady Beyuku0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Sassuolo
Pisa
Spezia
Cremonese
Juve Stabia
Catanzaro
Cesena
Palermo
Bari
Sudtirol
Carrarese
Mantova
Sampdoria
Reggiana
Frosinone
Salernitana
Cittadella
Cosenza