Brighton hosts Aston Villa in the Premier League on August 23. Aston Villa's recent form has been impressive, with a 3-game winning run, but they were defeated by Manchester City in their last outing. In contrast, Brighton has struggled, suffering two consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Manchester United. The model predicts a home win, with Brighton's home scoring and conceding stats against similar opponents averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1 goal conceded. Aston Villa, meanwhile, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
The model predicts a total of 2 goals, with a most likely scoreline of 1-1 (14%). The expected total goals are 2.5. Brighton is favored to win, with a 39% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of Aston Villa winning. The model's selections include an Under 3.5 goal match (74.8%), Over 1.5 goals (73.5%), a Home or Away win (72.3%), and a Home or Draw win (71.9%, with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The final score was 4-0, a home win that matched the model’s prediction. The model had picked a home win with a 44 % probability, and it was correct. The favoured result landed, and most of the selections also hit. Under 7.5 goals was a 99.3 % hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals98.5 % hit, Under 6.597.9 % hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals97.2 % hit, Away under 3.5 goals96.8 % hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals95.1 % hit, and Under 5.594.3 % hit. The only miss was Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6 %. Brighton’s recent form note says they are coming off a win, while Aston Villa are coming off a defeat.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brighton win✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied 43.0% · @ 2.21
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.28
Dafabet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.22
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.50
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.60
10Bet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Aston Villa win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.17
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brighton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.43
1.07
1.06
1.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.43
1.09
1.50
1.08
1.36
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.13
2.07
1.33
1.27
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.12
2.08
1.46
1.09
0.73
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.20
2.00
0.50
1.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.5%
@ 1.24+0.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
@ 3.91-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.04
Superbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.8%
@ 1.78-2.7%
Under 2.5
49.2%
@ 2.05+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.82
SBO
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Under
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
SBO
2.06
Betano
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.7%
@ 2.86-4.1%
Under 3.5
71.3%
@ 1.40+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Betano
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.90
Under
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
@ 1.63-2.2%
No
44.6%
@ 2.21+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
William Hil
1.65
No
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.23
888Sport
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.44+6.0%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.45+3.7%
1-0
9.0%@ 8.46+3.5%
0-0
7.9%@ 11.25+3.7%
2-0
7.8%@ 11.15+3.6%
1-2
7.1%@ 10.26+2.5%
0-1
6.7%@ 10.74+2.3%
2-2
5.4%@ 11.96+1.5%
Brighton goals ↓
Aston Villa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
6.7%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.0%
13%
7.1%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.2%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.0%
4.7%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brighton goals (down), columns = Aston Villa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Brighton is 0.32 points worse than Aston Villa in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Brighton is 0.11 goals worse than Aston Villa in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Brighton is 0.08 goals better than Aston Villa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Brighton is 0.1 percentage points better than Aston Villa in terms of average possession (53% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brighton
For 5.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 9.0 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aston Villa
For 5.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brighton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.1
10.3
4.0
3.6
4.3
22.1
21.8
22.4
vs Stronger (9)
8.0
7.5
8.4
4.6
5.0
4.2
24.1
23.8
24.4
vs Similar (38)
10.0
9.4
10.5
4.1
3.3
4.7
21.6
21.3
21.8
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
-
12.0
2.0
-
2.0
23.7
-
23.7
% over line
58%
41%
71%
56%
55%
57%
54%
45%
61%
% under line
42%
59%
29%
44%
45%
43%
46%
55%
39%
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.7
9.2
3.8
3.5
4.0
23.7
23.8
23.7
vs Stronger (4)
9.0
8.5
9.5
3.2
3.5
3.0
20.2
21.0
19.5
vs Similar (34)
10.0
10.5
9.6
4.0
3.8
4.2
22.6
22.1
23.0
vs Weaker (12)
8.1
8.3
7.8
3.3
3.0
3.8
28.2
28.4
28.0
% over line
58%
64%
52%
54%
52%
56%
68%
68%
68%
% under line
42%
36%
48%
46%
48%
44%
32%
32%
32%
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Tottenham
9.9
Brighton
9.8
Coventry
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Everton
9.2
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.1
Aston Villa
23.7
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Chelsea
23.0
Tottenham
23.0
Sunderland
22.7
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Everton
22.0
Leeds
21.9
Manchester United
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Hull
21.4
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Coventry
21.0
Fulham
20.2
Brentford
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.0%
@ 1.74-5.4%
Under 9.5
52.0%
@ 2.00+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.85
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.99
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.6%
@ 1.67-3.4%
Under 3.5
47.4%
@ 2.12+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
Unibet
2.16
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.6%
@ 1.67+0.3%
Under 21.5
44.4%
@ 2.07-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
Under
Superbet
2.07
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Brighton or Draw✓ Hit
71.9%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.35
Edge
+2.1%
44%
28%
28%
covers Brighton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Brighton or Aston Villa✓ Hit
72.3%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.1%
44%
28%
28%
covers Brighton + Aston Villa
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Aston Villa✗ Miss
55.8%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.66
Edge
-1.0%
44%
28%
28%
covers Draw + Aston Villa
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
SBO
1.69
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Brighton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.3%
@ 1.20+0.4%
Under
21.7%
@ 4.22-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
888Sport
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Under
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.41
Bet365
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Brighton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.2%
@ 2.01-1.4%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.75+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Under
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Brighton over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.8%
@ 4.24-2.2%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.20+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.46
888Sport
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Brighton over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.9%
@ 9.72-2.7%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.04+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Under
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Aston Villa over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
69.2%
@ 1.31-1.9%
Under
30.8%
@ 3.22+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
888Sport
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Under
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.28
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Aston Villa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.0%
@ 2.53-4.0%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.48+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
Marathonbet
2.63
Betfair
2.63
888Sport
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Aston Villa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 5.89-4.2%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.11+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
6.50
1xBet
6.30
Marathonbet
6.25
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Aston Villa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 13.43-3.9%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
19.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Under
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Brighton, so a minus line means Brighton give that many goals of a start and Aston Villa receive them. At -1, Brighton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Brighton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Brighton)Actual: Brighton
Brighton -2
9.1%
@ 8.57-1.4%
Draw -2
13.7%
@ 6.24-0.7%
Aston Villa +2
77.2%
@ 1.20+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
8.70
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Marathonbet
6.15
10Bet
6.00
Away
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Handicap -1 (Brighton)Actual: Brighton
Brighton -1
22.8%
@ 4.01+0.3%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 3.90-1.7%
Aston Villa +1
55.8%
@ 1.66+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Draw
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.82
Away
Marathonbet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Handicap +1 (Brighton)Actual: Brighton
Brighton +1
71.9%
@ 1.35+5.1%
Draw +1
16.2%
@ 4.73-2.8%
Aston Villa -1
11.9%
@ 6.33-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Draw
Superbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Away
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Marathonbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Brighton)Actual: Brighton
Brighton +2
88.1%
@ 1.09+5.2%
Draw +2
8.1%
@ 8.50-2.5%
Aston Villa -2
3.8%
@ 14.00-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brighton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.52
0.67
0.58
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.42
0.62
0.62
0.73
0.18
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.3%
@ 1.35+1.4%
Under 0.5
28.7%
@ 3.13-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
William Hil
3.30
Pinnacle
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.0%
@ 2.57-2.4%
Under 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.48+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Betano
2.70
1xBet
2.67
Marathonbet
2.67
SBO
2.63
Under
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
SBO
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 6.20-3.4%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.10+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.30
Under
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brighton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 1.86-2.8%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.86+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Unibet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Brighton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.2%
@ 5.25-5.4%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.12+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Superbet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Brighton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.4%
@ 14.00-4.4%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.9%
@ 2.15-2.4%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.64+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.12
Under
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 6.79-2.1%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.07+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Under
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 17.75-3.9%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brighton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.79
0.43
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.57
0.83
0.50
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
1.33
0.80
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.71
1.46
0.85
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.21+0.5%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 4.18-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.7%
@ 1.98-2.9%
Under 1.5
55.3%
@ 1.79+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
888Sport
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Unibet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.4%
@ 4.08-4.6%
Under 2.5
81.6%
@ 1.22+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.33
Superbet
4.25
William Hil
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brighton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.1%
@ 1.61-5.6%
Under
47.9%
@ 2.20+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Under
1xBet
2.24
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.15
Brighton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.1%
@ 3.84-4.1%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.22+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Brighton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 10.38-4.2%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.3%
@ 1.82-0.8%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.90+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.9%
@ 5.00-5.7%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.14+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 12.75-4.6%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Unibet
1.03
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.07
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.11
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.10
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
1.09
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.12
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.2%
1.14
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.6%
1.27
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.24
-
-
+8.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
80.2%
1.20
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
888Sport
1.20
1xBet
1.20
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.21
Superbet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+0.5%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
77.2%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.5%
1.24
Betano
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
1.36
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.1%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.3%
1.28
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.9%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.9%
1.35
Marathonbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.35
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.3%
1.40
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
+4.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brighton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maxim De Cuyper50%
Pascal Groß25%
Olivier Boscagli25%
Mats Wieffer25%
Charalampos Kostoulas25%
Malick Yalcouyé25%
Lewis Dunk0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Costinha0%
Yasin Ayari0%
Diego Gómez0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Luka Vušković0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Dunk33%
Costinha33%
Yasin Ayari33%
Pascal Groß25%
Olivier Boscagli25%
Luka Vušković25%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Maxim De Cuyper0%
Diego Gómez0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Charalampos Kostoulas0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maxim De Cuyper25%
Diego Gómez25%
Charalampos Kostoulas25%
Lewis Dunk0%
Pascal Groß0%
Olivier Boscagli0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Costinha0%
Yasin Ayari0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Luka Vušković0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Diego Gómez50%
Yasin Ayari33%
Maxim De Cuyper25%
Charalampos Kostoulas25%
Lewis Dunk0%
Pascal Groß0%
Olivier Boscagli0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Costinha0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Luka Vušković0%
Malick Yalcouyé0%
Zadok Yohanna0%
Aston Villa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Ollie Watkins27%
Emiliano Buendía20%
Morgan Rogers20%
Tammy Abraham19%
John McGinn18%
Donyell Malen17%
Ross Barkley13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Evann Guessand10%
Matty Cash6%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Amadou Onana5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ezri Konsa4%
Boubacar Kamara4%
Jadon Sancho3%
Ian Maatsen2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Lucas Digne0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matty Cash24%
Marco Bizot21%
Boubacar Kamara19%
John McGinn18%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Morgan Rogers16%
Lamare Bogarde16%
Douglas Luiz15%
Lucas Digne14%
Andrés García12%
Amadou Onana11%
Evann Guessand10%
Ollie Watkins7%
Victor Lindelöf7%
Emiliano Martínez7%
Ian Maatsen7%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ross Barkley4%
Pau Torres3%
Ezri Konsa2%
Jadon Sancho0%
Donyell Malen0%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Alysson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morgan Rogers20%
Youri Tielemans17%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Lucas Digne16%
John McGinn16%
Boubacar Kamara15%
Ollie Watkins9%
Matty Cash8%
Jadon Sancho8%
Donyell Malen7%
Tammy Abraham6%
Leon Bailey5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Evann Guessand5%
Ross Barkley4%
Victor Lindelöf4%
Emiliano Martínez2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Amadou Onana0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Morgan Rogers24%
Ollie Watkins24%
Emiliano Buendía13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Donyell Malen10%
Evann Guessand10%
Youri Tielemans6%
Ross Barkley4%
Amadou Onana3%
Jadon Sancho3%
John McGinn2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Matty Cash2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Leon Bailey0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Lucas Digne0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Douglas Luiz0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Brighton's squad is €84m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€620m vs €536m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Brighton's attack is €30m less valuable than Aston Villa's (€190m vs €220m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Brighton's midfield is €20m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€180m vs €160m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Brighton's defence is €92m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€249m vs €156m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Tottenham