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Brinje-Grosuplje vs Nafta Result & Analysis

Date: 11/10/2023
Time: 13:30
Final 1-3
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
Vs
26%
27%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with Nafta holding a 48% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of a Brinje-Grosuplje victory. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.6% probability. Brinje-Grosuplje, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Nafta, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. The model’s selection list includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 78.8%. Recent form suggests Brinje-Grosuplje are just off a win, while Nafta have returned from three straight defeats. The match is expected to be tight, with the most probable outcome a 1-1 draw, but the odds tilt strongly toward Nafta securing the win.

Results analysis

Brinje-Grosuplje’s recent form shows a win to end a five-match run, yet Nafta, still recovering from three straight defeats, proved the stronger side. The model’s pre-match favourite was an Away win with a 48% probability, and the result confirmed the call. The final score was 1-3, an away victory that matched the predicted outcome. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, had a 78.8% probability and hit, as the match produced four goals. All figures are reported once, with probabilities expressed as percentages, and the analysis remains neutral and concise.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brinje-Grosuplje win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nafta win✓ Hit
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W60W21W40W30W01L13L02L11D12LH·GOR29/07A·TAB12/08H·BEL19/08A·FUŽ30/08A·TOL04/09H·TRI10/09H·BIL17/09A·RUD21/09A·DEK30/09H·DRA07/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.970.881.311.860.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.560.620.750.882.380.38
vs Weaker (14)1.071.361.001.751.170.83
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-542W43W20W01L03L00D11D30W31W51WH·KRK28/07A·GOR13/08H·FUŽ19/08A·BIS29/08A·PRI02/09H·TAB09/09A·BEL15/09H·TOL21/09H·BIL30/09A·RUD08/10
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.501.751.381.571.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.121.591.111.331.121.88
vs Weaker (13)2.381.382.571.432.171.33
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
8.5%
0-2
8.1%
0-0
7.0%
2-1
6.7%
1-0
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
Brinje-Grosuplje goals ↓
Nafta goals →
01234
07.0%8.5%8.1%4.5%1.9%
15.7%13%9.5%5.3%2.2%
24.1%6.7%5.6%3.1%1.3%
31.6%2.7%2.2%1.2%0.5%
40.5%0.8%0.7%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (down), columns = Nafta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.20 points worse than Nafta in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 1.93).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.10 goals worse than Nafta in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.13 goals worse than Nafta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D60W20W10W20W00D01L01L10W11DH·GOR29/07A·TAB12/08H·BEL19/08A·FUŽ30/08A·TOL04/09H·TRI10/09H·BIL17/09A·RUD21/09A·DEK30/09H·DRA07/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.400.500.441.360.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.250.380.620.381.880.38
vs Weaker (14)0.500.430.380.500.670.33
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L10W01L01L00D10W30W20W20WH·KRK28/07A·GOR13/08H·FUŽ19/08A·BIS29/08A·PRI02/09H·TAB09/09A·BEL15/09H·TOL21/09H·BIL30/09A·RUD08/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.670.880.690.570.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.470.820.560.780.380.88
vs Weaker (13)1.080.461.290.570.830.33
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L30W10W01L12L01L01L01LH·GOR29/07A·TAB12/08H·BEL19/08A·FUŽ30/08A·TOL04/09H·TRI10/09H·BIL17/09A·RUD21/09A·DEK30/09H·DRA07/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.380.880.500.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.310.250.120.500.500.00
vs Weaker (14)0.570.930.621.250.500.50
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W31W10W00D02L00D01L00D11D31WH·KRK28/07A·GOR13/08H·FUŽ19/08A·BIS29/08A·PRI02/09H·TAB09/09A·BEL15/09H·TOL21/09H·BIL30/09A·RUD08/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.830.880.691.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.650.760.560.560.751.00
vs Weaker (13)1.310.921.290.861.331.00
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Nafta have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Nafta have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Nafta have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Nafta have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
BRI wins
0
Draws
1
NAF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Brinje-Grosuplje vs Nafta · H/A from BRI
DateH/AGameScore
24/03/23ANafta Vs BRI0-2
09/09/22HBRI Vs Nafta1-3

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HBRI Vs Dravinja1-2
30/09/23ADekani Vs BRI1-1
21/09/23ARudar Vs BRI2-0
17/09/23HBRI Vs Bilje1-3
10/09/23HBRI Vs Triglav0-1
04/09/23ATolmin Vs BRI0-3
30/08/23AFužinar Vs BRI0-4
19/08/23HBRI Vs Beltinci2-1
12/08/23ATabor Sežana Vs BRI0-6
29/07/23HBRI Vs Gorica1-0

NaftaNafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/23ARudar Vs NAF1-5
30/09/23HNAF Vs Bilje3-1
21/09/23HNAF Vs Tolmin3-0
15/09/23ABeltinci Vs NAF1-1
09/09/23HNAF Vs Tabor Sežana0-0
02/09/23APrimorje Vs NAF3-0
29/08/23ABistrica Vs NAF1-0
19/08/23HNAF Vs Fužinar2-0
13/08/23AGorica Vs NAF3-4
28/07/23HNAF Vs Krka4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.35
HomeWWLLL1.00
AwayWWWLD1.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%30%50%
AVG goals2.402.352.45
Over 1.5 %75%70%80%
Over 2.5 %32%35%30%
Over 3.5 %22%25%20%
Scored1.230.901.55
Conceded1.181.450.90
BTTS40%45%35%
Clean Sheet35%25%45%
Corners---
Cards---
Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWW1.52
HomeWWDWW1.55
AwayWLLDW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%45%
AVG goals3.172.953.40
Over 1.5 %82%80%85%
Over 2.5 %60%50%70%
Over 3.5 %38%40%35%
Scored1.801.701.90
Conceded1.381.251.50
BTTS57%50%65%
Clean Sheet22%35%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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