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Brinje-Grosuplje vs Tolmin Result & Analysis

Date: 17/03/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
Vs
45%
29%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tolmin
Tolmin
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brinje-Grosuplje win✓ Hit
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tolmin win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L00D11D10W04L11D20W11D41W11DH·NAF11/10A·KRK15/10H·BIS20/10H·PRI24/10A·ILI29/10A·GOR05/11H·FUŽ11/11A·PRI19/11H·TAB02/03A·BEL10/03
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.001.331.071.600.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.750.651.500.702.000.60
vs Weaker (10)0.901.701.001.800.801.60
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TolminTolmin

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L10W32W31W32W00D00D22D12L02LH·KRK08/10A·BIS14/10H·ILI21/10H·TAB25/10A·GOR29/10A·FUŽ05/11H·PRI12/11A·TAB18/11H·BEL03/03A·TRI09/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.151.651.401.700.901.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.151.651.401.700.901.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0 ✓
10.4%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
4.8%
Brinje-Grosuplje goals ↓
Tolmin goals →
01234
09.2%7.2%4.5%1.6%0.4%
110%14%6.6%2.3%0.6%
28.6%9.1%4.8%1.7%0.5%
34.2%4.5%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.5%1.6%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (down), columns = Tolmin goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.60 points better than Tolmin in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 1.13).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.60 goals better than Tolmin in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.13).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.33 goals better than Tolmin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D10W10W02L10W10W11D20W00DH·NAF11/10A·KRK15/10H·BIS20/10H·PRI24/10A·ILI29/10A·GOR05/11H·FUŽ11/11A·PRI19/11H·TAB02/03A·BEL10/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.400.870.331.200.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.300.301.100.201.500.40
vs Weaker (10)0.500.600.400.600.600.60
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TolminTolmin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D22D21W01L00D00D10W10W02LH·KRK08/10A·BIS14/10H·ILI21/10H·TAB25/10A·GOR29/10A·FUŽ05/11H·PRI12/11A·TAB18/11H·BEL03/03A·TRI09/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.951.000.900.301.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.650.951.000.900.301.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L00D02L01L10W00D21W11DH·NAF11/10A·KRK15/10H·BIS20/10H·PRI24/10A·ILI29/10A·GOR05/11H·FUŽ11/11A·PRI19/11H·TAB02/03A·BEL10/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.600.470.730.400.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.450.350.400.500.500.20
vs Weaker (10)0.401.100.601.200.201.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TolminTolmin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W10W10W31W00D00D12L02L00DH·KRK08/10A·BIS14/10H·ILI21/10H·TAB25/10A·GOR29/10A·FUŽ05/11H·PRI12/11A·TAB18/11H·BEL03/03A·TRI09/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.400.800.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.500.700.400.800.600.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
BRI wins
0
Draws
0
TOL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Brinje-Grosuplje vs Tolmin · H/A from BRI
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/23ATolmin Vs BRI0-3

Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/24ABeltinci Vs BRI1-1
02/03/24HBRI Vs Tabor Sežana4-1
19/11/23APrimorje Vs BRI1-1
11/11/23HBRI Vs Fužinar2-0
05/11/23AGorica Vs BRI1-1
29/10/23AIlirija Vs BRI4-0
24/10/23HBRI Vs Primorje1-0
20/10/23HBRI Vs Bistrica1-1
15/10/23AKrka Vs BRI0-0
11/10/23HBRI Vs Nafta1-3

TolminTolmin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/24ATriglav Vs TOL2-0
03/03/24HTOL Vs Beltinci1-2
18/11/23ATabor Sežana Vs TOL2-2
12/11/23HTOL Vs Primorje0-0
05/11/23AFužinar Vs TOL0-0
29/10/23AGorica Vs TOL2-3
25/10/23HTOL Vs Tabor Sežana3-1
21/10/23HTOL Vs Ilirija3-2
14/10/23ABistrica Vs TOL0-1
08/10/23HTOL Vs Krka1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWD1.36
HomeLDWWW1.20
AwayDLDDD1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%36%40%
AVG goals2.402.442.36
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %32%36%28%
Over 3.5 %24%28%20%
Scored1.221.081.36
Conceded1.181.361.00
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet34%28%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Tolmin
Tolmin
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLL1.15
HomeLWWDL1.40
AwayWWDDL0.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%40%20%
AVG goals2.803.102.50
Over 1.5 %75%80%70%
Over 2.5 %65%80%50%
Over 3.5 %40%50%30%
Scored1.151.400.90
Conceded1.651.701.60
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet25%30%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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