Bristol City are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model’s pick for a win. The expected goal tally sits at three, yet the most probable total is two, with a 12.1% chance of a 1-1 draw. Bristol’s home form shows 1.57 goals for and 1.5 against against similarly ranked sides, while Portsmouth’s away record is 1.46 for and 1.54 against. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with the single most likely scoreline a 1-1 finish, the probability of which is 12.1%. Home win odds are 44 %, a draw 26 %, and an away win 30 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.8 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7 % with a 5 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.7 % with a 5 % edge), Under 6.5 (96.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.1 % with a 5 % edge), and Under 5.5 (91.5 %). Bristol’s recent draw against Birmingham and Portsmouth’s win over Lincoln hint at a tight, defensive contest.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Bristol City secured a 2-1 victory over Portsmouth, extending their recent winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was backed by a 45% probability and the model’s call was correct. The final score matched the most likely 2-1 outcome, and the total goals of three fell within the expected range. Every suggested selection performed as forecasted: Under 7.5 hit with 98.8% confidence, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.5%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.9%, and Under 5.5 hit at 91.4%. The model’s comprehensive set of picks delivered an accurate and consistent performance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bristol City win✓ Hit
45.4%
Avg Implied 42.9% · @ 2.19
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.27
Superbet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
BetVictor
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.31
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.51
Dafabet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.32
Portsmouth win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.26
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Betano
3.35
10Bet
3.35
Dafabet
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bristol City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.37
1.47
1.47
1.07
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.41
1.41
1.57
1.50
1.23
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portsmouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.60
1.14
1.29
1.38
1.88
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.80
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.33
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.36
1.08
1.17
1.46
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.5%
@ 1.34+11.3%
Under 1.5
18.5%
@ 3.15-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.42
Unibet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.1%
@ 2.06+12.2%
Under 2.5
41.9%
@ 1.75-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
SBO
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Unibet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Betfair
1.75
SBO
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.7%
@ 3.60+9.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
@ 1.26-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Betano
3.70
Pinnacle
3.69
Under
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.0%
@ 1.82+9.9%
No
39.0%
@ 1.90-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
No
Unibet
1.97
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 5.93+4.5%
2-1 ✓
9.3%@ 8.45+4.0%
1-2
7.2%@ 10.78+3.1%
1-0
7.2%@ 6.82+0.7%
2-0
7.1%@ 9.59+2.4%
2-2
6.1%@ 13.66+2.9%
0-0
6.0%@ 8.54+0.7%
0-1
5.3%@ 8.77+0.2%
Bristol City goals ↓
Portsmouth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
5.3%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
1
7.2%
12%
7.2%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.3%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.0%
5.3%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bristol City goals (down), columns = Portsmouth goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Bristol City is 0.15 points better than Portsmouth in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Bristol City is 0.22 goals better than Portsmouth in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Bristol City is 0.11 goals better than Portsmouth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Bristol City is 1.1 percentage points worse than Portsmouth in terms of average possession (49% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bristol City
For 4.3 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.3 · Against 12.5 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portsmouth
For 3.8 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.8
10.2
3.9
3.6
4.2
21.2
19.4
22.9
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
9.0
11.0
4.7
6.0
4.0
23.3
25.0
22.5
vs Similar (45)
9.7
9.5
9.9
3.8
3.5
4.1
21.0
19.3
22.7
vs Weaker (2)
16.5
17.0
16.0
5.0
3.0
7.0
22.5
16.0
29.0
% over line
54%
44%
64%
56%
48%
64%
46%
28%
64%
% under line
46%
56%
36%
44%
52%
36%
54%
72%
36%
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portsmouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.8
10.7
3.9
4.2
3.7
22.2
22.3
22.1
vs Stronger (8)
11.1
12.0
10.2
2.9
3.8
2.0
20.8
19.5
22.0
vs Similar (41)
10.6
10.5
10.8
4.1
4.2
4.0
22.4
22.7
22.1
vs Weaker (1)
12.0
12.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
68%
69%
67%
50%
58%
42%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
32%
31%
33%
50%
42%
58%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.7%
@ 1.62+4.4%
Under 9.5
38.3%
@ 2.17-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.4%
@ 1.78-1.6%
Under 3.5
49.6%
@ 1.94+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
44.9%
Under 21.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bristol City or Draw✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 71.4% · @ 1.31
Edge
-0.1%
45%
26%
29%
covers Bristol City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Bristol City or Portsmouth✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.30
Edge
+2.0%
45%
26%
29%
covers Bristol City + Portsmouth
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Draw or Portsmouth✗ Miss
54.6%
Avg Implied 56.5% · @ 1.66
Edge
-1.9%
45%
26%
29%
covers Draw + Portsmouth
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.66
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bristol City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.8%
@ 1.25+7.1%
Under
18.2%
@ 3.68-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.92
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Bristol City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.7%
@ 2.24+9.1%
Under
49.3%
@ 1.60-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Bristol City over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.3%
@ 5.08+6.0%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.14-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bristol City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 12.00+1.4%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.03-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Portsmouth over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.2%
@ 1.41+7.4%
Under
26.8%
@ 2.72-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.92
Unibet
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Portsmouth over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.0%
@ 3.02+7.1%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.35-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.12
Marathonbet
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Portsmouth over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 7.61+2.5%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.06-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Portsmouth over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 19.25-0.5%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.01+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bristol City, so a minus line means Bristol City give that many goals of a start and Portsmouth receive them. At -1, Bristol City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bristol City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bristol City)Actual: Portsmouth
Bristol City -2
10.6%
@ 9.37+1.0%
Draw -2
14.1%
@ 6.12-0.6%
Portsmouth +2
75.3%
@ 1.19-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.70
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Superbet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Away
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Bristol City)Actual: Draw
Bristol City -1
24.7%
@ 4.12+2.9%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 3.74-3.2%
Portsmouth +1
54.6%
@ 1.65+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Handicap +1 (Bristol City)Actual: Bristol City
Bristol City +1
71.3%
@ 1.31+2.7%
Draw +1
15.8%
@ 4.78-3.0%
Portsmouth -1
12.9%
@ 7.08+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Handicap +2 (Bristol City)Actual: Bristol City
Bristol City +2
87.1%
@ 1.06+1.5%
Draw +2
8.4%
@ 9.62-1.0%
Portsmouth -2
4.4%
@ 18.50-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bristol City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.78
0.64
0.71
0.69
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portsmouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
1.50
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.64
0.50
0.58
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.0%
@ 1.42+3.3%
Under 0.5
31.0%
@ 2.72-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Superbet
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.4%
@ 2.97+2.0%
Under 1.5
66.6%
@ 1.36-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.06
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 7.72-0.9%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.06+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bristol City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.9%
@ 1.99+4.0%
Under
49.1%
@ 1.75-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Bristol City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 5.93-1.7%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.09+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
Superbet
5.85
Betano
5.80
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Bristol City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 15.88-2.9%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.2%
@ 2.39-0.7%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.52+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 8.06-2.6%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.05+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.40
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 31.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bristol City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.87
0.80
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.63
0.93
0.79
0.54
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portsmouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.50
0.64
0.88
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.72
0.58
0.58
0.92
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.5%
@ 1.26+3.7%
Under 0.5
22.5%
@ 3.56-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Betano
3.60
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.5%
@ 2.23+2.5%
Under 1.5
55.5%
@ 1.61-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.0%
@ 4.92+0.1%
Under 2.5
81.0%
@ 1.15-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bristol City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.1%
@ 1.71+1.8%
Under
43.9%
@ 2.02-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Bristol City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 4.42-1.9%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.17+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Bristol City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 11.25-3.3%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.03+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.1%
@ 1.98+2.3%
Under
50.9%
@ 1.74-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 5.89-1.2%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.09+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 15.75-3.4%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.4%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.1%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.8%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.5%
1.34
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.2%
1.07
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
75.7%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
-6.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.1%
1.30
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.3%
1.35
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.2%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.3%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.31
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.3%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.3%
1.31
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bristol City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Twine50%
Dominic Ballard40%
J. Knight20%
L. Tolaj20%
Lisav Naif Eissat20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
S. Tickle0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Rio Cardines0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Randell33%
J. Knight20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
S. Twine0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
L. Tolaj0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Rio Cardines0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rio Cardines75%
J. Wallace20%
L. Tolaj20%
C. Pring0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
J. Knight0%
S. Twine0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Tolaj40%
S. Twine25%
S. Greenwood20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
J. Knight0%
George Tanner0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Rio Cardines0%
Portsmouth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Segecic40%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen25%
Ebou Adams20%
Terry Devlin20%
M. Milovanović20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ebou Adams20%
R. Shein20%
Terry Devlin20%
A. Segecic20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
M. Milovanović0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Kamara25%
Ebou Adams20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Segecic0%
M. Milovanović0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Segecic80%
A. Kamara25%
Colby Bishop20%
N. Schmid0%
Ebou Adams0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
M. Milovanović0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Bristol City's squad is €33m more valuable than Portsmouth's (€66m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Bristol City's attack is €15m more valuable than Portsmouth's (€29m vs €13m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Bristol City's midfield is €14m more valuable than Portsmouth's (€19m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Bristol City's defence is €4m more valuable than Portsmouth's (€18m vs €14m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Stoke
Burnley
Preston