This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.63
0.73
0.87
0.73
2.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
3.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
1.36
0.50
0.83
0.90
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
2.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.1%
@ 1.77-4.9%
Under 2.5
51.9%
@ 2.00+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
0-1 ✓
5.9%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Bristol Rvs goals ↓
Exeter goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
5.9%
3.3%
1.1%
0.2%
1
11%
13%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.6%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.6%
5.3%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bristol Rvs goals (down), columns = Exeter goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Bristol Rvs is 0.09 points worse than Exeter in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Bristol Rvs is 0.13 goals better than Exeter in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Bristol Rvs is 0.15 goals worse than Exeter in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bristol Rvs
For 4.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 3.4 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.9 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Exeter
For 6.5 · Against 5.9 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 8.8 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol Rvs
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.4
10.8
4.8
4.5
5.1
23.2
23.8
22.6
vs Stronger (19)
11.1
10.7
11.6
4.4
3.8
5.1
22.5
22.4
22.6
vs Similar (28)
10.2
10.2
10.1
5.0
4.9
5.0
24.0
24.7
23.3
vs Weaker (3)
11.7
-
11.7
5.3
-
5.3
19.7
-
19.7
% over line
70%
67%
73%
70%
54%
85%
66%
67%
65%
% under line
30%
33%
27%
30%
46%
15%
34%
33%
35%
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
12.0
10.0
4.1
4.4
3.8
20.7
20.7
20.8
vs Stronger (9)
10.2
10.8
9.8
3.1
3.0
3.2
20.7
22.2
19.4
vs Similar (37)
11.1
12.5
9.8
4.3
4.6
4.1
21.1
20.7
21.4
vs Weaker (4)
11.2
10.3
14.0
4.0
5.0
1.0
17.8
18.7
15.0
% over line
64%
76%
52%
56%
64%
48%
42%
44%
40%
% under line
36%
24%
48%
44%
36%
52%
58%
56%
60%
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Derby
11.3
Charlton
11.3
Exeter
11.0
Oxford
11.0
Peterboro
10.9
Fleetwood Town
10.9
Port Vale
10.9
Wycombe
10.8
Bristol Rvs
10.6
Portsmouth
10.5
Bolton
10.2
Reading
10.1
Shrewsbury
10.1
Barnsley
10.0
Cambridge
9.9
Leyton Orient
9.8
Carlisle
9.6
Burton
9.6
Cheltenham
9.4
Stevenage
9.4
Blackpool
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
Northampton
9.2
Wigan
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
4.9
Portsmouth
4.9
Bristol Rvs
4.8
Fleetwood Town
4.4
Port Vale
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.2
Oxford
4.2
Cheltenham
4.1
Stevenage
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Exeter
4.1
Bolton
4.0
Charlton
4.0
Reading
3.9
Carlisle
3.9
Cambridge
3.9
Blackpool
3.9
Northampton
3.9
Barnsley
3.9
Wycombe
3.8
Derby
3.7
Peterboro
3.7
Burton
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
24.7
Portsmouth
24.5
Wigan
23.5
Bristol Rvs
23.2
Oxford
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.6
Blackpool
22.3
Bolton
22.3
Cambridge
22.0
Cheltenham
21.9
Reading
21.9
Port Vale
21.7
Northampton
21.6
Lincoln
21.4
Barnsley
21.2
Shrewsbury
21.1
Charlton
21.0
Wycombe
20.9
Peterboro
20.8
Exeter
20.7
Carlisle
20.7
Leyton Orient
20.6
Derby
20.4
Burton
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
80.9%
Under 9.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
65.2%
Under 3.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
41.7%
Under 21.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bristol Rvs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.69
0.62
0.35
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.36
0.25
0.50
0.43
0.29
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.72
0.89
0.67
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.77
0.07
0.33
0.27
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.23
0.68
0.08
0.42
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bristol Rvs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
1.00
0.62
0.65
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.36
1.50
1.25
0.86
1.43
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.67
0.78
0.33
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.67
0.53
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.68
0.42
0.42
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
2.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 8.5 corners
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 10.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bristol Rvs · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bobby Kamwa67%
Ben Purrington33%
Fabrizio Cavegn33%
Richard Smallwood0%
Jack Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
Clinton Mola0%
Tommy Leigh0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kofi Balmer33%
Clinton Mola33%
Bobby Kamwa33%
Tommy Leigh33%
Riley Harbottle33%
Shaqai Forde33%
Richard Smallwood0%
Ben Purrington0%
Jack Aitchison0%
Brad Young0%
Fabrizio Cavegn0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kofi Balmer33%
Brad Young33%
Richard Smallwood0%
Ben Purrington0%
Jack Aitchison0%
Clinton Mola0%
Bobby Kamwa0%
Tommy Leigh0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
Fabrizio Cavegn0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bobby Kamwa33%
Tommy Leigh33%
Shaqai Forde33%
Fabrizio Cavegn33%
Richard Smallwood0%
Ben Purrington0%
Jack Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
Clinton Mola0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Exeter · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Fitzwater67%
Reece Cole0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
Edward James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charlie Cummins67%
Reece Cole33%
Gwion Edwards33%
Jack Fitzwater33%
Ethan Sutherland33%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Edward James0%
George Birch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Oluwabori33%
Reece Cole0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Jack Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
Edward James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reece Cole0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Jack Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
Edward James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Bristol Rvs's squad is €2m more valuable than Exeter's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Bristol Rvs's attack is €1m more valuable than Exeter's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Bristol Rvs and Exeter have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Bristol Rvs's defence is €1m more valuable than Exeter's (€3m vs €1m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Barnsley
Lincoln
Blackpool
Stevenage
Wigan
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Northampton
Reading
Charlton
Cambridge
Shrewsbury
Burton
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
Port Vale
Carlisle