This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.93
1.27
0.60
1.13
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.80
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.05
0.83
0.50
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
0.60
2.25
0.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.5%
@ 2.05+2.4%
Under 2.5
51.5%
@ 1.75-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8.8%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
7.5%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.4%
2-2
5.3%
Bristol Rvs goals ↓
Newport County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
9.2%
7.4%
3.5%
1.3%
1
7.5%
14%
8.8%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.2%
7.4%
5.3%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.0%
2.9%
2.1%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bristol Rvs goals (down), columns = Newport County goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Exeter
1.83
Forest Green
1.83
Bristol Rvs
1.74
Northampton
1.74
Port Vale
1.70
Swindon
1.67
Mansfield
1.67
Sutton
1.65
Tranmere
1.63
Salford
1.52
Newport County
1.50
Crawley Town
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.26
Bradford
1.26
Colchester
1.20
Walsall
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Carlisle
1.15
Rochdale
1.15
Harrogate
1.15
Stevenage
1.02
Barrow
0.96
Oldham
0.83
Scunthorpe
0.57
Bristol Rvs is 0.24 points better than Newport County in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Swindon
1.67
Forest Green
1.63
Bristol Rvs
1.54
Sutton
1.50
Newport County
1.46
Port Vale
1.46
Mansfield
1.46
Exeter
1.41
Harrogate
1.39
Leyton Orient
1.35
Salford
1.30
Northampton
1.30
Crawley Town
1.22
Tranmere
1.15
Bradford
1.15
Rochdale
1.11
Colchester
1.04
Walsall
1.02
Oldham
1.00
Stevenage
0.98
Hartlepool
0.96
Barrow
0.96
Carlisle
0.85
Scunthorpe
0.63
Bristol Rvs is 0.09 goals better than Newport County in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Northampton
0.83
Tranmere
0.87
Exeter
0.89
Forest Green
0.96
Port Vale
1.00
Salford
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.02
Bristol Rvs
1.07
Mansfield
1.13
Sutton
1.15
Swindon
1.17
Bradford
1.20
Barrow
1.24
Newport County
1.26
Rochdale
1.28
Walsall
1.30
Colchester
1.30
Carlisle
1.35
Hartlepool
1.39
Crawley Town
1.43
Stevenage
1.48
Oldham
1.63
Harrogate
1.63
Scunthorpe
1.96
Bristol Rvs is 0.20 goals better than Newport County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
60%
Forest Green
54%
Rochdale
54%
Leyton Orient
53%
Exeter
53%
Salford
51%
Newport County
51%
Mansfield
51%
Tranmere
51%
Hartlepool
51%
Harrogate
51%
Barrow
51%
Port Vale
50%
Walsall
49%
Bradford
49%
Oldham
48%
Northampton
48%
Crawley Town
47%
Colchester
47%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
46%
Scunthorpe
46%
Sutton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bristol Rvs
For 4.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 15.2 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
For 4.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol Rvs
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.1
3.8
3.6
3.9
26.2
26.4
26.0
vs Stronger (11)
10.2
10.6
9.8
3.3
3.2
3.3
27.5
26.8
28.0
vs Similar (36)
10.3
10.1
10.4
3.8
3.5
4.2
25.8
26.1
25.5
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
7.5
6.0
4.7
5.5
3.0
27.0
28.5
24.0
% over line
56%
48%
64%
50%
40%
60%
76%
76%
76%
% under line
44%
52%
36%
50%
60%
40%
24%
24%
24%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.2
8.4
3.2
3.1
3.2
23.5
22.4
24.5
vs Stronger (6)
9.2
10.4
3.0
4.3
3.8
7.0
23.8
22.8
29.0
vs Similar (37)
8.7
9.2
8.4
3.1
3.0
3.2
23.4
22.3
24.1
vs Weaker (7)
9.1
8.2
11.5
2.4
2.8
1.5
23.7
22.6
26.5
% over line
44%
52%
36%
38%
40%
36%
60%
56%
64%
% under line
56%
48%
64%
62%
60%
64%
40%
44%
36%
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sutton
11.2
Exeter
10.7
Oldham
10.6
Carlisle
10.2
Crawley Town
10.1
Bristol Rvs
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Forest Green
10.0
Colchester
10.0
Harrogate
9.9
Tranmere
9.9
Swindon
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.6
Bradford
9.6
Barrow
9.5
Scunthorpe
9.4
Mansfield
9.4
Northampton
9.3
Walsall
9.3
Port Vale
9.3
Stevenage
9.2
Newport County
8.8
Hartlepool
8.6
Salford
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sutton
4.0
Barrow
3.8
Bristol Rvs
3.8
Salford
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Leyton Orient
3.5
Mansfield
3.4
Oldham
3.3
Forest Green
3.3
Carlisle
3.3
Colchester
3.2
Swindon
3.2
Newport County
3.2
Crawley Town
3.1
Tranmere
3.1
Walsall
3.0
Stevenage
3.0
Port Vale
3.0
Hartlepool
3.0
Bradford
2.9
Scunthorpe
2.9
Exeter
2.7
Harrogate
2.7
Rochdale
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Northampton
26.5
Bristol Rvs
26.2
Mansfield
26.2
Carlisle
26.1
Crawley Town
26.1
Walsall
25.8
Tranmere
25.4
Stevenage
24.4
Swindon
24.4
Barrow
24.2
Salford
24.1
Harrogate
24.1
Scunthorpe
24.1
Forest Green
23.9
Leyton Orient
23.8
Port Vale
23.8
Bradford
23.6
Newport County
23.5
Sutton
23.0
Hartlepool
22.9
Colchester
22.9
Oldham
22.3
Exeter
21.6
Rochdale
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.6%
Under 9.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
38.7%
Under 21.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bristol Rvs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.53
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.68
0.46
0.54
0.22
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.65
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.40
1.50
0.25
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bristol Rvs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.68
0.46
0.69
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.60
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.40
0.50
0.17
0.43
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bristol Rvs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol Rvs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bristol Rvs · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom James67%
Bobby Kamwa50%
Ellis Harrison33%
B. Purrington25%
F. Cavegn25%
R. Smallwood0%
J. Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
C. Mola0%
Tommy Leigh0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom James67%
Tommy Leigh50%
R. Smallwood25%
Kofi Balmer25%
C. Mola25%
Bobby Kamwa25%
Riley Harbottle25%
Shaqai Forde25%
Ellis Harrison0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
Brad Young0%
F. Cavegn0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom James33%
Kofi Balmer25%
Brad Young25%
Tommy Leigh25%
R. Smallwood0%
Ellis Harrison0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
C. Mola0%
Bobby Kamwa0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Shaqai Forde0%
F. Cavegn0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bobby Kamwa50%
Tommy Leigh50%
F. Cavegn50%
Ellis Harrison33%
Shaqai Forde25%
Tom James0%
R. Smallwood0%
B. Purrington0%
J. Aitchison0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Brad Young0%
C. Mola0%
Riley Harbottle0%
Newport County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
H. Biggins50%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
C. Norman25%
Ciaran Brennan25%
Alfie Merritt25%
H. Biggins0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
H. Biggins25%
Alfie Merritt25%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Biggins25%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
SWI (22)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SCU (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Bristol Rvs's squad is €3m more valuable than Newport County's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Bristol Rvs's attack is €2m more valuable than Newport County's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Bristol Rvs and Newport County have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Bristol Rvs's defence is €1m more valuable than Newport County's (€3m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Forest Green
Exeter
Northampton
Port Vale
Swindon
Mansfield
Sutton
Tranmere
Salford
Crawley Town
Leyton Orient
Bradford
Colchester
Walsall
Hartlepool
Rochdale
Harrogate
Carlisle
Stevenage
Barrow
Oldham
Scunthorpe