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Briton Ferry vs Bala Town Result & Analysis

Date: 21/02/2026
Time: 12:30
Final 2-1
Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Vs
36%
28%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bala Town
Bala Town
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Briton Ferry win✓ Hit
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bala Town win✗ Miss
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D02L22D24L11D21W32W31W02L00DH·FLI29/11H·THE09/12A·CAR16/12A·GAP21/12A·PEN26/12H·BAR31/12A·HAV13/01H·LLA23/01H·HAV06/02A·FLI14/02
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.830.941.811.641.86
vs Stronger (2)1.501.000.002.003.000.00
vs Similar (27)1.261.961.001.801.582.17
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bala Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bala TownBala Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L12L22D02L01L12L40W34L11D03LA·BRI07/11A·PEN15/11H·CAR29/11H·HAV05/12H·CAE31/12A·THE06/01A·FLI13/01H·FLI23/01H·CAR07/02A·HAV13/02
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.530.941.440.861.64
vs Stronger (5)0.801.200.501.001.001.33
vs Similar (25)0.921.601.001.500.821.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1 ✓
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
0-0
8.0%
1-0
8.0%
0-1
7.8%
2-0
6.2%
0-2
6.1%
Briton Ferry goals ↓
Bala Town goals →
01234
08.0%7.8%6.1%2.7%0.9%
18.0%14%8.2%3.6%1.2%
26.2%8.3%5.5%2.5%0.8%
32.8%3.8%2.5%1.1%0.4%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Briton Ferry goals (down), columns = Bala Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Briton Ferry
1.41
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Bala Town
1.00
llanelli AFC
0.41
Briton Ferry is 0.41 points better than Bala Town in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Bala Town
1.03
llanelli AFC
0.53
Briton Ferry is 0.41 goals better than Bala Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.03).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Bala Town
1.41
Penybont
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.47
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
llanelli AFC
2.56
Briton Ferry is 0.06 goals worse than Bala Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.41).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D02L01L11D01L10W30W10W00D00DH·FLI29/11H·THE09/12A·CAR16/12A·GAP21/12A·PEN26/12H·BAR31/12A·HAV13/01H·LLA23/01H·HAV06/02A·FLI14/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.620.690.860.93
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.002.001.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.780.810.670.600.921.08
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bala Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bala TownBala Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D12L01L01L00D30W14L10W02LA·BRI07/11A·PEN15/11H·CAR29/11H·HAV05/12H·CAE31/12A·THE06/01A·FLI13/01H·FLI23/01H·CAR07/02A·HAV13/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.560.880.360.57
vs Stronger (5)0.400.400.500.500.330.33
vs Similar (25)0.480.800.570.930.360.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D21W13L10W11D02L21W02L00DH·FLI29/11H·THE09/12A·CAR16/12A·GAP21/12A·PEN26/12H·BAR31/12A·HAV13/01H·LLA23/01H·HAV06/02A·FLI14/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.030.311.120.790.93
vs Stronger (2)1.000.000.000.002.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.481.150.331.200.671.08
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bala Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bala TownBala Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L10W01L00D12L10W20W01L01LA·BRI07/11A·PEN15/11H·CAR29/11H·HAV05/12H·CAE31/12A·THE06/01A·FLI13/01H·FLI23/01H·CAR07/02A·HAV13/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.800.380.560.501.07
vs Stronger (5)0.400.800.000.500.671.00
vs Similar (25)0.440.800.430.570.451.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Briton Ferry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Briton Ferry over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Briton Ferry over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
LA (2)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Bala Town have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Bala Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Bala Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Briton Ferry and Bala Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
BF wins
2
Draws
1
BT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Briton Ferry vs Bala Town · H/A from BF
DateH/AGameScore
07/11/25HBF Vs Bala Town2-0
19/09/25ABala Town Vs BF2-2
28/09/24HBF Vs Bala Town2-2
16/08/24ABala Town Vs BF2-0

Briton FerryBriton Ferry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/26AFlint Town United Vs BF0-0
06/02/26HBF Vs Haverfordwest County AFC0-2
23/01/26HBF Vs llanelli AFC3-1
13/01/26AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs BF2-3
31/12/25HBF Vs Barry Town2-1
26/12/25APenybont Vs BF1-1
21/12/25AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs BF4-2
16/12/25ACardiff MET Vs BF2-2
09/12/25HBF Vs The New Saints0-2
29/11/25HBF Vs Flint Town United2-2

Bala TownBala Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/02/26AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs BT3-0
07/02/26HBT Vs Cardiff MET1-1
23/01/26HBT Vs Flint Town United3-4
13/01/26AFlint Town United Vs BT0-4
06/01/26AThe New Saints Vs BT2-1
31/12/25HBT Vs Caernarfon Town0-1
05/12/25HBT Vs Haverfordwest County AFC0-2
29/11/25HBT Vs Cardiff MET2-2
15/11/25APenybont Vs BT2-1
07/11/25ABriton Ferry Vs BT2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Briton Ferry
Briton Ferry
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.18
HomeDLWWL1.04
AwayDLDWD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%28%36%
AVG goals3.342.923.76
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %68%56%80%
Over 3.5 %44%32%56%
Scored1.521.241.80
Conceded1.821.681.96
BTTS62%52%72%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Bala Town
Bala Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL0.96
HomeDLLLD1.12
AwayLLLWL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%25%19%
AVG goals2.462.292.62
Over 1.5 %68%62%73%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored0.960.960.96
Conceded1.501.331.65
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet30%33%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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