Bumprom are slight favourites to win this match, with a recent-form note suggesting they're coming off a defeat. The overall shape of the match is expected to be a closely contested, low-scoring affair with 2.6 goals on average. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, but the model predicts a home win as the most likely result.
Bumprom have been scoring an average of 2.22 goals at home, conceding 1.11, while Dinamo Minsk II have been scoring 0.9 goals away and conceding 1.7 against similar opponents. The model suggests taking the Under 3.5 goals, with a 74.2% probability, and the Over 1.5 goals, with a 73.9% probability.
In terms of match probabilities, Bumprom have a 50% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 22% chance of losing. The model's selections include the Under 3.5 goals, with a 74.2% probability, and the Over 1.5 goals, with a 73.9% probability.
Results analysis
Bumprom’s 2-1 victory over Dinamo Minsk II confirmed the model’s prediction, with the home side extending a two-game winning run. The model had named a Home win with a 50 % probability, and that call proved correct. The final score matched the actual result, a Home win, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, but the 2-0 and 1-0 possibilities were close. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.5 %, Under 6.5 at 98.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.8 %, Under 5.5 at 95.3 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.9 %. The model’s selections performed exceptionally well.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bumprom win✓ Hit
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II win✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bumprom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.13
2.31
1.00
1.47
1.24
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.96
1.04
2.40
1.00
1.62
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.17
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.47
1.00
1.36
0.94
1.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
1.65
0.45
1.64
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.83
4.50
0.00
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.9%
2-0
9.6%
2-1 ✓
9.5%
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.1%
Bumprom goals ↓
Dinamo Minsk II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
6.4%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.5%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.1%
5.0%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bumprom goals (down), columns = Dinamo Minsk II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Bumprom is 0.50 points better than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Bumprom is 0.12 goals better than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Bumprom is 0.25 goals better than Dinamo Minsk II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bumprom or Draw✓ Hit
77.6%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Bumprom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bumprom or Dinamo Minsk II✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Bumprom + Dinamo Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dinamo Minsk II✗ Miss
50.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Draw + Dinamo Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bumprom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.8%
Under
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bumprom, so a minus line means Bumprom give that many goals of a start and Dinamo Minsk II receive them. At -1, Bumprom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bumprom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bumprom)Actual: Dinamo Minsk II
Bumprom -2
11.2%
Draw -2
15.7%
Dinamo Minsk II +2
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bumprom)Actual: Draw
Bumprom -1
26.8%
Draw -1
23.2%
Dinamo Minsk II +1
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bumprom)Actual: Bumprom
Bumprom +1
77.6%
Draw +1
14.0%
Dinamo Minsk II -1
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bumprom)Actual: Bumprom
Bumprom +2
91.6%
Draw +2
6.1%
Dinamo Minsk II -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bumprom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.54
0.46
0.82
0.65
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.43
0.70
0.30
0.92
0.54
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.50
0.64
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.65
0.27
0.73
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.7%
Under 0.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.7%
Under 1.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.6%
Under 2.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
58.7%
Under
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bumprom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.57
1.77
0.54
0.65
0.59
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.61
1.70
0.70
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.50
0.71
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.30
1.00
0.18
0.91
0.42
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
2.50
0.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.4%
Under 0.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.4%
Under 1.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.7%
Under 2.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.9%
Under
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Bumprom and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Bumprom and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Bumprom and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Bumprom and Dinamo Minsk II have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →