Bumprom are tipped to win in a 2.6-goal affair, with the model picking a home victory as the most likely outcome. The average of 2.6 goals suggests a moderate scoring match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.8 % chance. Bumprom have been strong at home, scoring 2.2 goals per game and conceding just 1.1 against teams of similar strength, while FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk have struggled away, netting only 0.91 goals and conceding 1.91 against comparable opposition. The home win probability stands at 59 %, the draw at 25 %, and the away win at 16 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.9 %, Under 6.5 at 98.1 %, Home +2 handicap at 94.7 %, Under 5.5 at 94.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.7 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 89.0 %, and Under 4.5 at 87.0 %. With Bumprom on a two-game winning run and Energetik-Bgu Minsk fresh from a loss, the home side’s advantage is clear.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bumprom win
59.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win
15.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bumprom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.23
2.46
0.92
1.41
1.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
2.00
1.12
2.60
0.90
1.57
1.29
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.36
1.07
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.45
0.91
0.82
0.91
2.09
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
1.00
3.50
0.50
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.2%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.9%
Bumprom goals ↓
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
4.9%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
1
12%
12%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
2
12%
9.7%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.0%
5.9%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.2%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bumprom goals (down), columns = FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.75
Niva
2.62
Lida
2.14
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Minsk II
1.62
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
BATE II
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Bumprom is 0.38 points better than FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.25
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.50
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.88
Volna
1.75
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
BATE II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Bumprom is 0.64 goals better than FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.38
Uni Minsk
0.57
FC Slutsk
1.00
Smorgon
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Niva
1.38
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.12
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Bumprom is 0.20 goals worse than FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bumprom or Draw
84.1%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
16%
covers Bumprom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bumprom or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
75.2%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
16%
covers Bumprom + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
40.7%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
16%
covers Draw + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bumprom over/under 0.5
Over
83.6%
Under
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 3.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bumprom, so a minus line means Bumprom give that many goals of a start and FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk receive them. At -1, Bumprom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bumprom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bumprom)
Bumprom -2
16.4%
Draw -2
18.7%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk +2
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bumprom)
Bumprom -1
35.1%
Draw -1
24.2%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk +1
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bumprom)
Bumprom +1
84.1%
Draw +1
10.7%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk -1
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bumprom)
Bumprom +2
94.8%
Draw +2
4.0%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bumprom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.62
0.38
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.42
0.80
0.20
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.43
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.23
0.55
0.18
0.27
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.3%
Under 0.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.3%
Under 1.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.7%
Under 2.5
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bumprom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.85
0.54
0.65
0.76
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.71
1.80
0.70
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.93
0.64
0.62
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.91
0.73
0.55
0.64
1.27
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.67
2.00
0.50
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.4%
Under 1.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.3%
Under 2.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.4%
Under
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
Dinamo Minsk II
BATE II
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II