The contest between Bumprom and Minsk II is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away victory. The predicted probabilities are 40% for Bumprom, 27% for a draw, and 33% for Minsk II. The average goal count sits at 3.0, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability. Bumprom, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Minsk II, on the road, averages 1.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Under 5.5 (91.9%), Home +2 handicap (84.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (83.3%), and Under 4.5 (82.1%). Both sides have recently come off defeats, with Bumprom losing 1-4 to FC Slutsk and Minsk II falling 1-2 to FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bumprom win
40.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minsk II win
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bumprom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.23
2.46
0.92
1.41
1.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
2.00
1.12
2.60
0.90
1.57
1.29
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minsk II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.57
0.86
1.81
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.00
1.00
0.91
1.82
1.09
vs Weaker (7)
2.71
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.9%
Under 2.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.5%
Under 3.5
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
6.9%
2-0
6.3%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-1
6.1%
Bumprom goals ↓
Minsk II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
6.1%
5.1%
2.4%
0.8%
1
6.9%
12%
7.9%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.3%
8.8%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.3%
4.6%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.3%
1.8%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bumprom goals (down), columns = Minsk II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Bumprom is 0.48 points worse than Minsk II in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Bumprom is 0.21 goals worse than Minsk II in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Bumprom is 0.62 goals worse than Minsk II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bumprom or Draw
66.9%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
33%
covers Bumprom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bumprom or Minsk II
73.4%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
33%
covers Bumprom + Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Minsk II
59.7%
Avg Implied -
40%
27%
33%
covers Draw + Minsk II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bumprom over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bumprom, so a minus line means Bumprom give that many goals of a start and Minsk II receive them. At -1, Bumprom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bumprom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bumprom)
Bumprom -2
8.3%
Draw -2
12.4%
Minsk II +2
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bumprom)
Bumprom -1
20.6%
Draw -1
19.7%
Minsk II +1
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bumprom)
Bumprom +1
66.9%
Draw +1
17.5%
Minsk II -1
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bumprom)
Bumprom +2
84.4%
Draw +2
9.9%
Minsk II -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bumprom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.62
0.38
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.42
0.80
0.20
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minsk II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.71
0.36
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.36
0.45
0.27
0.91
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.86
2.50
1.00
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bumprom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.85
0.54
0.65
0.76
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.71
1.80
0.70
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minsk II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.14
2.50
0.00
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minsk II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Bumprom and Minsk II have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Bumprom and Minsk II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Bumprom and Minsk II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Bumprom and Minsk II have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Osipovichy
Ostrovets FC
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II