Bumprom is expected to emerge victorious in this match against Molodechno-DYuSSh 4, with a 51% chance of a home win. The probability of a draw is 25%, while the away team has a 24% chance of winning. The model's selection is the home win.
The match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.1 goals. The most likely total goals is 2, with a probability of 23%. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.6%.
Bumprom has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.1 goals and conceding 1.1. In contrast, Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 struggles when playing away, scoring 0.88 goals and conceding 2.5 against similar opponents.
The model's selection for this match includes Over 1.5, with an 82.1% probability. Bumprom has a 51% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 24% chance of losing. Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 has a 24% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 51% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Bumprom's home win streak came to an end as they suffered a 0-1 defeat to Molodechno-DYuSSh 4. The actual result was an away win, a surprise given that the pre-match favourite, a home win, had a 51% probability. The model's call was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite did not come through. The model's selection, a home win, was not the outcome. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals to be scored HIT, but the actual total was 1. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals had an 82.1% probability of occurring, but it missed the actual score by a single goal.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bumprom win✗ Miss
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bumprom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.07
2.13
0.93
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.70
1.25
2.10
1.10
1.30
1.40
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.75
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
2.10
0.53
1.73
0.73
2.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.17
0.83
1.67
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (18)
0.56
2.06
0.33
1.78
0.78
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.1%
Under 2.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
1-0
7.6%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
Bumprom goals ↓
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
4.6%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
1
7.6%
12%
6.4%
2.6%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.7%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
4.9%
6.0%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.3%
2.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bumprom goals (down), columns = Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Niva
3.00
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.60
Minsk II
2.40
Osipovichy
2.00
Smorgon
1.80
Lida
1.80
Orsha
1.40
Bumprom
1.33
Volna
1.33
Ostrovets FC
1.20
Uni Minsk
1.20
Slonim
1.20
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.17
FC Slutsk
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.80
Gomel II
0.67
BATE II
0.60
Dinamo Minsk II
0.20
Bumprom is 1.27 points worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
2.80
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.40
Volna
2.33
Minsk II
2.20
Lida
2.00
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
Slonim
1.60
Bumprom
1.50
FC Slutsk
1.40
BATE II
1.40
Osipovichy
1.40
Ostrovets FC
1.20
Smorgon
1.20
Orsha
1.20
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.80
Uni Minsk
0.80
Dinamo Minsk II
0.60
Bumprom is 0.90 goals worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.40
Uni Minsk
0.60
Osipovichy
0.80
Minsk II
1.00
Smorgon
1.00
Niva
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.20
Bumprom
1.33
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.60
Orsha
1.60
Lida
1.80
Slonim
1.80
Ostrovets FC
2.00
Dinamo Minsk II
2.00
Gomel II
2.17
Volna
2.17
BATE II
2.20
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.67
Bumprom is 0.93 goals worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bumprom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.53
0.40
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.45
0.70
0.30
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
1.00
0.13
0.80
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.83
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.22
1.11
0.11
0.89
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (32)
€2m
FS (25)
€2m
NIV (24)
€2m
SMO (28)
€2m
BUM (23)
€2m
DMI (36)
€1m
M4 (27)
€1m
VOL (22)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (31)
€1m
LID (24)
€1m
SLO (30)
€1m
BI (28)
€1m
ORS (25)
€1m
OSI (24)
€1m
GI (26)
€1m
Bumprom and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Niva
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Lida
Smorgon
Volna
Orsha
Shakhter Soligorsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Ostrovets FC
FC Slutsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Gomel II
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II