This opponent (Las Palmas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.23
1.50
0.94
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.61
1.00
1.12
0.40
2.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.67
0.67
2.00
0.75
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
63.0%
Under 1.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.7%
@ 2.60-1.4%
Under 2.5
65.3%
@ 1.47+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.9%
Under 3.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.1%
No
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.4%
1-1
13.7%
0-0 ✓
13.6%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
8.0%
3-0
5.0%
1-2
4.6%
Burgos goals ↓
Las Palmas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
8.0%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
2
11%
8.3%
3.1%
0.8%
0.1%
3
5.0%
3.7%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burgos goals (down), columns = Las Palmas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Valladolid
1.93
Almeria
1.93
Eibar
1.90
Las Palmas
1.67
Tenerife
1.64
Girona
1.62
Oviedo
1.62
Ponferradina
1.50
FC Cartagena
1.43
Zaragoza
1.33
Burgos
1.31
Leganes
1.29
Huesca
1.29
Ibiza
1.24
Mirandes
1.24
Lugo
1.19
Sporting Gijon
1.10
Malaga
1.07
Amorebieta
1.02
Real Sociedad II
0.95
Fuenlabrada
0.79
Alcorcon
0.69
Burgos is 0.36 points worse than Las Palmas in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valladolid
1.69
Almeria
1.62
FC Cartagena
1.50
Eibar
1.45
Mirandes
1.38
Girona
1.36
Ponferradina
1.36
Las Palmas
1.36
Oviedo
1.36
Ibiza
1.26
Tenerife
1.26
Leganes
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Lugo
1.10
Amorebieta
1.05
Real Sociedad II
1.02
Sporting Gijon
1.02
Burgos
0.98
Fuenlabrada
0.93
Zaragoza
0.93
Alcorcon
0.88
Malaga
0.86
Burgos is 0.38 goals worse than Las Palmas in terms of goals scored per game (0.98 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Almeria
0.83
Tenerife
0.88
Oviedo
0.98
Burgos
0.98
Girona
1.00
Valladolid
1.02
Huesca
1.05
Eibar
1.07
Zaragoza
1.10
Las Palmas
1.12
Sporting Gijon
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Lugo
1.24
Ponferradina
1.31
Malaga
1.36
FC Cartagena
1.36
Ibiza
1.40
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Mirandes
1.48
Amorebieta
1.50
Fuenlabrada
1.55
Alcorcon
1.69
Burgos is 0.14 goals better than Las Palmas in terms of goals conceded per game (0.98 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burgos
For 3.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Las Palmas
For 3.7 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 15.1 · Total 30.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burgos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (5)
6.2
7.0
5.7
3.0
3.5
2.7
22.2
26.0
19.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
5.8
7.0
4.5
2.8
3.5
2.0
22.5
26.0
19.0
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
-
8.0
4.0
-
4.0
21.0
-
21.0
% over line
0%
0%
0%
40%
50%
33%
40%
100%
0%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
60%
50%
67%
60%
0%
100%
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
8.3
6.9
5.4
4.8
6.1
31.8
31.3
32.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
7.5
8.4
6.7
5.9
5.3
6.5
31.3
30.9
31.7
vs Weaker (21)
7.9
8.2
7.3
4.7
4.2
5.3
32.5
31.8
33.4
% over line
30%
42%
17%
78%
69%
88%
98%
96%
100%
% under line
70%
58%
83%
22%
31%
12%
2%
4%
0%
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ibiza
9.8
Eibar
9.3
Almeria
9.3
Zaragoza
9.0
Fuenlabrada
9.0
Lugo
8.9
Mirandes
8.8
Tenerife
8.8
Valladolid
8.6
Amorebieta
8.5
Ponferradina
8.5
FC Cartagena
8.4
Girona
8.3
Huesca
8.3
Sporting Gijon
8.1
Oviedo
8.0
Leganes
8.0
Real Sociedad II
8.0
Malaga
7.8
Alcorcon
7.8
Las Palmas
7.7
Burgos
6.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fuenlabrada
6.1
FC Cartagena
5.6
Oviedo
5.6
Almeria
5.6
Girona
5.5
Las Palmas
5.4
Tenerife
5.3
Malaga
5.1
Valladolid
5.0
Lugo
4.9
Ponferradina
4.8
Leganes
4.7
Zaragoza
4.6
Alcorcon
4.6
Mirandes
4.4
Real Sociedad II
4.3
Sporting Gijon
4.0
Huesca
3.7
Eibar
3.7
Burgos
3.0
Amorebieta
2.8
Ibiza
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fuenlabrada
32.0
FC Cartagena
31.9
Las Palmas
31.8
Tenerife
30.9
Malaga
29.9
Leganes
29.8
Girona
29.6
Almeria
29.1
Oviedo
28.7
Huesca
28.4
Ibiza
28.2
Alcorcon
28.2
Valladolid
27.7
Zaragoza
27.5
Mirandes
27.3
Lugo
27.3
Ponferradina
27.1
Sporting Gijon
25.5
Amorebieta
24.7
Eibar
24.3
Real Sociedad II
23.2
Burgos
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burgos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.20
1.50
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.75
0.31
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.22
0.67
0.25
0.38
0.20
0.90
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.33
1.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burgos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Las Palmas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Las Palmas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Las Palmas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burgos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Las Palmas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Las Palmas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.75
0.62
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.94
0.75
0.75
0.20
1.10
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burgos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Las Palmas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Las Palmas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Las Palmas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burgos · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Forés67%
Curro Sánchez33%
Javi Llabrés33%
David González33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio González33%
José Gragera33%
Grego Sierra33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Ander Cantero0%
Curro Sánchez0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Álex Forés0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
David González0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Víctor Mollejo33%
Curro Sánchez33%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Álex Forés0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
David González0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Forés33%
David González33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Curro Sánchez0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Las Palmas · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taisei Miyashiro67%
Jesé Rodríguez33%
Manuel Fuster33%
Jefté Betancor0%
Enzo Loiodice0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Kirian Rodríguez0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Giovanni Bonfanti0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enzo Loiodice33%
Kirian Rodríguez33%
Giovanni Bonfanti33%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Jefté Betancor0%
Taisei Miyashiro0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Manuel Fuster0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Taisei Miyashiro67%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Jefté Betancor0%
Enzo Loiodice0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Kirian Rodríguez0%
Manuel Fuster0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Giovanni Bonfanti0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Manuel Fuster33%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Jefté Betancor0%
Enzo Loiodice0%
Taisei Miyashiro0%
José Antonio Caro0%
Kirian Rodríguez0%
Sergio Ruiz0%
Alex Suárez0%
Giovanni Bonfanti0%
Juanma Herzog0%
Valentin Pezzolesi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (27)
€41m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
BUR (22)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ZAR (20)
€9m
MIR (21)
€6m
HUE (21)
€5m
Burgos's squad is €12m less valuable than Las Palmas's (€17m vs €30m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€26m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
VAL (11)
€10m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
TEN (13)
€5m
ZAR (8)
€4m
HUE (9)
€2m
MIR (6)
€2m
Burgos's attack is €6m less valuable than Las Palmas's (€8m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
EIB (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
ZAR (4)
€2m
HUE (4)
€1m
MIR (4)
€1m
Burgos and Las Palmas have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
BUR (9)
€6m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
MIR (11)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
ZAR (8)
€3m
HUE (8)
€2m
Burgos's defence is €7m less valuable than Las Palmas's (€6m vs €13m).
Spain: Segunda División 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →