Burgos are tipped to edge Real Sociedad II in a tight Segunda División clash, the model picking a home win. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 27 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8 % chance. Burgos, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, have been scoring 1.38 goals per game while conceding only 0.69. Real Sociedad II, on the road, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded against similar teams. The home win probability sits at 47 %, draw 29 %, and away win 24 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.7 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9 %, Under 6.5 at 98.9 % with a 1 % edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3 %, Under 5.5 at 96.5 % with a 2 % edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.0 % with a 3 % edge, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.7 % with a 5 % edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Burgos, fell short as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent form streaks of a single draw each. The model had called a home win with a 48% probability, but that pick was wrong. Every suggested selection was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Under 6.5 at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2%, Under 5.5 at 96.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.5%. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely outcome, confirming the low-scoring nature predicted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Burgos win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied 51.5% · @ 1.81
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.87
Dafabet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Draw✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.34
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.52
1xBet
3.48
Dafabet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
Real Sociedad II win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.54
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.80
1xBet
4.78
Bet365
4.75
Pinnacle
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Burgos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.80
1.38
0.69
0.79
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.14
0.76
1.47
0.60
0.79
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.30
1.00
1.40
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.86
1.25
1.75
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.13
0.91
1.27
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.2%
@ 1.36+1.3%
Under 1.5
29.8%
@ 3.01-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.10
Betano
3.10
Pinnacle
3.02
10Bet
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.8%
@ 2.14-1.2%
Under 2.5
57.2%
@ 1.68+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.18
SBO
2.16
Bet365
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
SBO
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.0%
@ 3.88-2.2%
Under 3.5
78.0%
@ 1.23+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.22
Betfair
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.9%
@ 1.95+0.5%
No
52.1%
@ 1.76-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Unibet
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
No
Betfair
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.00+6.4%
1-0
12.0%@ 5.53+4.1%
0-0
10.4%@ 7.97+4.9%
2-0
9.7%@ 7.35+3.7%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.61+3.3%
0-1
7.3%@ 10.09+3.0%
1-2
5.8%@ 13.39+2.6%
3-0
4.7%@ 13.19+1.4%
Burgos goals ↓
Real Sociedad II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.3%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.7%
9.1%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.7%
4.4%
2.1%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.6%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burgos goals (down), columns = Real Sociedad II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Burgos is 0.60 points better than Real Sociedad II in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Burgos is 0.10 goals worse than Real Sociedad II in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Burgos is 0.67 goals better than Real Sociedad II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Burgos is 2.0 percentage points better than Real Sociedad II in terms of average possession (46% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burgos
For 3.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 14.4 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Sociedad II
For 4.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 12.9 · Total 29.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burgos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.4
8.6
5.3
5.5
5.1
26.4
26.0
26.9
vs Stronger (1)
9.0
9.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
vs Similar (48)
8.5
8.4
8.6
5.4
5.5
5.3
26.6
26.3
26.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
31%
28%
35%
78%
84%
72%
82%
80%
83%
% under line
69%
72%
65%
22%
16%
28%
18%
20%
17%
This opponent (Real Sociedad II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.9
9.9
5.9
6.4
5.4
28.7
30.2
27.2
vs Stronger (12)
9.2
7.7
10.7
5.6
6.0
5.2
28.2
28.7
27.8
vs Similar (38)
9.5
9.3
9.6
6.0
6.5
5.5
28.8
30.7
27.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
44%
48%
78%
80%
76%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
54%
56%
52%
22%
20%
24%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.8
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.1
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.5
Almeria
9.5
Leganes
9.5
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Eldense
9.3
Oviedo
9.3
Girona
9.2
Granada CF
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
Valladolid
9.1
FC Andorra
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.7
Burgos
8.4
Las Palmas
8.1
Celta de Vigo II
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
6.5
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Valladolid
5.7
Cordoba
5.6
Burgos
5.6
Almeria
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.4
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Leganes
5.0
Tenerife
4.8
Sabadell
4.7
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.5
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.4
Mallorca
4.4
Oviedo
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
32.0
Cordoba
29.9
Real Sociedad II
28.7
Valladolid
28.6
Castellón
28.3
AD Ceuta FC
27.6
Las Palmas
27.6
FC Andorra
27.6
Sabadell
27.6
Granada CF
27.4
Tenerife
27.1
Almeria
26.6
Burgos
26.5
Leganes
26.0
Cadiz
25.6
Eibar
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.6
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.0%
@ 2.02+1.2%
Under 9.5
53.0%
@ 1.71-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Under
Unibet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
78.8%
Under 3.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.7%
Under 21.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Burgos or Draw✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied 79.4% · @ 1.18
Edge
-2.4%
48%
29%
23%
covers Burgos + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Burgos or Real Sociedad II✗ Miss
70.9%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.28
Edge
-1.9%
48%
29%
23%
covers Burgos + Real Sociedad II
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Real Sociedad II✓ Hit
52.1%
Avg Implied 47.8% · @ 1.95
Edge
+4.3%
48%
29%
23%
covers Draw + Real Sociedad II
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.01
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Burgos over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.7%
@ 1.20-0.8%
Under
23.3%
@ 4.13+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.25
Marathonbet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Burgos over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.7%
@ 2.03-3.2%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.72+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Burgos over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.0%
@ 4.29-3.6%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.18+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.61
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Burgos over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 9.61-3.7%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
8.90
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Real Sociedad II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.9%
@ 1.61+3.0%
Under
39.1%
@ 2.21-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Real Sociedad II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.1%
@ 3.99+0.8%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.21-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.39
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Real Sociedad II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 11.53-1.3%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Real Sociedad II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 39.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
37.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Burgos, so a minus line means Burgos give that many goals of a start and Real Sociedad II receive them. At -1, Burgos must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Burgos win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Burgos)Actual: Real Sociedad II
Burgos -2
9.6%
@ 6.97-3.3%
Draw -2
14.9%
@ 5.12-2.6%
Real Sociedad II +2
75.6%
@ 1.28+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Superbet
6.70
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Burgos)Actual: Real Sociedad II
Burgos -1
24.4%
@ 3.26-3.1%
Draw -1
23.4%
@ 3.39-3.1%
Real Sociedad II +1
52.1%
@ 1.95+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.15
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Away
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Handicap +1 (Burgos)Actual: Burgos
Burgos +1
76.9%
@ 1.18+1.5%
Draw +1
14.7%
@ 5.61-1.1%
Real Sociedad II -1
8.4%
@ 10.18-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
9.60
Handicap +2 (Burgos)Actual: Burgos
Burgos +2
91.6%
@ 1.03+0.4%
Draw +2
6.2%
@ 15.00-0.1%
Real Sociedad II -2
2.2%
@ 37.50-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burgos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.69
0.44
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.48
0.73
0.40
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.80
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.57
0.45
0.82
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.0%
@ 1.45+1.6%
Under 0.5
34.0%
@ 2.61-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
BetVictor
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.2%
@ 3.07-0.1%
Under 1.5
69.8%
@ 1.33+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.05
Under
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.7%
@ 8.35-0.5%
Under 2.5
89.3%
@ 1.05+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
Superbet
8.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burgos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.2%
@ 1.87+2.6%
Under
47.8%
@ 1.84-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Burgos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 5.36-2.2%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.12+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
Betano
5.30
Superbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Burgos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 14.42-2.6%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Real Sociedad II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
33.8%
@ 2.82+1.0%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.38-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.02
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.84
Superbet
2.82
Betano
2.80
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
Real Sociedad II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 10.38-2.6%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Real Sociedad II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 50.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burgos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.30
0.69
0.25
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.28
0.73
0.20
0.36
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Sociedad II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Sociedad II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.14
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.57
0.45
0.45
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.28+2.9%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.42-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.24
Under
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.3%
@ 2.33+1.2%
Under 1.5
58.7%
@ 1.56-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.45
Superbet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.32
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 5.28-0.7%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.14+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.80
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.50
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burgos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.4%
@ 1.61+1.8%
Under
40.6%
@ 2.18-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Burgos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 3.90-3.4%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.21+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.84
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Burgos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 10.14-4.7%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Real Sociedad II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.1%
@ 2.32+5.3%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.54-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Real Sociedad II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 8.12-1.2%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.05+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.90
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Real Sociedad II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 21.75-2.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.5%
1.06
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Bet365
1.07
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.8%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.12
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.0%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
78.0%
1.23
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
76.9%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.9%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.7%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.9%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-0.8%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.9%
1.25
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.28
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.24
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.9%
1.28
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
-1.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.2%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
+1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burgos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Forés67%
Curro Sánchez33%
Javi Llabrés33%
David González33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio González33%
José Gragera33%
Grego Sierra33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Ander Cantero0%
Curro Sánchez0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Álex Forés0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
David González0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Víctor Mollejo33%
Curro Sánchez33%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Álex Forés0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
David González0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Forés33%
David González33%
Víctor Mollejo0%
Pablo Galdames0%
Sergio González0%
Ander Cantero0%
José Gragera0%
Grego Sierra0%
Curro Sánchez0%
Ignasi Vilarrasa0%
Alberto Dadie0%
Javi Llabrés0%
Marcelo Expósito0%
Real Sociedad II
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gorka Gorosabel67%
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena33%
Jon Balda0%
Unax Agote0%
Aitor Fraga0%
Kazunari Kita0%
Dani Díaz0%
Jon Garro0%
Lander Astiazaran0%
Tomy Carbonell0%
Ibai Aguirre0%
Jon Eceizabarrena0%
Javier Soroeta0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Balda33%
Unax Agote33%
Jon Garro33%
Lander Astiazaran33%
Aitor Fraga0%
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena0%
Kazunari Kita0%
Dani Díaz0%
Gorka Gorosabel0%
Tomy Carbonell0%
Ibai Aguirre0%
Jon Eceizabarrena0%
Javier Soroeta0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dani Díaz67%
Jon Eceizabarrena33%
Jon Balda0%
Unax Agote0%
Aitor Fraga0%
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena0%
Kazunari Kita0%
Jon Garro0%
Gorka Gorosabel0%
Lander Astiazaran0%
Tomy Carbonell0%
Ibai Aguirre0%
Javier Soroeta0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gorka Gorosabel33%
Jon Balda0%
Unax Agote0%
Aitor Fraga0%
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena0%
Kazunari Kita0%
Dani Díaz0%
Jon Garro0%
Lander Astiazaran0%
Tomy Carbonell0%
Ibai Aguirre0%
Jon Eceizabarrena0%
Javier Soroeta0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Burgos's squad is €6m less valuable than Real Sociedad II's (€17m vs €23m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Burgos's attack is €7m less valuable than Real Sociedad II's (€8m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Burgos and Real Sociedad II have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Burgos's defence is €1m more valuable than Real Sociedad II's (€6m vs €4m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Mallorca
Tenerife
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC