This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.33
1.33
1.47
1.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.62
1.43
1.58
1.42
1.67
1.44
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.2%
@ 2.01+5.4%
Under 2.5
47.8%
@ 1.77-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.0%
1-0 ✓
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
Burton goals ↓
Exeter goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.2%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
1
7.9%
13%
8.0%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.5%
8.6%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burton goals (down), columns = Exeter goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Plymouth
2.20
Ipswich
2.13
Sheffield Weds
2.09
Barnsley
1.87
Bolton
1.76
Peterboro
1.67
Derby
1.65
Portsmouth
1.52
Wycombe
1.50
Lincoln
1.35
Charlton
1.35
Shrewsbury
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Exeter
1.22
Burton
1.22
Cheltenham
1.17
Bristol Rvs
1.15
Port Vale
1.07
Oxford
1.02
Cambridge
1.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Accrington
0.96
Morecambe
0.96
Forest Green
0.59
Burton and Exeter are level in average points per game (both 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ipswich
2.20
Plymouth
1.78
Sheffield Weds
1.76
Barnsley
1.74
Peterboro
1.63
Charlton
1.52
Derby
1.46
Exeter
1.39
Bolton
1.35
Portsmouth
1.33
Wycombe
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.26
Burton
1.24
Fleetwood Town
1.15
Shrewsbury
1.13
Oxford
1.07
Port Vale
1.04
Lincoln
1.02
Morecambe
1.02
Cheltenham
0.98
Milton Keynes Dons
0.96
Cambridge
0.89
Accrington
0.87
Forest Green
0.67
Burton is 0.15 goals worse than Exeter in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ipswich
0.76
Bolton
0.78
Sheffield Weds
0.80
Derby
1.00
Lincoln
1.02
Barnsley
1.02
Plymouth
1.02
Portsmouth
1.09
Fleetwood Town
1.11
Wycombe
1.11
Peterboro
1.17
Oxford
1.22
Shrewsbury
1.33
Cheltenham
1.33
Charlton
1.43
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Cambridge
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Port Vale
1.54
Bristol Rvs
1.59
Accrington
1.67
Morecambe
1.70
Burton
1.72
Forest Green
1.93
Burton is 0.24 goals worse than Exeter in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ipswich
59%
Bolton
57%
Portsmouth
55%
Derby
55%
Plymouth
54%
Peterboro
54%
Charlton
54%
Oxford
53%
Sheffield Weds
53%
Milton Keynes Dons
53%
Port Vale
52%
Exeter
52%
Barnsley
49%
Fleetwood Town
49%
Accrington
47%
Forest Green
47%
Wycombe
46%
Cambridge
46%
Burton
45%
Cheltenham
43%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
42%
Morecambe
42%
Burton is 6.9 percentage points worse than Exeter in terms of average possession (45% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burton
For 6.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 9.6 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Exeter
For 7.7 · Against 6.1 · Total 13.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 8.7 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
12.1
11.3
2.8
2.7
2.8
20.9
20.5
21.3
vs Stronger (20)
11.8
12.5
11.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
21.9
22.5
21.4
vs Similar (25)
11.5
12.0
10.9
2.6
2.5
2.8
20.3
19.3
21.4
vs Weaker (5)
12.4
10.5
13.7
3.2
3.5
3.0
19.6
18.5
20.3
% over line
70%
72%
68%
26%
28%
24%
44%
36%
52%
% under line
30%
28%
32%
74%
72%
76%
56%
64%
48%
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
11.3
12.4
3.1
3.3
2.8
19.6
20.7
18.4
vs Stronger (6)
13.7
15.5
12.8
3.0
4.5
2.2
19.3
21.5
18.2
vs Similar (37)
11.3
10.7
11.9
3.0
3.2
2.9
20.1
21.4
18.8
vs Weaker (7)
13.0
11.8
14.7
3.4
3.5
3.3
16.9
17.2
16.3
% over line
74%
60%
88%
44%
48%
40%
32%
44%
20%
% under line
26%
40%
12%
56%
52%
60%
68%
56%
80%
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Exeter
11.8
Burton
11.7
Bristol Rvs
11.3
Wycombe
10.7
Portsmouth
10.6
Ipswich
10.6
Shrewsbury
10.4
Morecambe
10.4
Accrington
10.4
Forest Green
10.3
Derby
10.2
Charlton
10.2
Peterboro
10.1
Barnsley
10.1
Oxford
10.1
Port Vale
10.1
Plymouth
10.0
Lincoln
10.0
Fleetwood Town
9.9
Cambridge
9.9
Sheffield Weds
9.7
Bolton
9.7
Cheltenham
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Accrington
4.4
Oxford
4.3
Forest Green
4.1
Fleetwood Town
4.1
Derby
4.0
Portsmouth
3.8
Lincoln
3.8
Ipswich
3.7
Cambridge
3.6
Milton Keynes Dons
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Shrewsbury
3.6
Cheltenham
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Peterboro
3.4
Wycombe
3.3
Sheffield Weds
3.3
Port Vale
3.3
Morecambe
3.2
Exeter
3.1
Plymouth
3.0
Burton
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
24.6
Portsmouth
24.5
Oxford
23.8
Bristol Rvs
23.7
Forest Green
23.4
Fleetwood Town
23.3
Charlton
23.2
Peterboro
23.1
Lincoln
22.3
Milton Keynes Dons
22.2
Bolton
22.2
Barnsley
22.1
Wycombe
21.8
Port Vale
21.7
Sheffield Weds
21.3
Shrewsbury
21.2
Ipswich
21.2
Plymouth
21.0
Burton
20.9
Derby
20.8
Morecambe
20.7
Cheltenham
20.7
Cambridge
20.5
Exeter
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.0%
Under 9.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
40.4%
Under 21.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.82
0.57
0.57
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.50
1.17
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.47
0.60
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.57
0.58
0.67
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.27
0.53
0.93
1.00
1.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
1.18
0.71
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.20
0.17
0.67
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.75
1.00
1.50
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.87
0.73
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.86
1.00
0.75
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
G. Evans25%
Kgagelo Chauke25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
J. Armer50%
Sulyman Krubally50%
G. Evans25%
Kyran Lofthouse25%
Finn Delap25%
Will Collar0%
Corey Addai0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Zac Scutt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse50%
J. Armer25%
Sulyman Krubally25%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
T. Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
C. Webster0%
Finn Delap0%
Zac Scutt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Webster33%
Zac Scutt33%
Will Collar0%
G. Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
T. Sibbick0%
J. Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Exeter · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Fitzwater50%
Reece Cole25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charlie Cummins50%
Vincent Harper33%
Reece Cole25%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Fitzwater25%
Josh Gordon25%
Ethan Sutherland25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
E. James0%
George Birch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Oluwabori33%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Reece Cole0%
J. Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reece Cole25%
Josh Gordon25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
J. Fitzwater0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (31)
€280m
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
WYC (24)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
PET (23)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
Burton's squad is €2m more valuable than Exeter's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (11)
€130m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Burton and Exeter have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (7)
€66m
DER (6)
€14m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Burton and Exeter have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (13)
€85m
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
FG (2)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Burton's defence is €1m more valuable than Exeter's (€2m vs €1m).
England: League One 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Plymouth
Ipswich
Sheffield Weds
Barnsley
Bolton
Peterboro
Derby
Portsmouth
Wycombe
Charlton
Lincoln
Shrewsbury
Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
Bristol Rvs
Port Vale
Oxford
Cambridge
Milton Keynes Dons
Morecambe
Accrington
Forest Green