This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stevenage
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.90
1.33
0.93
1.33
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
1.50
0.50
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.29
0.83
1.25
0.92
1.33
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.9%
@ 2.06-2.8%
Under 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.73+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1
11.3%
0-0
10.4%
1-2 ✓
8.8%
0-2
8.7%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
4.7%
Burton goals ↓
Stevenage goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
8.7%
4.0%
1.4%
1
8.0%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.4%
2
4.7%
6.5%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.6%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Burton goals (down), columns = Stevenage goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Burton is 0.54 points worse than Stevenage in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Burton is 0.39 goals worse than Stevenage in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Burton is 0.46 goals worse than Stevenage in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Burton is 4.5 percentage points worse than Stevenage in terms of average possession (41% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Burton
For 4.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 8.3 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stevenage
For 5.7 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.9
9.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
20.0
20.5
19.7
vs Stronger (18)
10.8
11.4
10.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
20.8
20.9
20.6
vs Similar (29)
9.4
10.5
8.5
3.2
3.1
3.3
19.5
20.1
18.9
vs Weaker (3)
10.7
-
10.7
3.3
-
3.3
20.7
-
20.7
% over line
52%
58%
46%
40%
33%
46%
32%
38%
27%
% under line
48%
42%
54%
60%
67%
54%
68%
62%
73%
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stevenage
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.2
8.7
4.0
4.2
3.7
24.6
25.0
24.1
vs Stronger (4)
8.0
10.5
5.5
5.2
6.5
4.0
24.8
25.0
24.5
vs Similar (37)
9.9
10.2
9.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.9
24.9
24.9
vs Weaker (9)
8.3
9.3
7.8
3.2
4.0
2.8
23.0
25.7
21.7
% over line
50%
64%
36%
56%
60%
52%
76%
80%
72%
% under line
50%
36%
64%
44%
40%
48%
24%
20%
28%
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Oxford
11.1
Charlton
11.1
Portsmouth
11.0
Exeter
11.0
Derby
10.8
Bristol Rvs
10.8
Wycombe
10.8
Fleetwood Town
10.7
Port Vale
10.5
Peterboro
10.5
Reading
10.5
Bolton
10.2
Shrewsbury
10.1
Barnsley
10.1
Carlisle
10.0
Burton
10.0
Cambridge
9.8
Blackpool
9.5
Stevenage
9.4
Cheltenham
9.4
Leyton Orient
9.3
Wigan
9.2
Northampton
9.1
Lincoln
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fleetwood Town
4.6
Portsmouth
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.4
Bristol Rvs
4.4
Oxford
4.4
Wigan
4.4
Bolton
4.0
Leyton Orient
4.0
Port Vale
4.0
Cambridge
4.0
Stevenage
4.0
Reading
3.9
Lincoln
3.8
Barnsley
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Charlton
3.8
Peterboro
3.8
Northampton
3.7
Exeter
3.7
Derby
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Wycombe
3.6
Carlisle
3.6
Burton
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
24.6
Portsmouth
24.0
Oxford
23.4
Bristol Rvs
23.4
Wigan
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Bolton
22.7
Cambridge
22.2
Port Vale
22.2
Blackpool
22.0
Wycombe
21.7
Northampton
21.7
Barnsley
21.6
Charlton
21.6
Leyton Orient
21.6
Peterboro
21.5
Lincoln
21.4
Shrewsbury
21.0
Cheltenham
20.9
Reading
20.8
Derby
20.6
Carlisle
20.5
Exeter
20.5
Burton
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.4%
Under 9.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 3.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
41.9%
Under 21.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.64
0.50
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.60
0.80
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.18
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stevenage
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.29
0.58
0.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.40
1.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stevenage
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.54
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.42
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stevenage over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Burton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kgagelo Chauke33%
Finn Delap33%
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Jack Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
Sulyman Krubally67%
George Evans33%
Kyran Lofthouse33%
Jack Armer33%
Finn Delap33%
Corey Addai0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse33%
Jack Armer33%
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Jack Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Stevenage · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Magennis50%
Jordan Roberts25%
Daniel Kemp25%
Oliver Sanderson25%
Terence Vancooten0%
Carl Piergianni0%
Louis Thompson0%
Lewis Freestone0%
Phoenix Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
Terry Taylor0%
Daniel Phillips0%
Saxon Earley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carl Piergianni50%
Jordan Roberts25%
Lewis Freestone25%
Daniel Kemp25%
Terence Vancooten0%
Louis Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
Phoenix Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
Terry Taylor0%
Daniel Phillips0%
Saxon Earley0%
Oliver Sanderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phoenix Patterson50%
Jordan Roberts0%
Terence Vancooten0%
Carl Piergianni0%
Louis Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
Lewis Freestone0%
Daniel Kemp0%
Filip Marschall0%
Terry Taylor0%
Daniel Phillips0%
Saxon Earley0%
Oliver Sanderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Kemp50%
Phoenix Patterson25%
Jordan Roberts0%
Terence Vancooten0%
Carl Piergianni0%
Louis Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
Lewis Freestone0%
Filip Marschall0%
Terry Taylor0%
Daniel Phillips0%
Saxon Earley0%
Oliver Sanderson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Burton's squad is €2m less valuable than Stevenage's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Burton and Stevenage have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Burton and Stevenage have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Burton's defence is €1m less valuable than Stevenage's (€2m vs €3m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Barnsley
Lincoln
Blackpool
Wigan
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Northampton
Reading
Bristol Rvs
Charlton
Cambridge
Shrewsbury
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
Port Vale
Carlisle