Cadiz and Valladolid face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a Cadiz win. The probability split is 40% for home victory, 30% for a draw and 30% for an away win. The expected total is 2.4 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance.
Cadiz, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.57 conceded. Valladolid, on the road, averages 1.13 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Both sides have shown modest offensive output and defensive vulnerability.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5% with a 2% edge), Under 5.5 (96.6% with a 2% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (95.9% with a 3% edge).
Results analysis
The match ended 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - a home win - disappointed, as the model’s pick proved wrong. Cadiz, coming off a draw, had been on a shaky run, while Valladolid, also fresh from a draw, had struggled away. The model had given the home side a 40% chance of victory, a 30% draw probability, and a 30% away win probability, with an expected total of 2.4 goals. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.4%, Under 5.5 hit at 96.6%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.5%. The game delivered a low-scoring stalemate, confirming the model’s under-goals predictions while overturning its favourite.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cadiz win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.58
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.73
1xBet
2.67
Betano
2.67
Dafabet
2.65
10Bet
2.64
Draw✓ Hit
30.3%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 3.03
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.12
Superbet
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Betano
3.05
Valladolid win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 33.1% · @ 2.82
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.93
Betano
2.90
Dafabet
2.90
1xBet
2.88
Bet365
2.88
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cadiz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.73
1.00
1.57
1.19
1.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.10
1.73
1.00
1.57
1.19
1.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Valladolid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valladolid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.60
0.92
1.00
1.00
2.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.04
1.70
0.92
1.08
1.13
2.20
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cadiz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
@ 1.41+3.2%
Under 1.5
30.0%
@ 2.83-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.92
Marathonbet
2.92
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.4%
@ 2.28+1.2%
Under 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.60-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.37
SBO
2.36
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.35
10Bet
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.6%
@ 4.24-0.4%
Under 3.5
78.4%
@ 1.20+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Pinnacle
4.44
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
@ 1.90+0.7%
No
50.6%
@ 1.80-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Betfair
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Bet365
1.91
No
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.3%@ 5.38+6.2%
1-0
10.6%@ 6.52+3.9%
0-0
10.6%@ 7.19+4.5%
0-1
8.8%@ 6.94+2.5%
2-1
8.4%@ 9.18+3.6%
2-0
7.7%@ 10.81+3.6%
1-2
7.1%@ 9.73+2.6%
0-2
5.5%@ 12.03+1.9%
Cadiz goals ↓
Valladolid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.8%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.4%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.3%
3.6%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cadiz goals (down), columns = Valladolid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Cadiz is 0.07 points worse than Valladolid in terms of average points per game (1.02 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Cadiz is 0.07 goals worse than Valladolid in terms of goals scored per game (0.98 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Cadiz is 0.10 goals worse than Valladolid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Cadiz is 3.8 percentage points worse than Valladolid in terms of average possession (46% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cadiz
For 3.9 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 12.4 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valladolid
For 4.7 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.4 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cadiz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.2
8.9
4.7
5.4
4.0
25.5
26.1
25.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
9.5
10.2
8.9
4.9
5.4
4.3
25.6
26.1
25.0
vs Weaker (2)
10.0
-
10.0
0.5
-
0.5
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
48%
54%
42%
62%
75%
50%
81%
88%
75%
% under line
52%
46%
58%
38%
25%
50%
19%
12%
25%
This opponent (Valladolid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valladolid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
8.9
5.4
5.3
5.5
28.6
28.8
28.4
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
12.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
vs Similar (45)
9.1
9.3
8.9
5.4
5.4
5.4
28.7
28.9
28.6
vs Weaker (4)
8.0
7.0
9.0
6.0
4.5
7.5
27.8
29.5
26.0
% over line
45%
50%
40%
72%
71%
73%
86%
83%
88%
% under line
55%
50%
60%
28%
29%
27%
14%
17%
12%
This opponent (Cadiz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.8
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.2
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Almeria
9.5
Leganes
9.5
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Eldense
9.3
Oviedo
9.3
Girona
9.2
Granada CF
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
FC Andorra
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.7
Burgos
8.4
Las Palmas
8.1
Celta de Vigo II
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
6.5
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Cordoba
5.7
Burgos
5.6
Almeria
5.6
Valladolid
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Leganes
5.0
Tenerife
4.8
Sabadell
4.7
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.5
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.4
Mallorca
4.3
Oviedo
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
32.0
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.7
Valladolid
28.3
Castellón
28.3
FC Andorra
27.8
AD Ceuta FC
27.8
Las Palmas
27.6
Sabadell
27.6
Tenerife
27.1
Granada CF
27.0
Almeria
26.6
Burgos
26.5
Leganes
26.0
Eibar
25.7
Cadiz
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.6
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.3%
@ 2.04-2.0%
Under 9.5
56.7%
@ 1.70+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.64
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.9%
@ 1.26+8.1%
Under 3.5
21.1%
@ 3.05-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
Under
Superbet
3.05
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.1%
Under 21.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cadiz or Draw✓ Hit
69.8%
Avg Implied 66.5% · @ 1.40
Edge
+3.3%
40%
30%
30%
covers Cadiz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Cadiz or Valladolid✗ Miss
69.7%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
+0.0%
40%
30%
30%
covers Cadiz + Valladolid
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Draw or Valladolid✓ Hit
60.5%
Avg Implied 63.8% · @ 1.46
Edge
-3.3%
40%
30%
30%
covers Draw + Valladolid
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cadiz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.3%
@ 1.35+3.6%
Under
27.7%
@ 2.97-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Unibet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Cadiz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.7%
@ 2.72+2.5%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.42-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.98
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Cadiz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 6.66-0.0%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.08+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Cadiz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 16.75-1.6%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Valladolid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.5%
@ 1.39-0.4%
Under
33.5%
@ 2.80+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.99
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
10Bet
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
Valladolid over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.8%
@ 2.92-2.0%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.36+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.95
Under
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Valladolid over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 7.33-2.9%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.07+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.70
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Valladolid over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 18.08-2.8%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cadiz, so a minus line means Cadiz give that many goals of a start and Valladolid receive them. At -1, Cadiz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cadiz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cadiz)Actual: Valladolid
Cadiz -2
6.4%
@ 11.96-1.0%
Draw -2
11.9%
@ 6.88-1.0%
Valladolid +2
81.7%
@ 1.12+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Cadiz)Actual: Valladolid
Cadiz -1
18.3%
@ 5.40+1.8%
Draw -1
21.2%
@ 4.03-1.0%
Valladolid +1
60.5%
@ 1.46-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.20
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Cadiz)Actual: Cadiz
Cadiz +1
69.8%
@ 1.40+5.7%
Draw +1
17.8%
@ 4.24-3.3%
Valladolid -1
12.4%
@ 6.07-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Handicap +2 (Cadiz)Actual: Cadiz
Cadiz +2
87.6%
@ 1.09+3.6%
Draw +2
8.6%
@ 8.50-2.1%
Valladolid -2
3.7%
@ 17.50-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Away
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cadiz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.90
0.43
0.71
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.37
0.90
0.43
0.71
0.31
1.06
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Valladolid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valladolid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.38
0.38
0.59
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.70
0.42
0.42
0.67
0.93
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cadiz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.5%
@ 1.48+2.8%
Under 0.5
34.5%
@ 2.49-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.57
William Hil
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
28.3%
@ 3.29-0.1%
Under 1.5
71.7%
@ 1.30+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
Superbet
3.35
William Hil
3.25
Under
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.6%
@ 8.97-1.9%
Under 2.5
91.4%
@ 1.04+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
William Hil
9.50
BetVictor
9.50
Superbet
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cadiz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.7%
@ 2.23+4.1%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.59-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
Unibet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Cadiz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 7.62-1.5%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
7.40
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Cadiz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 20.17-2.6%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
10Bet
21.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Valladolid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
34.4%
@ 2.35-5.2%
Under
65.6%
@ 1.53+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Superbet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.33
1xBet
2.31
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Valladolid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 8.20-3.5%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.05+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Valladolid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 31.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cadiz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.57
0.86
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.83
0.57
0.86
0.88
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Valladolid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valladolid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.54
0.62
0.41
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.48
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.47
1.27
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cadiz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
71.1%
@ 1.30-0.6%
Under 0.5
28.9%
@ 3.31+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Superbet
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.1%
@ 2.42+0.6%
Under 1.5
60.9%
@ 1.52-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 5.65-1.2%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.11+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cadiz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.2%
@ 1.86+3.5%
Under
46.8%
@ 1.84-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.78
Cadiz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 5.47-0.3%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.11+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.65
Superbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Cadiz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 16.00-2.4%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Valladolid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.0%
@ 1.92-3.0%
Under
55.0%
@ 1.78+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.74
Valladolid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.81-3.9%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.10+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Superbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Valladolid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 16.75-3.2%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.1%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.11
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.11
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.9%
1.26
Superbet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.7%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.4%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.3%
1.35
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.7%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
71.1%
1.30
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
-0.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
70.2%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
+2.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cadiz · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iuri Tabatadze28%
Brian Ocampo17%
Lucas Pérez14%
Sergio Arribas12%
Pelayo Fernández10%
Alvaro Garcia-Pascual10%
Antonio Cordero10%
Joaquín González9%
Efe Ugiagbe9%
Dawda Camara9%
Roger Martí7%
Jose Antonio de la Rosa7%
Javier Ontiveros7%
Moussa Diakité6%
Jorge Moreno5%
Suso4%
Youssouf Diarra4%
Álex Fernández3%
Sergio Ortuño3%
Rominigue Kouamé0%
David Gil0%
Iza Carcelén0%
Iker Recio0%
Mario Climent0%
Alfred Caicedo0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Victor Wehbi Aznar0%
Jeronimo Domina0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Juan Díaz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rominigue Kouamé50%
Mario Climent43%
Iker Recio38%
Alfred Caicedo36%
David Gil25%
Jeronimo Domina25%
Jose Antonio de la Rosa24%
Brian Ocampo23%
Moussa Diakité22%
Jorge Moreno21%
Iza Carcelén20%
Joaquín González18%
Bojan Kovačević17%
Iuri Tabatadze17%
Sergio Ortuño16%
Suso15%
Lucas Pérez14%
Roger Martí14%
Youssouf Diarra14%
Dawda Camara12%
Pelayo Fernández10%
Alvaro Garcia-Pascual10%
Raúl Pereira10%
Antonio Cordero10%
Efe Ugiagbe9%
Juan Díaz9%
Javier Ontiveros7%
Álex Fernández3%
Sergio Arribas0%
Victor Wehbi Aznar0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergio Arribas12%
Alvaro Garcia-Pascual12%
Suso11%
Sergio Ortuño11%
Iza Carcelén10%
Mario Climent10%
Joaquín González9%
Jose Antonio de la Rosa7%
Javier Ontiveros7%
Brian Ocampo7%
Jorge Moreno5%
Youssouf Diarra4%
Álex Fernández3%
Iker Recio3%
Lucas Pérez0%
Rominigue Kouamé0%
David Gil0%
Roger Martí0%
Iuri Tabatadze0%
Dawda Camara0%
Alfred Caicedo0%
Pelayo Fernández0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Victor Wehbi Aznar0%
Moussa Diakité0%
Jeronimo Domina0%
Efe Ugiagbe0%
Antonio Cordero0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Juan Díaz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alvaro Garcia-Pascual20%
Dawda Camara12%
Antonio Cordero10%
Javier Ontiveros7%
Brian Ocampo7%
Iuri Tabatadze6%
Roger Martí4%
Youssouf Diarra4%
Jose Antonio de la Rosa3%
Moussa Diakité3%
Suso0%
Lucas Pérez0%
Rominigue Kouamé0%
David Gil0%
Álex Fernández0%
Iza Carcelén0%
Sergio Ortuño0%
Iker Recio0%
Jorge Moreno0%
Sergio Arribas0%
Joaquín González0%
Mario Climent0%
Alfred Caicedo0%
Pelayo Fernández0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Victor Wehbi Aznar0%
Jeronimo Domina0%
Efe Ugiagbe0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Juan Díaz0%
Valladolid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luis Chacón33%
Julien Ponceau0%
Iván Alejo0%
Juanmi Latasa0%
David Torres0%
Thiago Ojeda0%
Alvaro Aceves0%
Yeray Cabanzon0%
Victor Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thiago Ojeda67%
Julien Ponceau33%
Juanmi Latasa33%
David Torres33%
Yeray Cabanzon33%
Iván Alejo0%
Luis Chacón0%
Alvaro Aceves0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Julien Ponceau0%
Iván Alejo0%
Juanmi Latasa0%
Luis Chacón0%
David Torres0%
Thiago Ojeda0%
Alvaro Aceves0%
Yeray Cabanzon0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luis Chacón33%
Yeray Cabanzon33%
Julien Ponceau0%
Iván Alejo0%
Juanmi Latasa0%
David Torres0%
Thiago Ojeda0%
Alvaro Aceves0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Cadiz and Valladolid have a similar squad value (both €27m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Cadiz's attack is €2m more valuable than Valladolid's (€11m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Cadiz's midfield is €3m less valuable than Valladolid's (€3m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Cadiz's defence is €2m more valuable than Valladolid's (€12m vs €10m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Mallorca
Tenerife
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cordoba
Eldense
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC