This opponent (Perugia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Perugia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.73
1.07
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.00
0.88
0.88
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (19)
0.84
1.11
0.57
1.29
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
Under 1.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.3%
@ 2.11-8.4%
Under 2.5
63.7%
@ 1.70+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.0%
Under 3.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.5%
No
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
13.3%
0-0
13.0%
2-0
9.2%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.7%
Cagliari goals ↓
Perugia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.2%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.9%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.2%
8.2%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
3
3.8%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cagliari goals (down), columns = Perugia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Frosinone
2.11
Genoa
1.95
Cagliari
1.65
Bari
1.64
Sudtirol
1.56
Parma
1.55
Reggina
1.41
Palermo
1.29
Modena
1.26
Venezia
1.26
Ascoli
1.24
Pisa
1.24
Como
1.24
Cittadella
1.13
Ternana
1.13
Cosenza
1.10
Perugia
1.03
Brescia
1.02
Spal
1.00
Benevento
0.92
Cagliari is 0.62 points better than Perugia in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Frosinone
1.66
Bari
1.43
Genoa
1.39
Venezia
1.33
Cagliari
1.33
Pisa
1.26
Palermo
1.26
Reggina
1.26
Parma
1.25
Como
1.24
Modena
1.24
Spal
1.08
Perugia
1.05
Ascoli
1.05
Sudtirol
0.98
Ternana
0.97
Brescia
0.93
Cittadella
0.89
Benevento
0.87
Cosenza
0.80
Cagliari is 0.27 goals better than Perugia in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Frosinone
0.68
Genoa
0.74
Sudtirol
0.85
Cagliari
0.88
Bari
0.95
Parma
1.05
Pisa
1.11
Reggina
1.18
Cittadella
1.18
Ascoli
1.24
Como
1.26
Benevento
1.29
Palermo
1.29
Venezia
1.33
Spal
1.34
Cosenza
1.35
Perugia
1.37
Ternana
1.37
Modena
1.39
Brescia
1.48
Cagliari is 0.48 goals better than Perugia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cagliari
For 4.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 13.5 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Perugia
For 5.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.1 · Against 16.1 · Total 33.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cagliari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.0
8.5
3.2
3.1
3.3
28.5
29.4
27.7
vs Stronger (12)
8.2
9.4
6.6
3.8
3.1
4.6
27.2
28.1
25.8
vs Similar (28)
8.6
8.2
8.9
3.6
3.6
3.6
29.6
31.0
28.5
vs Weaker (10)
13.0
13.0
13.0
1.3
1.0
1.5
26.0
23.0
29.0
% over line
44%
47%
41%
42%
44%
40%
94%
94%
94%
% under line
56%
53%
59%
58%
56%
60%
6%
6%
6%
This opponent (Perugia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Perugia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.2
9.6
4.1
4.1
4.0
34.0
33.5
34.6
vs Stronger (19)
9.7
10.7
8.5
4.4
4.6
4.2
33.6
34.6
32.5
vs Similar (31)
10.0
9.8
10.2
3.9
3.8
3.9
34.3
32.7
35.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
59%
47%
62%
60%
64%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
47%
41%
53%
38%
40%
36%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (Cagliari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.5
Pisa
11.0
Benevento
11.0
Venezia
10.5
Spal
10.5
Bari
10.5
Como
10.5
Frosinone
10.5
Reggina
10.4
Parma
10.3
Ascoli
10.0
Ternana
9.9
Cittadella
9.5
Perugia
9.5
Palermo
9.4
Cagliari
9.0
Genoa
8.9
Cosenza
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.3
Perugia
5.9
Pisa
5.8
Frosinone
5.7
Ascoli
5.7
Reggina
5.5
Parma
5.5
Venezia
5.4
Como
5.3
Cosenza
5.2
Spal
5.2
Ternana
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Brescia
4.6
Benevento
4.6
Genoa
4.6
Cagliari
4.5
Bari
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Reggina
33.7
Cittadella
33.4
Perugia
33.0
Pisa
32.8
Ascoli
31.3
Palermo
31.3
Frosinone
31.2
Spal
30.8
Como
29.9
Parma
29.4
Ternana
29.1
Benevento
28.6
Bari
28.3
Genoa
27.9
Cagliari
27.8
Cosenza
27.5
Venezia
27.5
Brescia
26.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.3%
Under 9.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
79.3%
Under 3.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.8%
Under 21.5
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cagliari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.20
0.80
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Perugia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Perugia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.20
0.40
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.45
0.25
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.58
0.14
0.57
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cagliari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cagliari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cagliari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cagliari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.87
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.40
1.20
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.88
0.43
0.86
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Perugia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Perugia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.53
0.67
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.55
0.62
0.62
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.53
0.43
0.71
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Cagliari) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cagliari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cagliari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cagliari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Perugia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cagliari
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gianluca Lapadula51%
Leonardo Pavoletti23%
Marco Mancosu19%
Gastón Pereiro11%
Zito Luvumbo10%
Alessandro Deiola10%
Paulo Azzi10%
Gabriele Zappa9%
Nunzio Lella5%
Nicolas Viola5%
Marko Rog4%
Christos Kourfalidis4%
Giorgio Altare3%
Antoine Makoumbou2%
Nahitan Nández0%
Antonio Barreca0%
Vincenzo Millico0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Boris Radunović0%
Filippo Falco0%
Alberto Dossena0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Nik Prelec0%
Franco Carboni0%
Adam Obert0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vincenzo Millico33%
Alberto Dossena30%
Marko Rog26%
Franco Carboni25%
Nahitan Nández24%
Gabriele Zappa24%
Edoardo Goldaniga23%
Giorgio Altare20%
Paulo Azzi19%
Alessandro Deiola13%
Elio Capradossi12%
Gianluca Lapadula12%
Zito Luvumbo12%
Leonardo Pavoletti12%
Nicolas Viola11%
Antoine Makoumbou10%
Christos Kourfalidis9%
Marco Mancosu7%
Filippo Falco7%
Adam Obert6%
Nunzio Lella5%
Alessandro Di Pardo5%
Boris Radunović5%
Antonio Barreca4%
Gastón Pereiro0%
Nik Prelec0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vincenzo Millico20%
Nahitan Nández16%
Marco Mancosu15%
Christos Kourfalidis13%
Nik Prelec12%
Gastón Pereiro11%
Gianluca Lapadula10%
Franco Carboni8%
Alessandro Deiola6%
Elio Capradossi6%
Gabriele Zappa6%
Zito Luvumbo5%
Paulo Azzi5%
Marko Rog4%
Adam Obert3%
Antonio Barreca0%
Nunzio Lella0%
Leonardo Pavoletti0%
Nicolas Viola0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Boris Radunović0%
Filippo Falco0%
Giorgio Altare0%
Alberto Dossena0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Antoine Makoumbou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Lapadula29%
Leonardo Pavoletti27%
Marco Mancosu22%
Alessandro Deiola19%
Nicolas Viola11%
Alberto Dossena7%
Zito Luvumbo7%
Filippo Falco7%
Elio Capradossi6%
Nahitan Nández5%
Nunzio Lella5%
Christos Kourfalidis4%
Giorgio Altare3%
Gabriele Zappa0%
Gastón Pereiro0%
Marko Rog0%
Antonio Barreca0%
Vincenzo Millico0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Boris Radunović0%
Paulo Azzi0%
Alessandro Di Pardo0%
Nik Prelec0%
Franco Carboni0%
Antoine Makoumbou0%
Adam Obert0%
Perugia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tiago Casasola26%
Luca Strizzolo20%
Giuseppe Di Serio15%
Samuel Di Carmine14%
Francesco Lisi12%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Federico Melchiorri11%
Marco Olivieri8%
Christian Kouan6%
Gabriele Angella6%
Simone Santoro6%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Paolo Bartolomei0%
Ryder Matos0%
Marcos Curado0%
Cristian Dell'Orco0%
Leonardo Capezzi0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Aleandro Rosi0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Aljaž Struna0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Yeferson Paz0%
Edoardo Iannoni0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Damiano Cancellieri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Curado43%
Francesco Lisi35%
Aleandro Rosi33%
Simone Santoro29%
Yeferson Paz27%
Marco Olivieri24%
Cristian Dell'Orco24%
Tiago Casasola23%
Christian Kouan23%
Federico Melchiorri22%
Aljaž Struna21%
Paolo Bartolomei19%
Giuseppe Di Serio19%
Edoardo Iannoni18%
Damiano Cancellieri17%
Leonardo Capezzi15%
Miloš Vulić12%
Gabriele Angella12%
Filippo Sgarbi12%
Samuel Di Carmine7%
Ryder Matos7%
Luca Strizzolo7%
Gregorio Luperini3%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Francesco Lisi15%
Aleandro Rosi13%
Tiago Casasola11%
Emmanuel Ekong11%
Paolo Bartolomei9%
Giuseppe Di Serio7%
Ryder Matos7%
Gabriele Angella6%
Filippo Sgarbi6%
Federico Melchiorri6%
Cristian Dell'Orco5%
Samuel Di Carmine3%
Marcos Curado3%
Christian Kouan3%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Leonardo Capezzi0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Simone Santoro0%
Luca Strizzolo0%
Gregorio Luperini0%
Aljaž Struna0%
Marco Olivieri0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Yeferson Paz0%
Edoardo Iannoni0%
Damiano Cancellieri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Di Carmine17%
Marco Olivieri16%
Gregorio Luperini11%
Federico Melchiorri11%
Francesco Lisi8%
Yeferson Paz8%
Giuseppe Di Serio7%
Paolo Bartolomei6%
Gabriele Angella6%
Tiago Casasola6%
Christian Kouan3%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stipe Vulikić0%
Stefano Gori0%
Ryder Matos0%
Marcos Curado0%
Cristian Dell'Orco0%
Leonardo Capezzi0%
Andrea Beghetto0%
Aleandro Rosi0%
Filippo Sgarbi0%
Simone Santoro0%
Luca Strizzolo0%
Aljaž Struna0%
Jacopo Furlan0%
Edoardo Iannoni0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Damiano Cancellieri0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Frosinone
Genoa
Bari
Sudtirol
Parma
Reggina
Venezia
Palermo
Modena
Pisa
Como
Ascoli
Cosenza
Cittadella
Ternana
Brescia
Spal
Benevento