SC Braga’s recent unbeaten run and Caldas’ loss to the same opponent set the tone for a likely away victory, the model’s pick. The odds favour Braga with a 48% chance of winning, while a draw sits at 28% and Caldas’ win probability is 24%. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most probable total of two goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% probability, a tidy reflection of Braga’s strong away form against weaker sides, scoring 2.11 goals and conceding just 0.67 per game. Caldas’ home form shows they struggle to score and concede, as evidenced by their recent 0-3 defeat. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.5%), Under 6.5 goals (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Over 19.5 fouls (97.2%), Under 5.5 goals (95.6%), Over 21.5 fouls (93.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1%), and Home under 2.5 goals (91.8%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every suggested pick is listed with its chance.
Results analysis
The win for SC Braga extends their unbeaten run, while Caldas’ recent form shows a defeat to the same opponent. The model’s favourite, Away win, was correct, with a 48% probability. The final score of 0-3 confirmed the predicted outcome. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.5%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Under 5.5 at 95.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.1%, and Home under 2.5 goals at 91.8%. The most likely total of 2 goals, with a 27% chance, was eclipsed by a high-scoring 3-goal match, yet the model’s coverage of low-goal totals proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Caldas win✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SC Braga win✓ Hit
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Caldas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.29
2.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
2.67
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
86% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.77
2.07
0.87
1.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.62
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (19)
2.21
0.74
2.30
0.80
2.11
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Caldas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
9.2%
0-0
9.1%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
4.7%
Caldas goals ↓
SC Braga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
11%
9.2%
4.7%
1.8%
1
6.8%
13%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.1%
6.2%
4.7%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.4%
2.1%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caldas goals (down), columns = SC Braga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
3.00
Benfica
2.57
Rebordosa
2.40
Alverca
2.33
Amarante
2.25
GIL Vicente
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
Cinfães
2.25
Lusitânia
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Leixoes
2.00
Farense
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Anadia
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Varzim
2.00
O Elvas
2.00
Operário
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Santa Clara
2.00
Brito
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
Rio Ave
1.67
Estrela
1.50
FC Porto
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
Academica
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Alpendorada
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Amora
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
Arouca
1.50
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Atlético Malveira
1.02
Vila Meã
1.02
Portalegrense
1.02
Correlhã
1.02
Vitória de Sernache
1.02
Florgrade
1.02
Nazarenos
1.02
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.02
Valenciano
1.02
Castro Daire
1.02
Uniao Nogueirense
1.02
Espinho
1.02
Naval 1893
1.02
Rebordelo
1.02
Portimonense B
1.02
Ançã
1.02
Resende
1.02
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.02
Silves
1.02
Vidago
1.02
AD Fornos Algodres
1.02
Vila Caíz
1.02
Angrense
1.02
Charneca Caparica
1.02
Oriental Lisboa
1.02
Sourense
1.02
Celoricense
1.02
AD Portomosense
1.02
Alcochetense
1.02
Fayal
1.02
Gouveia
1.02
Samora Correir
1.02
Ribeira Brava
1.02
Aparecida GO
1.02
Mirandela
1.02
Estrela Calheta
1.02
SC Celoricense
1.02
Almodôvar
1.02
Mosteirense
1.02
Águias do Moradal
1.02
Urzelinense
1.02
Celeirós
1.02
Quarteirense
1.02
AR São Martinho
1.02
Carregal
1.02
Juventude Évora
1.02
Fazendense
1.02
Pontassolense
1.02
Academico Viseu
1.00
Estoril
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Nacional
0.00
Trofense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Tondela
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Monção
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Portel
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Caldas is 0.92 points worse than SC Braga in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.29
Amarante
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Arouca
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Alverca
2.67
Anadia
2.67
Sporting CP
2.57
Vilaverdense
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
Cinfães
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Farense
2.33
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
FC Porto
2.00
Guimaraes
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Leça
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Rio Ave
1.83
Lusitânia
1.75
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Estrela
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
O Elvas
1.40
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
Atlético Malveira
1.29
Vila Meã
1.29
Portalegrense
1.29
Correlhã
1.29
Vitória de Sernache
1.29
Florgrade
1.29
Nazarenos
1.29
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.29
Valenciano
1.29
Castro Daire
1.29
Uniao Nogueirense
1.29
Espinho
1.29
Naval 1893
1.29
Rebordelo
1.29
Portimonense B
1.29
Ançã
1.29
Resende
1.29
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.29
Silves
1.29
Vidago
1.29
AD Fornos Algodres
1.29
Vila Caíz
1.29
Angrense
1.29
Charneca Caparica
1.29
Oriental Lisboa
1.29
Sourense
1.29
Celoricense
1.29
AD Portomosense
1.29
Alcochetense
1.29
Fayal
1.29
Gouveia
1.29
Samora Correir
1.29
Ribeira Brava
1.29
Aparecida GO
1.29
Mirandela
1.29
Estrela Calheta
1.29
SC Celoricense
1.29
Almodôvar
1.29
Mosteirense
1.29
Águias do Moradal
1.29
Urzelinense
1.29
Celeirós
1.29
Quarteirense
1.29
AR São Martinho
1.29
Carregal
1.29
Juventude Évora
1.29
Fazendense
1.29
Pontassolense
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Tirsense
1.14
Academico Viseu
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Academica
1.00
Tondela
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Monção
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Operário
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Brito
0.75
Vila Real
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Amora
0.50
Trofense
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Estoril
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Portel
0.00
Peniche
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Caldas is 0.83 goals worse than SC Braga in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Estoril
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Operário
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Academica
0.50
FC Serpa
0.50
Brito
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Benfica
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
Santa Clara
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
Academico Viseu
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
FC Porto
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Guimaraes
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Feirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
Machico
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Louletano
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Alpendorada
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Portel
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Arouca
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Alverca
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Rio Ave
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Torreense
1.50
Atlético CP
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Anadia
1.67
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Atlético Malveira
1.82
Vila Meã
1.82
Portalegrense
1.82
Correlhã
1.82
Vitória de Sernache
1.82
Florgrade
1.82
Nazarenos
1.82
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
1.82
Valenciano
1.82
Castro Daire
1.82
Uniao Nogueirense
1.82
Espinho
1.82
Naval 1893
1.82
Rebordelo
1.82
Portimonense B
1.82
Ançã
1.82
Resende
1.82
CD Olivais e Moscavide
1.82
Silves
1.82
Vidago
1.82
AD Fornos Algodres
1.82
Vila Caíz
1.82
Angrense
1.82
Charneca Caparica
1.82
Oriental Lisboa
1.82
Sourense
1.82
Celoricense
1.82
AD Portomosense
1.82
Alcochetense
1.82
Fayal
1.82
Gouveia
1.82
Samora Correir
1.82
Ribeira Brava
1.82
Aparecida GO
1.82
Mirandela
1.82
Estrela Calheta
1.82
SC Celoricense
1.82
Almodôvar
1.82
Mosteirense
1.82
Águias do Moradal
1.82
Urzelinense
1.82
Celeirós
1.82
Quarteirense
1.82
AR São Martinho
1.82
Carregal
1.82
Juventude Évora
1.82
Fazendense
1.82
Pontassolense
1.82
Amarante
2.00
Farense
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Leça
2.00
Monção
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Amora
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Paredes
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Estrela
4.00
Vizela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Valpaços
5.00
Caldas is 0.08 goals better than SC Braga in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Caldas
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
SC Braga
For 5.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.6 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Caldas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.3
8.6
4.2
3.3
4.9
25.5
23.1
27.5
vs Stronger (6)
7.4
11.0
5.0
6.3
7.0
6.0
28.8
26.5
30.3
vs Similar (10)
8.9
8.8
9.0
5.0
2.2
7.8
26.0
22.8
29.2
vs Weaker (34)
9.2
9.2
9.2
3.5
3.2
3.8
24.7
22.8
26.5
% over line
43%
45%
41%
56%
50%
62%
69%
50%
86%
% under line
57%
55%
59%
44%
50%
38%
31%
50%
14%
This opponent (Caldas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
12.2
Portimonense
11.4
Farense
11.0
União de Leiria
10.9
Vizela
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Chaves
10.7
Academico Viseu
10.7
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Famalicao
10.4
Nacional
10.3
Torreense
10.3
Oliveirense
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.2
Rio Ave
10.2
Arouca
10.2
Guimaraes
9.9
Benfica
9.7
Tondela
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Casa Pia
9.3
Estrela
9.2
Feirense
9.2
Sporting CP
9.2
Lusitânia Lourosa
9.0
SC Braga
9.0
GIL Vicente
9.0
AVS
9.0
Estoril
8.9
Maritimo
8.8
Pacos Ferreira
8.7
FC Porto
8.7
Mafra
8.5
Leixoes
8.5
Santa Clara
8.3
Moreirense
8.3
Alverca
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Santa Clara
6.6
Pacos Ferreira
6.4
Felgueiras 1932
6.3
Vizela
6.1
Chaves
6.0
Torreense
5.9
Leixoes
5.9
FC Porto
5.8
Oliveirense
5.8
Farense
5.7
Casa Pia
5.7
Maritimo
5.7
Sporting CP
5.7
Famalicao
5.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.6
União de Leiria
5.6
Portimonense
5.5
Arouca
5.5
Guimaraes
5.5
SC Covilha
5.4
Estrela
5.4
Nacional
5.3
Penafiel
5.3
Feirense
5.3
Rio Ave
5.3
AVS
5.2
Academico Viseu
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Tondela
5.2
GIL Vicente
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Vilaverdense
4.8
Alverca
4.8
SC Braga
4.7
Estoril
4.6
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
Mafra
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
31.5
Estrela
31.2
Santa Clara
30.1
Moreirense
30.1
Farense
29.1
Vilaverdense
28.5
Estoril
28.5
GIL Vicente
28.3
Rio Ave
28.3
SC Covilha
28.2
Guimaraes
28.2
Lusitânia Lourosa
28.0
Arouca
27.8
Casa Pia
27.8
AVS
27.5
Nacional
27.1
FC Porto
26.9
Sporting CP
26.7
SC Braga
25.3
Benfica
25.3
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Tondela
20.3
Leixoes
19.8
Pacos Ferreira
18.8
Academico Viseu
17.9
Oliveirense
17.4
União de Leiria
17.3
Portimonense
17.0
Alverca
16.6
Maritimo
15.7
Feirense
15.4
Felgueiras 1932
14.9
Mafra
14.9
Vizela
14.4
Penafiel
14.3
Chaves
13.4
Torreense
12.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
70.5%
Under 9.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.6%
Under 3.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
93.2%
Under 21.5
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Caldas or Draw✗ Miss
52.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
28%
48%
covers Caldas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caldas or SC Braga✓ Hit
71.8%
Avg Implied -
24%
28%
48%
covers Caldas + SC Braga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or SC Braga✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
28%
48%
covers Draw + SC Braga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Caldas over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caldas over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caldas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caldas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Caldas, so a minus line means Caldas give that many goals of a start and SC Braga receive them. At -1, Caldas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Caldas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Caldas)Actual: SC Braga
Caldas -2
2.6%
Draw -2
6.6%
SC Braga +2
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Caldas)Actual: SC Braga
Caldas -1
9.1%
Draw -1
14.8%
SC Braga +1
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Caldas)Actual: SC Braga
Caldas +1
52.1%
Draw +1
22.9%
SC Braga -1
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Caldas)Actual: SC Braga
Caldas +2
75.0%
Draw +2
14.9%
SC Braga -2
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Caldas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
100% (+71pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.20
0.33
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
0.53
1.50
0.40
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Caldas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caldas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caldas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caldas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Caldas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Braga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.30
0.87
0.53
0.73
0.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.38
1.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.21
0.80
0.40
0.78
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Caldas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caldas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caldas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caldas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Arouca
Estoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
Nacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
Torreense