This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.40
1.19
0.88
0.57
2.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.78
1.56
0.89
0.89
0.67
2.22
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.17
1.57
0.86
0.40
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambridge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.0%
@ 1.92-5.2%
Under 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.86+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.3%
No
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0 ✓
12.0%
2-0
10.0%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.1%
Cambridge goals ↓
Reading goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
6.8%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.6%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.3%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.1%
4.7%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cambridge goals (down), columns = Reading goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Cambridge is 0.24 points worse than Reading in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Cambridge is 0.63 goals worse than Reading in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Cambridge is 0.20 goals better than Reading in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Cambridge is 8.5 percentage points worse than Reading in terms of average possession (44% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cambridge
For 5.6 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Reading
For 5.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cambridge
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.0
9.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
21.6
21.6
21.5
vs Stronger (19)
9.9
11.5
8.1
3.3
3.5
3.1
20.3
20.8
19.8
vs Similar (27)
9.2
8.9
9.4
4.6
4.6
4.5
22.6
22.8
22.4
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
9.5
12.0
2.5
2.0
3.0
20.5
18.0
23.0
% over line
54%
60%
48%
62%
60%
64%
50%
52%
48%
% under line
46%
40%
52%
38%
40%
36%
50%
48%
52%
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.9
3.8
4.1
3.5
21.0
22.0
19.9
vs Stronger (32)
9.4
8.7
10.1
3.6
3.9
3.4
21.6
22.7
20.4
vs Similar (18)
9.8
9.9
9.6
4.1
4.4
3.8
20.1
21.0
18.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
54%
54%
54%
62%
46%
36%
31%
42%
% under line
46%
46%
46%
46%
38%
54%
64%
69%
58%
This opponent (Cambridge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wycombe
11.4
Bristol Rvs
11.0
Exeter
10.9
Derby
10.9
Burton
10.7
Portsmouth
10.7
Charlton
10.7
Oxford
10.7
Fleetwood Town
10.6
Bolton
10.3
Peterboro
10.3
Shrewsbury
10.3
Barnsley
10.2
Port Vale
10.0
Blackpool
10.0
Carlisle
9.6
Cambridge
9.6
Reading
9.5
Lincoln
9.3
Northampton
9.2
Cheltenham
9.1
Wigan
9.0
Leyton Orient
8.8
Stevenage
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fleetwood Town
4.8
Oxford
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.4
Portsmouth
4.4
Bristol Rvs
4.2
Barnsley
4.0
Bolton
4.0
Leyton Orient
4.0
Northampton
4.0
Cambridge
3.9
Wigan
3.9
Derby
3.9
Port Vale
3.9
Lincoln
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Reading
3.8
Peterboro
3.8
Charlton
3.7
Cheltenham
3.6
Stevenage
3.6
Carlisle
3.6
Exeter
3.5
Wycombe
3.3
Burton
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Portsmouth
24.7
Oxford
24.5
Stevenage
24.2
Fleetwood Town
23.2
Bristol Rvs
22.9
Peterboro
22.7
Bolton
22.6
Northampton
22.4
Port Vale
22.3
Blackpool
22.2
Charlton
22.1
Barnsley
21.9
Wigan
21.8
Leyton Orient
21.6
Cambridge
21.6
Lincoln
21.4
Wycombe
21.2
Shrewsbury
21.1
Reading
21.0
Burton
20.5
Derby
20.4
Carlisle
20.0
Exeter
19.8
Cheltenham
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
35.9%
Under 9.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.1%
Under 3.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
37.9%
Under 21.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cambridge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.20
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.70
0.67
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.56
0.43
0.43
0.18
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.53
0.50
0.38
0.07
0.71
vs Stronger (18)
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.44
0.00
0.89
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.33
0.71
0.29
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambridge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cambridge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambridge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambridge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cambridge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.47
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.90
0.33
0.33
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.72
1.14
0.71
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reading
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.69
0.50
0.50
1.29
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
0.89
0.56
0.44
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.83
0.86
0.57
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambridge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cambridge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambridge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambridge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cambridge · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Knight75%
Isaac Heath25%
Sullay Kaikai20%
Z. Bradshaw20%
P. Mpanzu0%
Dominic Ball0%
Louis Appéré0%
S. Lavery0%
K. Watts0%
J. Eastwood0%
G. Yahyai0%
Liam Bennett0%
G. McConnell0%
Callum Perry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
G. McConnell33%
Dominic Ball20%
S. Lavery20%
K. Watts20%
J. Eastwood20%
Liam Bennett20%
Z. Bradshaw20%
P. Mpanzu0%
Sullay Kaikai0%
Louis Appéré0%
B. Knight0%
G. Yahyai0%
Isaac Heath0%
Callum Perry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Louis Appéré40%
G. McConnell33%
Sullay Kaikai20%
P. Mpanzu0%
Dominic Ball0%
S. Lavery0%
K. Watts0%
J. Eastwood0%
B. Knight0%
G. Yahyai0%
Liam Bennett0%
Isaac Heath0%
Z. Bradshaw0%
Callum Perry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Knight50%
Isaac Heath25%
Sullay Kaikai20%
P. Mpanzu0%
Dominic Ball0%
Louis Appéré0%
S. Lavery0%
K. Watts0%
J. Eastwood0%
G. Yahyai0%
Liam Bennett0%
G. McConnell0%
Z. Bradshaw0%
Callum Perry0%
Reading · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Brown50%
J. Marriott33%
George Earthy33%
R. Williams25%
P. Lane25%
Benn Ward25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
L. Wing0%
A. Rinomhota0%
P. O'Connor0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
D. Kyerewaa0%
C. Savage0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Rinomhota33%
P. O'Connor33%
Jeriel Dorsett33%
Joel Pereira25%
R. Williams25%
C. Savage25%
Benn Ward25%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
J. Marriott0%
L. Wing0%
J. Brown0%
D. Kyerewaa0%
P. Lane0%
George Earthy0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
L. Wing33%
Jeriel Dorsett33%
Kyreece Lisbie33%
R. Williams25%
D. Kyerewaa25%
P. Lane25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
J. Marriott0%
A. Rinomhota0%
J. Brown0%
P. O'Connor0%
C. Savage0%
George Earthy0%
Benn Ward0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Kyerewaa25%
P. Lane25%
Benn Ward25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
R. Williams0%
J. Marriott0%
L. Wing0%
A. Rinomhota0%
J. Brown0%
P. O'Connor0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
C. Savage0%
George Earthy0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Cambridge's squad is €5m less valuable than Reading's (€5m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Cambridge's attack is €1m less valuable than Reading's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Cambridge's midfield is €2m less valuable than Reading's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Cambridge's defence is €1m less valuable than Reading's (€2m vs €4m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Barnsley
Lincoln
Blackpool
Stevenage
Wigan
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Northampton
Bristol Rvs
Charlton
Shrewsbury
Burton
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
Port Vale
Carlisle