This opponent (Swindon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.17
2.06
1.31
1.57
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.79
1.18
2.06
1.31
1.42
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
-
-
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%
2-1 ✓
9.6%
1-1
8.9%
3-0
8.5%
1-0
8.2%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
5.0%
0-0
4.6%
Cardiff goals ↓
Swindon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.6%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
1
8.2%
8.9%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
2
11%
9.6%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.5%
7.6%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
4
5.0%
4.5%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cardiff goals (down), columns = Swindon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Coventry
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Watford
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Cardiff
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.76
Oldham
0.70
Grimsby
0.50
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Accrington
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Hull
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Cardiff is 1.50 points better than Swindon in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Stevenage
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Watford
2.67
Cardiff
2.50
Southampton
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Sheffield United
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Wrexham
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Reading
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Preston
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Rotherham
1.50
Shrewsbury
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Brentford
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
Walsall
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Coventry
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Hull
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Derby
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.99
Oldham
0.92
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Cardiff is 0.50 goals better than Swindon in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Fulham
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Coventry
0.67
Blackpool
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Watford
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Bristol City
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Preston
1.00
Luton
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Crystal Palace
1.25
Brentford
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Leicester
1.67
Brighton
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Salford
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Hull
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Cardiff
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
Barnet
2.54
Barnsley
2.67
Oldham
2.73
Cheltenham
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Gillingham
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Cardiff is 1.50 goals better than Swindon in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 4.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cardiff
For 5.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swindon
For 5.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.8 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cardiff
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.1
9.2
3.4
3.5
3.3
23.0
22.9
23.0
vs Stronger (8)
9.3
9.7
9.0
3.4
3.7
3.2
23.7
21.3
25.5
vs Similar (41)
9.7
10.2
9.2
3.4
3.5
3.4
22.9
23.1
22.7
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
-
9.0
4.0
-
4.0
19.0
-
19.0
% over line
48%
52%
43%
50%
54%
46%
65%
70%
61%
% under line
52%
48%
57%
50%
46%
54%
35%
30%
39%
This opponent (Swindon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.5
9.1
3.3
3.2
3.3
21.6
20.8
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
9.6
10.2
8.9
3.3
3.3
3.4
21.8
21.0
22.6
vs Weaker (4)
12.5
13.5
11.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
19.8
19.5
20.0
% over line
51%
54%
48%
44%
40%
48%
51%
38%
65%
% under line
49%
46%
52%
56%
60%
52%
49%
62%
35%
This opponent (Cardiff) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Coventry
11.6
Tottenham
11.3
Sheffield Weds
11.3
Barnsley
11.2
Bournemouth
11.1
Newcastle
11.0
Huddersfield
11.0
Oldham
11.0
Brentford
11.0
Portsmouth
10.9
Harrogate
10.8
QPR
10.8
Luton
10.7
Sheffield United
10.6
Doncaster
10.6
Hull
10.6
Everton
10.5
Millwall
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Nottingham Forest
10.4
Liverpool
10.4
Oxford
10.4
Reading
10.4
West Brom
10.3
Barnet
10.3
Stoke
10.3
Leeds
10.3
Norwich
10.2
Crawley Town
10.2
Ipswich
10.2
Derby
10.2
Aston Villa
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Southampton
10.1
Fulham
10.1
Crystal Palace
10.1
Bristol Rvs
10.0
Shrewsbury
10.0
Middlesbrough
10.0
Manchester City
10.0
Stevenage
10.0
Blackburn
9.9
Newport County
9.9
Bolton
9.9
West Ham
9.9
Cheltenham
9.9
Plymouth
9.9
Exeter
9.9
Brighton
9.8
Leicester
9.8
Watford
9.8
Rotherham
9.8
Manchester United
9.8
Chesterfield
9.8
Bristol City
9.8
Walsall
9.8
Blackpool
9.8
Crewe
9.8
Grimsby
9.7
Port Vale
9.7
Sunderland
9.7
Notts County
9.7
Swindon
9.7
Swansea
9.7
Arsenal
9.7
Barrow
9.6
Wolves
9.6
Chelsea
9.6
Fleetwood Town
9.6
Burton
9.6
Lincoln
9.5
Charlton
9.5
Mansfield
9.5
Cardiff
9.5
Wigan
9.4
Leyton Orient
9.4
Birmingham
9.4
Preston
9.3
Salford
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Burnley
9.2
Bradford
9.2
AFC Wimbledon
9.2
Cambridge
9.2
Wrexham
9.2
Wycombe
9.1
Northampton
9.1
Tranmere
9.1
Accrington
9.1
Milton Keynes Dons
8.5
Stockport
8.5
Gillingham
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bolton
5.1
Bournemouth
4.9
Accrington
4.8
Bradford
4.8
Chelsea
4.8
Nottingham Forest
4.6
Gillingham
4.6
Aston Villa
4.5
Watford
4.5
Sunderland
4.5
Colchester
4.5
Salford
4.5
Brighton
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Manchester United
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Wolves
4.3
Grimsby
4.3
Chesterfield
4.3
Barrow
4.3
Portsmouth
4.2
Tranmere
4.2
Cambridge
4.2
Luton
4.2
Stevenage
4.1
Crystal Palace
4.1
Crawley Town
4.1
Tottenham
4.1
Stockport
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Blackburn
4.0
Stoke
4.0
Preston
4.0
Port Vale
4.0
Exeter
4.0
Burnley
3.9
Lincoln
3.9
Liverpool
3.9
Oldham
3.9
Arsenal
3.9
Walsall
3.9
Brentford
3.9
Southampton
3.9
Charlton
3.9
Sheffield United
3.9
Bromley
3.9
Peterboro
3.9
AFC Wimbledon
3.9
QPR
3.9
Ipswich
3.9
Birmingham
3.8
Doncaster
3.8
Barnet
3.8
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Fulham
3.8
Shrewsbury
3.8
Burton
3.8
West Brom
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Notts County
3.8
Oxford
3.8
Manchester City
3.8
Wycombe
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Huddersfield
3.7
Sheffield Weds
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Wigan
3.7
Swansea
3.7
Barnsley
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Milton Keynes Dons
3.6
Wrexham
3.6
Bristol Rvs
3.6
Northampton
3.6
Newport County
3.6
Cheltenham
3.6
Cardiff
3.5
Hull
3.5
Bristol City
3.5
Leyton Orient
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Everton
3.5
Plymouth
3.4
Blackpool
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Reading
3.4
Derby
3.3
Harrogate
3.3
Rotherham
3.2
Millwall
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Oldham
31.7
Bolton
25.5
Stevenage
25.4
Cheltenham
25.2
Birmingham
25.0
Accrington
25.0
Salford
25.0
Stockport
24.9
Cambridge
24.8
Exeter
24.8
Colchester
24.6
Wycombe
24.6
Crewe
24.6
Luton
24.5
Grimsby
24.4
Bradford
24.4
Bournemouth
24.3
Gillingham
24.3
Portsmouth
24.2
Wolves
24.1
Lincoln
24.0
Millwall
24.0
Milton Keynes Dons
24.0
Doncaster
24.0
Wigan
24.0
Preston
23.9
Blackburn
23.7
Southampton
23.7
Rotherham
23.7
Tottenham
23.6
Peterboro
23.6
Shrewsbury
23.5
Mansfield
23.5
Swansea
23.5
Sunderland
23.4
Sheffield Weds
23.4
Charlton
23.3
Barnet
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.3
Aston Villa
23.1
Brighton
23.0
Watford
23.0
Burnley
23.0
Reading
23.0
QPR
23.0
Blackpool
22.9
Tranmere
22.9
Leeds
22.8
Plymouth
22.8
Newport County
22.7
Huddersfield
22.6
Cardiff
22.6
Ipswich
22.6
Northampton
22.6
Fleetwood Town
22.5
Barrow
22.5
Norwich
22.5
Crawley Town
22.5
Newcastle
22.4
Port Vale
22.3
Bristol Rvs
22.3
West Ham
22.2
Chesterfield
22.1
Hull
22.1
Chelsea
22.0
Sheffield United
22.0
Harrogate
21.9
West Brom
21.8
Leicester
21.8
Manchester United
21.7
Wrexham
21.7
Crystal Palace
21.7
Walsall
21.6
Notts County
21.6
Everton
21.6
Nottingham Forest
21.6
Oxford
21.5
Swindon
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.5
Bromley
21.5
Burton
21.5
Leyton Orient
21.3
Derby
21.3
Stoke
21.3
Coventry
21.3
Barnsley
21.2
Bristol City
21.0
Arsenal
21.0
Fulham
20.9
Liverpool
20.9
Brentford
18.9
Manchester City
17.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.7%
Under 9.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.7%
Under 3.5
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
59.8%
Under 21.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cardiff or Draw✓ Hit
88.4%
Avg Implied -
69%
19%
12%
covers Cardiff + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff or Swindon✓ Hit
81.1%
Avg Implied -
69%
19%
12%
covers Cardiff + Swindon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Swindon✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
69%
19%
12%
covers Draw + Swindon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cardiff over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.7%
Under
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cardiff, so a minus line means Cardiff give that many goals of a start and Swindon receive them. At -1, Cardiff must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cardiff win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cardiff)Actual: Swindon
Cardiff -2
26.9%
Draw -2
20.6%
Swindon +2
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cardiff)Actual: Draw
Cardiff -1
47.6%
Draw -1
21.9%
Swindon +1
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cardiff)Actual: Cardiff
Cardiff +1
88.4%
Draw +1
7.7%
Swindon -1
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cardiff)Actual: Cardiff
Cardiff +2
96.1%
Draw +2
2.9%
Swindon -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cardiff
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.23
0.23
0.65
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.67
0.17
0.25
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.88
0.62
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.61
0.88
0.62
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cardiff over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cardiff
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.92
0.69
0.53
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.80
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.57
1.19
0.69
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.11
0.57
1.19
0.69
1.00
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cardiff over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cardiff
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yousef Saleh36%
Omari Kellyman24%
Rubin Colwill23%
Callum Robinson18%
Isaak Davies18%
Joel Colwill16%
Perry Ng15%
Chris Willock15%
Alex Robertson14%
Cian Ashford12%
Calum Chambers10%
Ollie Tanner7%
David Turnbull7%
Dylan Lawlor6%
Ronan Kpakio6%
William Fish5%
Ryan Wintle2%
Joel Bagan2%
Gabriel Osho0%
Nathan Trott0%
Matthew Turner0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Tanatswa Nyakuhwa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Robertson25%
Ronan Kpakio19%
Joel Bagan18%
Dylan Lawlor18%
Calum Chambers17%
Joel Colwill16%
Gabriel Osho15%
Ryan Wintle14%
Perry Ng13%
Omari Kellyman11%
Ollie Tanner10%
William Fish10%
David Turnbull9%
Rubin Colwill9%
Yousef Saleh8%
Chris Willock7%
Isaak Davies6%
Callum Robinson5%
Nathan Trott4%
Matthew Turner0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Tanatswa Nyakuhwa0%
Cian Ashford0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ollie Tanner34%
Rubin Colwill23%
Chris Willock15%
Ryan Wintle14%
Perry Ng13%
Ronan Kpakio11%
Yousef Saleh10%
Joel Bagan10%
Isaak Davies9%
Alex Robertson8%
Cian Ashford7%
Callum Robinson7%
David Turnbull7%
Dylan Lawlor6%
Omari Kellyman5%
Joel Colwill5%
Calum Chambers3%
Gabriel Osho0%
Nathan Trott0%
William Fish0%
Matthew Turner0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Tanatswa Nyakuhwa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yousef Saleh38%
Rubin Colwill29%
Omari Kellyman21%
Tanatswa Nyakuhwa20%
Ollie Tanner17%
Callum Robinson9%
Cian Ashford7%
Alex Robertson6%
Ryan Wintle5%
Chris Willock4%
Calum Chambers3%
Isaak Davies3%
Ronan Kpakio3%
Perry Ng3%
William Fish2%
David Turnbull2%
Gabriel Osho0%
Nathan Trott0%
Joel Bagan0%
Matthew Turner0%
Calum Scanlon0%
Joel Colwill0%
Dylan Lawlor0%
Swindon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aaron Drinan46%
Ben Middlemas25%
Fletcher Holman23%
Ollie Palmer21%
Harry Smith20%
Ollie Clarke17%
James Scanlon17%
Billy Bodin14%
Princewill Ehibhatiomhan13%
Paul Glatzel9%
Billy Kirkman9%
Joe Snowdon9%
Ryan Tafazolli9%
Finley Munroe8%
Junior Hoilett7%
Michael Olakigbe6%
James Ball4%
Filozofe Mabete4%
Jamie Knight-Lebel3%
Will Wright3%
Joel McGregor3%
Darren Oldaker2%
Tom Nichols2%
Gavin Kilkenny2%
Connor Ripley0%
Daniel Butterworth0%
Jake Thomas Batty0%
Thomas Wilson-Brown0%
Adam Murphy0%
Aidan Borland0%
Jake Tabor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Harry Smith40%
Adam Murphy33%
Finley Munroe29%
Ben Middlemas25%
Tom Nichols22%
Daniel Butterworth20%
Billy Kirkman18%
Jake Tabor18%
Ollie Clarke17%
Joe Snowdon15%
Junior Hoilett14%
Filozofe Mabete14%
Will Wright14%
Joel McGregor14%
Jamie Knight-Lebel13%
Ryan Tafazolli13%
Thomas Wilson-Brown13%
Aaron Drinan12%
Gavin Kilkenny12%
Aidan Borland12%
Paul Glatzel9%
James Ball9%
Connor Ripley8%
Jake Thomas Batty6%
Darren Oldaker5%
Ollie Palmer5%
Billy Bodin4%
Michael Olakigbe0%
Princewill Ehibhatiomhan0%
Fletcher Holman0%
James Scanlon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Finley Munroe25%
Fletcher Holman18%
Joe Snowdon15%
Junior Hoilett14%
Darren Oldaker12%
Aaron Drinan12%
Michael Olakigbe12%
Jake Thomas Batty12%
Will Wright11%
Paul Glatzel9%
Billy Kirkman9%
Ollie Palmer5%
James Ball4%
Connor Ripley4%
Ollie Clarke3%
Joel McGregor3%
Gavin Kilkenny2%
Harry Smith0%
Daniel Butterworth0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Billy Bodin0%
Filozofe Mabete0%
Thomas Wilson-Brown0%
Adam Murphy0%
Ben Middlemas0%
Princewill Ehibhatiomhan0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Aidan Borland0%
Jake Tabor0%
James Scanlon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ben Middlemas25%
Aaron Drinan24%
Ollie Palmer24%
Ollie Clarke14%
Michael Olakigbe12%
Paul Glatzel9%
Fletcher Holman9%
Jake Tabor9%
Will Wright3%
James Ball0%
Harry Smith0%
Junior Hoilett0%
Connor Ripley0%
Daniel Butterworth0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Darren Oldaker0%
Tom Nichols0%
Billy Bodin0%
Gavin Kilkenny0%
Filozofe Mabete0%
Joe Snowdon0%
Finley Munroe0%
Jake Thomas Batty0%
Thomas Wilson-Brown0%
Adam Murphy0%
Princewill Ehibhatiomhan0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Billy Kirkman0%
Aidan Borland0%
Joel McGregor0%
James Scanlon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
Cardiff's squad is €25m more valuable than Swindon's (€29m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
Cardiff's attack is €14m more valuable than Swindon's (€15m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Cardiff's midfield is €3m more valuable than Swindon's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
Cardiff's defence is €9m more valuable than Swindon's (€10m vs €1m).
England: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
England: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Lincoln
Bolton
Stockport
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Port Vale
Rotherham
Northampton
Notts County
Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford
Cambridge
Grimsby
Chesterfield
Barnet
Oldham
Crewe
Colchester
Walsall
Bristol Rvs
Fleetwood Town
Accrington
Gillingham
Cheltenham
Shrewsbury
Newport County
Tranmere
Crawley Town
Harrogate
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