Carlisle vs Scunthorpe Result & Analysis

Date: 31/08/2026

Time: 14:00

Final 4-2

Carlisle

57%

22%

21%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Scunthorpe

England: National League

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Carlisle’s recent unbeaten run and a 1-1 draw at home suggest a solid defensive posture, while Scunthorpe’s 3-1 win away shows they can score but also concede. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.4 goals and the most likely total of 3 goals at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.9% chance. Carlisle’s home form shows 2.23 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Scunthorpe’s away form averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. The probabilities of the match result are 57% for a home win, 22% for a draw, and 21% for an away win, making a Carlisle victory the model’s pick. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Under 7.5 at 97.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.1% with a 2% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.9% with a 2% edge, Under 6.5 at 94.2% with a 1% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 92.8% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.1% with a 5% edge, Home +2 handicap at 91.3% with a 3% edge.

Results analysis

The model’s prediction proved accurate as Carlisle secured a 4-2 victory, extending their unbeaten run in the last five matches. The pre-match favourite was Home win, with a 57% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested selections performed largely as expected: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.8%, Under 7.5 hit at 97.7%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 94.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.5%, and Home +2 handicap hit at 91.3%. Only Home under 2.5 HT goals missed, at 92.9%. The most likely score of 2-0 or 2-1 did not materialise, but the overall outcome matched the model’s forecast.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Carlisle win✓ Hit

56.9%

Avg Implied 54.6% · @ 1.68

Edge

+2.3%

Best 5 market prices

Superbet

1.73

Pinnacle

1.73

Betano

1.72

Dafabet

1.72

SBO

1.68

Draw✗ Miss

22.3%

Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.81

Edge

-1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.94

Betfair

3.90

Bet365

3.90

Marathonbet

3.85

Betano

3.85

Scunthorpe win✗ Miss

20.8%

Avg Implied 21.3% · @ 4.29

Edge

-0.5%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

4.42

William Hil

4.40

BetVictor

4.40

Betano

4.40

Pinnacle

4.39

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Carlisle

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.1

Avg scored

1.5

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.80	1.23	2.14	1.07	1.50	1.38
vs Stronger (3)	0.67	2.33	1.00	1.00	0.50	3.00
vs Similar (27)	1.93	1.11	2.23	1.08	1.64	1.14
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	33% (+7pp vs league)

This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Scunthorpe

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.2

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.60	1.53	1.53	1.47	1.67	1.60
vs Stronger (4)	2.00	1.25	2.50	1.00	1.50	1.50
vs Similar (26)	1.54	1.58	1.38	1.54	1.69	1.62
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	20% (-6pp vs league)

This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

86.2%

@ 1.17+7.3%

Under 1.5

13.8%

@ 4.38-7.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.21

Pinnacle

1.20

10Bet

1.20

Bet365

1.18

Superbet

1.18

Under

Betfair

4.80

BetVictor

4.60

Bet365

4.50

Pinnacle

4.43

1xBet

4.40

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

66.0%

@ 1.61+8.4%

Under 2.5

34.0%

@ 2.20-8.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.66

Betano

1.65

10Bet

1.62

Bet365

1.62

Superbet

1.61

Under

Bet365

2.25

Pinnacle

2.23

Marathonbet

2.21

1xBet

2.21

Betano

2.20

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

44.2%

@ 2.50+7.3%

Under 3.5

55.8%

@ 1.46-7.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.60

10Bet

2.55

Betfair

2.55

Betano

2.55

Unibet

2.55

Under

Bet365

1.50

Betano

1.50

BetVictor

1.48

Superbet

1.48

Pinnacle

1.48

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

64.0%

@ 1.60+6.5%

36.0%

@ 2.17-6.5%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

William Hil

1.62

Betano

1.62

Bet365

1.62

Superbet

1.61

Unibet

1.60

Superbet

2.20

Bet365

2.20

William Hil

2.20

Betfair

2.20

BetVictor

2.20

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

9.9%@ 6.96+3.6%

2-1

9.6%@ 7.30+3.7%

2-0

7.7%@ 8.40+2.5%

3-1

6.9%@ 11.18+3.0%

1-0

6.3%@ 7.76+0.7%

2-2

6.0%@ 12.00+2.4%

1-2

5.6%@ 12.43+2.1%

3-0

5.5%@ 12.79+2.1%

Carlisle goals ↓

	Scunthorpe goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.2%	3.3%	2.6%	1.1%	0.3%
1	6.3%	9.9%	5.6%	2.4%	0.7%
2	7.7%	9.6%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%
3	5.5%	6.9%	4.3%	1.8%	0.6%
4	3.0%	3.7%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carlisle goals (down), columns = Scunthorpe goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Barrow

2.18

Harrogate

2.08

Carlisle

2.04

Boreham Wood

1.90

Scunthorpe

1.77

Forest Green

1.74

Southend

1.72

Halifax

1.52

Hartlepool

1.48

Fylde

1.38

Kidderminster

1.38

Woking

1.37

Tamworth

1.35

Boston Utd

1.28

Altrincham

1.24

Wealdstone

1.22

Solihull

1.22

Yeovil

1.11

Eastleigh

1.09

Gateshead

1.09

Sutton

1.02

Aldershot

1.00

Carlisle is 0.27 points better than Scunthorpe in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.77).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Barrow

2.30

Harrogate

2.20

Boreham Wood

2.00

Carlisle

1.87

Southend

1.77

Forest Green

1.74

Scunthorpe

1.69

Solihull

1.54

Halifax

1.50

Aldershot

1.50

Woking

1.50

Wealdstone

1.48

Fylde

1.45

Kidderminster

1.45

Boston Utd

1.37

Tamworth

1.37

Sutton

1.28

Eastleigh

1.24

Altrincham

1.20

Hartlepool

1.17

Gateshead

1.17

Yeovil

1.04

Carlisle is 0.18 goals better than Scunthorpe in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.69).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Barrow

0.92

Harrogate

0.96

Southend

1.02

Carlisle

1.11

Forest Green

1.11

Woking

1.17

Boreham Wood

1.24

Hartlepool

1.28

Scunthorpe

1.35

Altrincham

1.41

Halifax

1.43

Boston Utd

1.46

Fylde

1.46

Kidderminster

1.46

Yeovil

1.48

Tamworth

1.54

Solihull

1.57

Wealdstone

1.65

Sutton

1.72

Eastleigh

1.74

Aldershot

1.89

Gateshead

1.96

Carlisle is 0.25 goals better than Scunthorpe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.35).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %

Boreham Wood

58%

Wealdstone

57%

Sutton

54%

Aldershot

54%

Forest Green

53%

Southend

52%

Altrincham

52%

Gateshead

50%

Woking

50%

Scunthorpe

49%

Carlisle

49%

Solihull

48%

Halifax

48%

Hartlepool

47%

Yeovil

47%

Eastleigh

41%

Tamworth

38%

Carlisle is 0.1 percentage points worse than Scunthorpe in terms of average possession (49% vs 49%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Carlisle or Draw✓ Hit

79.2%

Avg Implied 78.6% · @ 1.17

Edge

+0.6%

57%

22%

21%

covers Carlisle + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.23

BetVictor

1.20

Bet365

1.20

Betfair

1.20

William Hil

1.20

Carlisle or Scunthorpe✓ Hit

77.7%

Avg Implied 76.7% · @ 1.20

Edge

+1.0%

57%

22%

21%

covers Carlisle + Scunthorpe

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.25

Betano

1.25

Superbet

1.23

Bet365

1.22

BetVictor

1.20

Draw or Scunthorpe✗ Miss

43.1%

Avg Implied 44.7% · @ 2.06

Edge

-1.6%

57%

22%

21%

covers Draw + Scunthorpe

Best 5 market prices

Betano

2.18

SBO

2.12

10Bet

2.10

Betfair

2.10

William Hil

2.05

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Carlisle over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

88.3%

@ 1.11+5.0%

Under

11.7%

@ 5.57-5.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.14

Bet365

1.12

Superbet

1.12

Betfair

1.11

10Bet

1.11

Under

Bet365

6.00

Betfair

6.00

1xBet

6.00

BetVictor

5.50

Superbet

5.40

Carlisle over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

63.2%

@ 1.62+6.2%

Under

36.8%

@ 2.15-6.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.68

Betano

1.65

Superbet

1.64

10Bet

1.62

Bet365

1.62

Under

1xBet

2.20

Betfair

2.20

Bet365

2.20

Marathonbet

2.17

Pinnacle

2.17

Carlisle over/under 2.5Actual: Over

Over

36.3%

@ 2.96+5.0%

Under

63.7%

@ 1.35-5.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

3.14

BetVictor

3.00

Betfair

3.00

Bet365

3.00

Superbet

2.95

Under

Betano

1.38

1xBet

1.38

Bet365

1.36

Superbet

1.35

Betfair

1.33

Carlisle over/under 3.5Actual: Over

Over

17.0%

@ 5.84+1.1%

Under

83.0%

@ 1.11-1.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

6.50

Superbet

6.00

Betfair

6.00

Betano

5.60

1xBet

5.10

Under

Betano

1.12

Bet365

1.11

1xBet

1.11

Betfair

1.10

Superbet

1.09

Scunthorpe over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

71.5%

@ 1.40+5.5%

Under

28.5%

@ 2.71-5.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.45

Betano

1.42

BetVictor

1.40

Pinnacle

1.40

Betfair

1.40

Under

Pinnacle

2.92

BetVictor

2.75

Betfair

2.75

Superbet

2.75

Bet365

2.75

Scunthorpe over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

35.7%

@ 2.96+4.4%

Under

64.3%

@ 1.34-4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

3.01

Bet365

3.00

Betfair

3.00

BetVictor

3.00

1xBet

2.98

Under

Betano

1.37

Superbet

1.37

Bet365

1.36

Pinnacle

1.35

1xBet

1.33

Scunthorpe over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

13.2%

@ 7.48+0.8%

Under

86.8%

@ 1.06-0.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

9.00

Marathonbet

8.00

Betfair

7.50

Superbet

7.00

Betano

6.80

Under

Betano

1.08

Superbet

1.07

Bet365

1.07

1xBet

1.06

Betfair

1.06

Scunthorpe over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

3.9%

@ 17.92-1.5%

Under

96.1%

@ 1.01+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

23.00

Superbet

19.00

Betano

11.75

Under

Betano

1.02

Bet365

1.01

Superbet

1.01

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Carlisle, so a minus line means Carlisle give that many goals of a start and Scunthorpe receive them. At -1, Carlisle must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Carlisle win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Carlisle)Actual: Draw

Carlisle -2

18.2%

@ 5.14+1.1%

Draw -2

17.4%

@ 4.75-1.1%

Scunthorpe +2

64.4%

@ 1.37+0.1%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

5.50

Betfair

5.50

Marathonbet

5.30

Superbet

5.20

Unibet

4.20

Draw

Marathonbet

5.05

Bet365

5.00

Betfair

5.00

Superbet

4.80

Unibet

3.90

Away

Bet365

1.40

Superbet

1.39

Betfair

1.36

Marathonbet

1.36

Unibet

1.32

Handicap -1 (Carlisle)Actual: Carlisle

Carlisle -1

35.6%

@ 2.69+2.8%

Draw -1

21.3%

@ 3.62-3.1%

Scunthorpe +1

43.1%

@ 2.06+0.2%

Best 5 market prices

Home

10Bet

2.80

Superbet

2.77

Betfair

2.75

Bet365

2.75

Marathonbet

2.70

Draw

Bet365

4.00

Betfair

3.75

Superbet

3.70

Marathonbet

3.65

10Bet

3.55

Away

Bet365

2.10

Betfair

2.10

10Bet

2.10

Superbet

2.05

Marathonbet

2.05

Handicap +1 (Carlisle)Actual: Carlisle

Carlisle +1

79.2%

@ 1.18+4.8%

Draw +1

12.1%

@ 5.71-3.3%

Scunthorpe -1

8.7%

@ 8.62-1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.22

Superbet

1.20

Betfair

1.17

Marathonbet

1.14

Draw

Bet365

6.50

Betfair

6.00

Superbet

5.90

Marathonbet

4.45

Away

Bet365

10.00

Betfair

10.00

Superbet

8.30

Marathonbet

6.20

Handicap +2 (Carlisle)Actual: Carlisle

Carlisle +2

91.3%

@ 1.05+2.7%

Draw +2

5.9%

@ 12.33-1.6%

Scunthorpe -2

2.8%

@ 24.00-1.1%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.06

Superbet

1.05

Betfair

1.03

Draw

Bet365

13.00

Betfair

13.00

Superbet

11.00

Away

Bet365

26.00

Betfair

26.00

Superbet

20.00

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Carlisle

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.97	0.67	1.43	0.57	0.56	0.75
vs Stronger (3)	0.33	2.00	1.00	1.00	0.00	2.50
vs Similar (27)	1.04	0.52	1.46	0.54	0.64	0.50
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	53% (+27pp vs league)

This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Scunthorpe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.9

Avg scored

0.3

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.57	0.87	0.53	0.87	0.60	0.87
vs Stronger (4)	1.25	0.50	1.00	0.50	1.50	0.50
vs Similar (26)	0.46	0.92	0.46	0.92	0.46	0.92
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	37% (+11pp vs league)

This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

74.1%

@ 1.28+1.7%

Under 0.5

25.9%

@ 3.35-1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.34

BetVictor

1.29

William Hil

1.29

Superbet

1.28

10Bet

1.28

Under

Betfair

3.60

Bet365

3.50

William Hil

3.40

BetVictor

3.40

Superbet

3.35

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

41.2%

@ 2.35+1.8%

Under 1.5

58.8%

@ 1.52-1.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.47

Pinnacle

2.46

Betfair

2.40

Bet365

2.38

Marathonbet

2.33

Under

William Hil

1.55

Superbet

1.55

Pinnacle

1.54

BetVictor

1.54

Bet365

1.53

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

16.4%

@ 5.46-0.6%

Under 2.5

83.6%

@ 1.12+0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

5.75

Marathonbet

5.50

Betfair

5.50

Bet365

5.50

1xBet

5.50

Under

William Hil

1.14

Betano

1.14

Bet365

1.14

Superbet

1.13

Betfair

1.11

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Carlisle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

61.4%

@ 1.62+4.4%

Under

38.6%

@ 2.15-4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.67

Pinnacle

1.63

1xBet

1.62

Superbet

1.62

Marathonbet

1.60

Under

Pinnacle

2.22

Superbet

2.17

1xBet

2.15

Marathonbet

2.14

Betano

2.10

Carlisle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over

Over

22.4%

@ 4.05-0.4%

Under

77.6%

@ 1.20+0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.25

Betano

4.05

1xBet

4.00

Superbet

3.90

Under

Betano

1.21

Superbet

1.21

1xBet

1.19

Marathonbet

1.17

Carlisle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over

Over

7.1%

@ 10.12-2.2%

Under

92.9%

@ 1.03+2.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

11.00

Betano

9.25

Under

Betano

1.04

Superbet

1.03

Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

38.2%

@ 2.36-0.9%

Under

61.8%

@ 1.52+0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.46

Betano

2.42

Superbet

2.35

Marathonbet

2.34

1xBet

2.30

Under

1xBet

1.55

Pinnacle

1.53

Superbet

1.53

Betano

1.52

Marathonbet

1.50

Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

9.3%

@ 8.25-1.9%

Under

90.7%

@ 1.04+1.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

9.40

1xBet

8.10

Superbet

7.90

Betano

7.60

Under

Betano

1.07

Superbet

1.05

1xBet

1.03

Marathonbet

1.01

Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

1.4%

@ 31.00-98.6%

Under

98.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

31.00

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Carlisle

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.9

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	0.57	0.71	0.50	0.94	0.62
vs Stronger (3)	0.33	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.50
vs Similar (27)	0.89	0.59	0.77	0.54	1.00	0.64
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	57% (+31pp vs league)

This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Scunthorpe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.3

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.03	0.67	1.00	0.60	1.07	0.73
vs Stronger (4)	0.75	0.75	1.50	0.50	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (26)	1.08	0.65	0.92	0.62	1.23	0.69
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	47% (+21pp vs league)

This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

81.1%

@ 1.16+1.5%

Under 0.5

18.9%

@ 4.55-1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.20

Betano

1.19

Bet365

1.18

Superbet

1.17

Marathonbet

1.12

Under

Marathonbet

4.70

1xBet

4.70

Betano

4.60

Bet365

4.50

Superbet

4.45

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

51.4%

@ 1.82+0.8%

Under 1.5

48.6%

@ 1.87-0.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.85

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.83

Superbet

1.83

1xBet

1.81

Under

Betano

1.95

10Bet

1.90

Marathonbet

1.89

1xBet

1.89

Superbet

1.87

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

25.4%

@ 3.59-0.4%

Under 2.5

74.6%

@ 1.24+0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

3.80

Bet365

3.75

Superbet

3.55

1xBet

3.50

Marathonbet

3.50

Under

Betano

1.30

Superbet

1.25

Bet365

1.25

1xBet

1.22

Marathonbet

1.22

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Carlisle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

66.1%

@ 1.44+1.5%

Under

33.9%

@ 2.62-1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.44

Superbet

1.44

1xBet

1.43

Under

Betano

2.67

Superbet

2.60

1xBet

2.60

Carlisle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

26.2%

@ 2.99-4.8%

Under

73.8%

@ 1.34+4.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

3.05

1xBet

3.00

Marathonbet

2.98

Betano

2.92

Under

Betano

1.38

Superbet

1.33

1xBet

1.33

Marathonbet

1.32

Carlisle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

7.5%

@ 7.37-5.1%

Under

92.5%

@ 1.06+5.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

7.90

Superbet

7.60

Betano

6.60

Under

Betano

1.09

Superbet

1.06

1xBet

1.04

Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

48.2%

@ 1.96+0.9%

Under

51.8%

@ 1.75-0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

1.97

1xBet

1.96

Betano

1.95

Superbet

1.95

Under

Betano

1.80

Superbet

1.76

1xBet

1.75

Marathonbet

1.71

Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

14.6%

@ 5.91-1.0%

Under

85.4%

@ 1.09+1.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

6.45

1xBet

5.90

Superbet

5.80

Betano

5.50

Under

Betano

1.13

Superbet

1.10

1xBet

1.08

Marathonbet

1.06

Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.2%

@ 15.25-4.1%

Under

97.8%

@ 1.02+4.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

19.00

Betano

11.50

Under

Betano

1.02

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals	98.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	97.8%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.1%	✓ Hit
Under 7.5	97.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	96.1%	1.01	Betano 1.02	Bet365 1.01	Superbet 1.01	-	-	+1.5%	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	94.2%	1.02	Betano 1.03	Bet365 1.02	1xBet 1.02	Superbet 1.01	Betfair 1.01	+0.1%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	92.9%	1.03	Betano 1.04	Superbet 1.03	-	-	-	+2.2%	✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals	92.5%	1.06	Betano 1.09	Superbet 1.06	1xBet 1.04	-	-	+5.1%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	91.3%	1.05	Bet365 1.06	Superbet 1.05	Betfair 1.03	-	-	+2.7%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	90.7%	1.04	Betano 1.07	Superbet 1.05	1xBet 1.03	Marathonbet 1.01	-	+1.9%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals	88.3%	1.11	Betano 1.14	Bet365 1.12	Superbet 1.12	Betfair 1.11	10Bet 1.11	+5.0%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	87.0%	1.04	Betano 1.08	Bet365 1.06	Superbet 1.05	BetVictor 1.03	Betfair 1.03	-2.2%	✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals	86.8%	1.06	Betano 1.08	Superbet 1.07	Bet365 1.07	1xBet 1.06	Betfair 1.06	-0.8%	✓ Hit
Over 1.5	86.2%	1.17	Betano 1.21	Pinnacle 1.20	10Bet 1.20	Bet365 1.18	Superbet 1.18	+7.3%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	85.4%	1.09	Betano 1.13	Superbet 1.10	1xBet 1.08	Marathonbet 1.06	-	+1.0%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	83.6%	1.12	William Hil 1.14	Betano 1.14	Bet365 1.14	Superbet 1.13	Betfair 1.11	+0.6%	✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals	83.0%	1.11	Betano 1.12	Bet365 1.11	1xBet 1.11	Betfair 1.10	Superbet 1.09	-1.1%	✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards	82.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Over 0.5 2H goals	81.1%	1.16	William Hil 1.20	Betano 1.19	Bet365 1.18	Superbet 1.17	Marathonbet 1.12	+1.5%	✓ Hit
Home or Draw	79.2%	1.17	Betano 1.23	BetVictor 1.20	Bet365 1.20	Betfair 1.20	William Hil 1.20	+0.6%	✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap	79.2%	1.18	Bet365 1.22	Superbet 1.20	Betfair 1.17	Marathonbet 1.14	-	+4.8%	✓ Hit
Home or Away	77.7%	1.20	William Hil 1.25	Betano 1.25	Superbet 1.23	Bet365 1.22	BetVictor 1.20	+1.0%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	77.6%	1.20	Betano 1.21	Superbet 1.21	1xBet 1.19	Marathonbet 1.17	-	+0.4%	✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals	74.6%	1.24	Betano 1.30	Superbet 1.25	Bet365 1.25	1xBet 1.22	Marathonbet 1.22	+0.4%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5	74.4%	1.16	Betano 1.20	Pinnacle 1.19	Superbet 1.18	Bet365 1.18	Unibet 1.16	-5.0%	✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals	74.1%	1.28	Betano 1.34	BetVictor 1.29	William Hil 1.29	Superbet 1.28	10Bet 1.28	+1.7%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals	73.8%	1.34	Betano 1.38	Superbet 1.33	1xBet 1.33	Marathonbet 1.32	-	+4.8%	✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards	71.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away over 0.5 goals	71.5%	1.40	1xBet 1.45	Betano 1.42	BetVictor 1.40	Pinnacle 1.40	Betfair 1.40	+5.5%	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (11)

€2m

HAR (14)

€1m

FG (4)

€1m

BU (6)

€1m

EAS (5)

€1m

SOU (3)

€1m

HAR (6)

€1m

SOL (3)

€0m

ALT (5)

€0m

ALD (4)

€0m

WOK (3)

€0m

YEO (3)

€0m

SCU (2)

€0m

TAM (4)

€0m

CAR (1)

€0m

WEA (2)

€0m

HAL (2)

€0m

GAT (1)

€0m

SUT (1)

€0m

Carlisle and Scunthorpe have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (3)

€0m

FG (2)

€0m

ALD (3)

€0m

HAR (4)

€0m

ALT (3)

€0m

SOL (2)

€0m

EAS (1)

€0m

HAR (2)

€0m

SCU (1)

€0m

GAT (1)

€0m

YEO (1)

€0m

BU (1)

€0m

TAM (2)

€0m

HAL (1)

€0m

WOK (1)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

SOU (0)

€0m

SUT (0)

€0m

WEA (0)

€0m

Carlisle and Scunthorpe have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (5)

€1m

HAR (4)

€1m

SOU (2)

€0m

BU (2)

€0m

HAR (2)

€0m

TAM (2)

€0m

YEO (1)

€0m

ALT (1)

€0m

EAS (1)

€0m

SUT (1)

€0m

WEA (1)

€0m

SCU (0)

€0m

FG (0)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

GAT (0)

€0m

ALD (0)

€0m

SOL (0)

€0m

HAL (0)

€0m

WOK (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BAR (3)

€1m

HAR (6)

€0m

BU (3)

€0m

EAS (3)

€0m

FG (2)

€0m

WOK (2)

€0m

CAR (1)

€0m

SOL (1)

€0m

SOU (1)

€0m

SCU (1)

€0m

YEO (1)

€0m

HAR (2)

€0m

WEA (1)

€0m

HAL (1)

€0m

ALD (1)

€0m

ALT (1)

€0m

GAT (0)

€0m

TAM (0)

€0m

SUT (0)

€0m

Carlisle and Scunthorpe have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings

CAR wins

Draws

SCU wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Carlisle vs Scunthorpe · H/A from CAR

Date	H/A	Game	Score
10/02/26	H	CAR Vs Scunthorpe	3-2
04/10/25	A	Scunthorpe Vs CAR	0-1
01/01/22	A	Scunthorpe Vs CAR	0-1
18/09/21	H	CAR Vs Scunthorpe	2-2
06/04/21	H	CAR Vs Scunthorpe	2-0
26/09/20	A	Scunthorpe Vs CAR	1-0

Carlisle

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
28/08/26	A	Wealdstone Vs CAR	1-1
15/08/26	A	Yeovil Vs CAR	1-1
03/05/26	H	CAR Vs Boreham Wood	1-1
25/04/26	H	CAR Vs Brackley Town	3-0
18/04/26	A	Truro Vs CAR	0-1
11/04/26	H	CAR Vs Sutton	3-0
06/04/26	A	Morecambe Vs CAR	2-2
03/04/26	H	CAR Vs Gateshead	0-0
28/03/26	A	Braintree Town Vs CAR	1-2
24/03/26	A	Halifax Vs CAR	0-1

Scunthorpe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
28/08/26	H	SCU Vs Solihull	3-1
22/08/26	A	Eastleigh Vs SCU	3-2
15/08/26	A	Southend Vs SCU	1-0
08/08/26	H	SCU Vs Yeovil	1-1
03/05/26	A	Rochdale Vs SCU	2-1
28/04/26	H	SCU Vs Southend	1-0
25/04/26	H	SCU Vs Eastleigh	0-1
18/04/26	A	Wealdstone Vs SCU	1-1
11/04/26	H	SCU Vs Brackley Town	1-0
06/04/26	A	Gateshead Vs SCU	2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Carlisle

England: National League

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Draws / 0 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWDDD	1.96
Home	WDWWD	2.21
Away	WDWDD	1.73

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	58%	67%	50%
AVG goals	3.04	3.33	2.77
Over 1.5 %	84%	92%	77%
Over 2.5 %	60%	62%	58%
Over 3.5 %	32%	38%	27%
Scored	1.86	2.33	1.42
Conceded	1.18	1.00	1.35
BTTS	56%	50%	62%
Clean Sheet	34%	42%	27%
Corners	14.00	-	14.00
Cards	3.58	3.27	3.87

Scunthorpe

England: National League

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LDLLW	1.64
Home	WLWDW	1.92
Away	LDLLL	1.36

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	46%	56%	36%
AVG goals	3.02	3.00	3.04
Over 1.5 %	82%	72%	92%
Over 2.5 %	58%	56%	60%
Over 3.5 %	34%	36%	32%
Scored	1.64	1.76	1.52
Conceded	1.38	1.24	1.52
BTTS	68%	60%	76%
Clean Sheet	18%	28%	8%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	4.05	4.00	4.10

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Sutton	5	12	80%	2.4	7	3	+4	2.0	60%	40%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	0.6	54%
2	Yeovil	5	11	60%	2.2	10	5	+5	3.0	100%	60%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	47%
3	Boreham Wood	4	10	75%	2.5	11	5	+6	4.0	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	1.2	58%
4	Harrogate	5	10	60%	2.0	13	9	+4	4.4	100%	100%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	1	0	2.6	1.8	-
5	F Fylde	5	10	60%	2.0	11	7	+4	3.6	100%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	1.4	-
6	Southend	5	10	60%	2.0	9	6	+3	3.0	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.8	1.2	52%
7	Eastleigh	5	10	60%	2.0	7	5	+2	2.4	60%	40%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.4	1.0	41%
8	K Kidderminster	4	8	50%	2.0	6	3	+3	2.2	75%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.8	-
9	Aldershot	5	8	40%	1.6	6	4	+2	2.0	60%	20%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	0.8	54%
10	Boston Utd	4	6	50%	1.5	4	3	+1	1.8	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.0	0.8	-
11	Halifax	5	6	40%	1.2	9	9	+0	3.6	80%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.8	48%
12	Hartlepool	5	6	40%	1.2	4	4	+0	1.6	40%	20%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	47%
13	Altrincham	5	6	40%	1.2	5	7	-2	2.4	60%	60%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.4	52%
14	Carlisle	3	5	33%	1.7	6	4	+2	3.3	100%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.3	49%
15	Wealdstone	4	5	25%	1.2	6	6	+0	3.0	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.5	57%
16	Scunthorpe	5	4	20%	0.8	8	10	-2	3.6	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.6	2.0	49%
17	Woking	4	4	25%	1.0	4	8	-4	3.0	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	50%
18	Gateshead	5	3	20%	0.6	4	8	-4	2.4	80%	60%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.6	50%
19	Forest Green	4	3	25%	0.8	4	9	-5	3.2	100%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	1.0	2.2	53%
20	Barrow	4	2	0%	0.5	4	7	-3	2.8	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	1	1	1.0	1.8	-
21	Tamworth	4	1	0%	0.2	7	12	-5	4.8	100%	100%	75%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	3.0	38%
22	Solihull	5	0	0%	0.0	5	16	-11	4.2	100%	80%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	3.2	48%

England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

← all matches

Carlisle vs Scunthorpe Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Carlisle

Scunthorpe

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Carlisle

Scunthorpe

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Carlisle

Scunthorpe

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Carlisle

Scunthorpe

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature