Carlisle’s recent draw against Yeovil and Southend’s three-game winning streak suggest a high-scoring encounter, and the model projects an average of 3.2 goals, with the most likely total being three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.4% chance. The model favours a home win, with a 41% chance, a draw at 25%, and an away win at 33%. Carlisle’s home form shows 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against similar opposition, while Southend’s away form yields 2.36 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.8%), Under 5.5 (89.4%), Over 1.5 (84.0%), Home +2 handicap (83.6%), and Under 5.5 cards (83.0%). These probabilities reflect the model’s confidence that Carlisle will edge the match while keeping the total goals comfortably below the higher thresholds.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Carlisle win
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend win
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Carlisle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.29
1.14
1.50
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (27)
2.00
1.15
2.38
1.15
1.64
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.20
1.80
1.07
2.07
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.50
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.00
1.19
2.00
0.85
2.00
1.54
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.6%
Under 3.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.7%
No
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.6%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
1-0
5.6%
3-1
5.3%
0-0
4.7%
Carlisle goals ↓
Southend goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.7%
4.3%
2.1%
0.8%
1
5.6%
11%
7.6%
3.8%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.9%
6.7%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.5%
5.3%
4.0%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.5%
2.3%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carlisle goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Carlisle is 0.32 points better than Southend in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Carlisle is 0.11 goals better than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Carlisle is 0.09 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Carlisle is 3.8 percentage points worse than Southend in terms of average possession (49% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Carlisle or Draw
68.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
25%
32%
covers Carlisle + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carlisle or Southend
75.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
25%
32%
covers Carlisle + Southend
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Southend
56.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
25%
32%
covers Draw + Southend
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Carlisle over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Carlisle, so a minus line means Carlisle give that many goals of a start and Southend receive them. At -1, Carlisle must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Carlisle win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Carlisle)
Carlisle -2
10.3%
Draw -2
13.3%
Southend +2
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Carlisle)
Carlisle -1
23.6%
Draw -1
19.5%
Southend +1
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Carlisle)
Carlisle +1
68.0%
Draw +1
16.5%
Southend -1
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Carlisle)
Carlisle +2
84.5%
Draw +2
9.6%
Southend -2
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Carlisle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.57
0.57
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (27)
1.11
0.52
1.62
0.54
0.64
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.40
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.62
1.15
0.38
0.85
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.4%
Under 0.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.8%
Under 1.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.1%
Under 2.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Carlisle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.71
0.57
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.63
0.77
0.62
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
0.73
0.67
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.58
0.85
0.46
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.8%
Under 0.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.0%
Under 1.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.0%
Under 2.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Carlisle and Southend have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Carlisle and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Carlisle and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
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Sutton
Yeovil
Boreham Wood
Harrogate
Eastleigh
Aldershot
Boston Utd
Halifax
Hartlepool
Altrincham
Wealdstone
Scunthorpe
Woking
Gateshead
Forest Green
Barrow
Tamworth
Solihull