This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.23
1.87
0.93
1.47
1.53
vs Stronger (22)
1.55
1.32
1.60
1.20
1.50
1.42
vs Similar (8)
2.00
1.00
2.40
0.40
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.7%
@ 2.42+4.8%
Under 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.54-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.1%
1-0
9.4%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.5%
0-2 ✓
6.5%
Carlisle goals ↓
Sutton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.4%
6.5%
2.6%
0.8%
1
9.4%
14%
7.9%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.5%
7.9%
4.8%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.6%
3.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carlisle goals (down), columns = Sutton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Exeter
1.83
Forest Green
1.83
Bristol Rvs
1.74
Northampton
1.74
Port Vale
1.70
Swindon
1.67
Mansfield
1.67
Sutton
1.65
Tranmere
1.63
Salford
1.52
Newport County
1.50
Crawley Town
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.26
Bradford
1.26
Colchester
1.20
Walsall
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Carlisle
1.15
Rochdale
1.15
Harrogate
1.15
Stevenage
1.02
Barrow
0.96
Oldham
0.83
Scunthorpe
0.57
Carlisle is 0.50 points worse than Sutton in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Swindon
1.67
Forest Green
1.63
Bristol Rvs
1.54
Sutton
1.50
Newport County
1.46
Port Vale
1.46
Mansfield
1.46
Exeter
1.41
Harrogate
1.39
Leyton Orient
1.35
Salford
1.30
Northampton
1.30
Crawley Town
1.22
Tranmere
1.15
Bradford
1.15
Rochdale
1.11
Colchester
1.04
Walsall
1.02
Oldham
1.00
Stevenage
0.98
Hartlepool
0.96
Barrow
0.96
Carlisle
0.85
Scunthorpe
0.63
Carlisle is 0.65 goals worse than Sutton in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Northampton
0.83
Tranmere
0.87
Exeter
0.89
Forest Green
0.96
Port Vale
1.00
Salford
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.02
Bristol Rvs
1.07
Mansfield
1.13
Sutton
1.15
Swindon
1.17
Bradford
1.20
Barrow
1.24
Newport County
1.26
Rochdale
1.28
Walsall
1.30
Colchester
1.30
Carlisle
1.35
Hartlepool
1.39
Crawley Town
1.43
Stevenage
1.48
Oldham
1.63
Harrogate
1.63
Scunthorpe
1.96
Carlisle is 0.20 goals worse than Sutton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
60%
Forest Green
54%
Rochdale
54%
Leyton Orient
53%
Exeter
53%
Salford
51%
Newport County
51%
Mansfield
51%
Tranmere
51%
Hartlepool
51%
Harrogate
51%
Barrow
51%
Port Vale
50%
Walsall
49%
Bradford
49%
Oldham
48%
Northampton
48%
Crawley Town
47%
Colchester
47%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
46%
Scunthorpe
46%
Sutton
44%
Carlisle is 2.3 percentage points better than Sutton in terms of average possession (46% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Carlisle
For 5.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sutton
For 2.9 · Against 5.7 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Carlisle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.1
9.2
3.1
2.8
3.3
24.6
25.4
23.9
vs Stronger (34)
9.6
10.5
8.8
3.1
2.8
3.4
24.7
25.5
23.9
vs Similar (16)
9.6
9.2
10.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
24.5
25.0
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
48%
44%
28%
24%
32%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
72%
76%
68%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.4
10.9
3.5
3.7
3.3
22.1
24.1
20.1
vs Stronger (33)
9.4
8.4
10.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
22.3
24.0
20.6
vs Similar (17)
12.5
12.7
12.3
3.2
3.6
2.8
21.3
24.3
18.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
38%
69%
48%
52%
44%
54%
69%
38%
% under line
46%
62%
31%
52%
48%
56%
46%
31%
62%
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Oldham
10.9
Exeter
10.6
Forest Green
10.3
Sutton
10.2
Rochdale
10.1
Tranmere
10.1
Swindon
10.0
Scunthorpe
9.9
Barrow
9.8
Carlisle
9.6
Colchester
9.5
Crawley Town
9.4
Stevenage
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Leyton Orient
9.4
Bradford
9.3
Mansfield
9.2
Harrogate
9.1
Northampton
9.0
Port Vale
9.0
Walsall
8.9
Newport County
8.9
Hartlepool
8.8
Salford
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.2
Barrow
4.1
Salford
3.9
Leyton Orient
3.6
Northampton
3.6
Forest Green
3.5
Sutton
3.5
Mansfield
3.4
Colchester
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Crawley Town
3.4
Port Vale
3.3
Bradford
3.3
Tranmere
3.3
Walsall
3.1
Newport County
3.1
Oldham
3.1
Carlisle
3.1
Scunthorpe
3.0
Stevenage
3.0
Harrogate
3.0
Hartlepool
2.9
Exeter
2.7
Rochdale
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
26.2
Bristol Rvs
26.2
Mansfield
25.1
Walsall
25.1
Carlisle
24.6
Northampton
24.6
Tranmere
24.2
Harrogate
24.2
Bradford
24.0
Port Vale
24.0
Stevenage
24.0
Barrow
23.8
Scunthorpe
23.6
Salford
23.6
Swindon
23.4
Forest Green
23.4
Leyton Orient
23.3
Colchester
23.0
Hartlepool
22.7
Newport County
22.4
Sutton
22.1
Exeter
21.6
Oldham
21.6
Rochdale
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
37.3%
Under 9.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.9%
Under 3.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
25.3%
Under 21.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Carlisle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.20
0.53
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.45
0.55
0.33
0.22
0.55
0.82
vs Similar (10)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.80
0.53
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (22)
0.59
0.55
0.60
0.70
0.58
0.42
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.38
1.20
0.20
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Carlisle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.47
0.20
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.22
0.55
0.73
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.60
0.50
0.17
0.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sutton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.07
0.40
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (22)
0.95
0.77
1.00
0.50
0.92
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.62
1.20
0.20
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
SWI (22)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SCU (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Carlisle and Sutton have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Carlisle and Sutton have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Carlisle and Sutton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Forest Green
Exeter
Bristol Rvs
Northampton
Port Vale
Swindon
Mansfield
Tranmere
Salford
Newport County
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