Benfica is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting an away win at a 65% probability. This is largely due to the home side's vulnerability at home, as Casa Pia has struggled to score against stronger opponents, averaging just 0.88 goals per match at home. In contrast, Benfica has shown its prowess on the road, scoring 1.92 goals per match against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a total of 2.8 goals, with the most likely score being 0-2 Benfica at a 12.1% probability. Casa Pia has also struggled to defend at home, conceding 0.75 goals per match against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls at 86.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.7%, and Over 3.5 cards at 78.5%. Casa Pia has a 13% chance of winning at home, a 22% chance of drawing, and a 65% chance of losing to Benfica.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Benfica secured a resounding 0-7 victory, extending their two-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 68 % probability and the model’s call was correct. Every suggested pick hit: Home under 3.5 goals at 99.4 %, Away +2 handicap at 96.8 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 96.4 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 93.6 %, Over 2.5 cards at 90.0 %, Draw or Away at 89.1 %, Away +1 handicap at 89.1 %, and Away over 0.5 goals at 87.4 %. The most likely score of 0-2 came close, and the total of 7 goals far exceeded the expected 2.8. The model’s selections performed flawlessly.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Casa Pia win✗ Miss
10.9%
Avg Implied 6.9% · @ 13.56
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
16.00
Betano
15.50
Pinnacle
14.41
Marathonbet
14.25
Dafabet
14.00
Draw✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied 14.6% · @ 6.46
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.46
Pinnacle
7.06
Dafabet
7.00
Betano
6.60
Marathonbet
6.55
Benfica win✓ Hit
68.1%
Avg Implied 78.5% · @ 1.20
Edge
-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.22
SBO
1.21
Dafabet
1.21
10Bet
1.21
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Casa Pia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.43
1.20
1.40
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.25
0.75
0.75
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.50
1.36
1.64
0.73
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.03
2.87
0.87
1.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.57
2.00
1.67
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (23)
2.39
0.87
3.08
0.67
1.64
1.09
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
@ 1.15-3.2%
Under 1.5
22.3%
@ 4.85+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.50
888Sport
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
@ 1.54-7.7%
Under 2.5
47.1%
@ 2.36+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.54
Under
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.46
888Sport
2.45
10Bet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.6%
@ 2.37-9.0%
Under 3.5
69.4%
@ 1.55+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.39
10Bet
2.38
Unibet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.7%
@ 2.17+3.0%
No
54.3%
@ 1.62-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.18
No
Betfair
1.67
William Hil
1.65
888Sport
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.2%@ 5.70+5.4%
0-1
11.8%@ 6.89+5.4%
1-1
10.0%@ 11.08+6.0%
1-2
9.5%@ 8.70+4.3%
0-3
9.1%@ 6.64+2.4%
0-0
7.0%@ 14.69+4.0%
1-3
6.5%@ 10.23+2.2%
0-4
4.7%@ 10.02+0.3%
Casa Pia goals ↓
Benfica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
12%
13%
9.1%
4.7%
1
3.5%
10%
9.5%
6.5%
3.4%
2
1.6%
3.3%
3.4%
2.3%
1.2%
3
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Casa Pia goals (down), columns = Benfica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.24
Arouca
1.24
Alverca
1.15
Estoril
1.15
Academico Viseu
1.08
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Maritimo
1.03
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Casa Pia is 1.41 points worse than Benfica in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 2.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
GIL Vicente
1.38
Arouca
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.04
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Maritimo
0.99
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Casa Pia is 1.26 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 2.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Casa Pia
1.58
Academico Viseu
1.61
Estrela
1.65
Rio Ave
1.68
Estoril
1.68
Maritimo
1.69
Arouca
1.88
Casa Pia is 0.85 goals worse than Benfica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 0.74).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Casa Pia is 16.7 percentage points worse than Benfica in terms of average possession (41% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Casa Pia
For 5.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 12.9 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
For 8.5 · Against 3.1 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 14.4 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Casa Pia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.3
10.4
5.2
5.1
5.3
29.4
29.6
29.2
vs Stronger (16)
9.8
9.1
10.6
4.3
4.1
4.6
27.1
28.0
25.9
vs Similar (34)
9.9
9.4
10.3
5.6
5.7
5.5
30.6
30.6
30.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
39%
50%
76%
79%
73%
91%
91%
92%
% under line
55%
61%
50%
24%
21%
27%
9%
9%
8%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.6
10.9
4.8
4.7
4.8
25.6
26.0
25.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
9.2
8.2
10.1
6.1
6.5
5.7
24.6
25.3
24.0
vs Weaker (37)
10.6
10.1
11.2
4.3
4.1
4.5
26.0
26.3
25.6
% over line
59%
57%
61%
66%
71%
62%
72%
70%
74%
% under line
41%
43%
39%
34%
29%
38%
28%
30%
26%
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.3
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
10.0
Academico Viseu
9.9
Casa Pia
9.8
Arouca
9.1
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Alverca
9.0
Estrela
9.0
FC Porto
8.9
Santa Clara
8.9
Guimaraes
8.7
SC Braga
8.3
Maritimo
8.2
Moreirense
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.0
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.8
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.6
Nacional
5.5
FC Porto
5.4
Guimaraes
5.4
Famalicao
5.4
Benfica
5.3
Sporting CP
5.3
Moreirense
5.2
Rio Ave
5.1
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.1
Santa Clara
30.2
Estrela
30.1
Moreirense
29.3
Casa Pia
29.3
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Nacional
27.2
Estoril
27.0
Rio Ave
27.0
Sporting CP
26.7
Arouca
26.1
FC Porto
25.8
Benfica
25.8
Academico Viseu
24.8
SC Braga
24.1
Alverca
23.6
Maritimo
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.9%
@ 1.63-3.0%
Under 9.5
46.1%
@ 2.15+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.26
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.19
Unibet
2.10
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.1%
Under 3.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.4%
Under 21.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Casa Pia or Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.32
Edge
+10.0%
11%
21%
68%
covers Casa Pia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.96
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.45
888Sport
4.40
William Hil
4.40
Casa Pia or Benfica✓ Hit
78.9%
Avg Implied 86.1% · @ 1.10
Edge
-7.2%
11%
21%
68%
covers Casa Pia + Benfica
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Draw or Benfica✓ Hit
89.1%
Avg Implied 91.9% · @ 1.03
Edge
-2.8%
11%
21%
68%
covers Draw + Benfica
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
William Hil
1.04
Betfair
1.03
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Casa Pia over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
51.2%
@ 2.06+6.0%
Under
48.8%
@ 1.70-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
1xBet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Under
Betfair
1.80
888Sport
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Casa Pia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 6.61+2.0%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.09-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.11
888Sport
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Casa Pia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 23.25-0.5%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
29.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Casa Pia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.4%
@ 1.05-2.9%
Under
12.6%
@ 9.78+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Under
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Betano
7.90
Benfica over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
61.4%
@ 1.30-10.4%
Under
38.6%
@ 3.30+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
888Sport
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Benfica over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
34.3%
@ 1.97-13.0%
Under
65.7%
@ 1.77+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.01
Unibet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Betano
1.78
Benfica over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
15.6%
@ 3.44-11.4%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.28+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.62
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Casa Pia, so a minus line means Casa Pia give that many goals of a start and Benfica receive them. At -1, Casa Pia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Casa Pia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Casa Pia)Actual: Benfica
Casa Pia -2
0.6%
Draw -2
2.5%
Benfica +2
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Casa Pia)Actual: Benfica
Casa Pia -1
3.2%
@ 43.50+1.0%
Draw -1
7.7%
@ 15.50+1.6%
Benfica +1
89.1%
@ 1.03-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
41.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Handicap +1 (Casa Pia)Actual: Benfica
Casa Pia +1
31.9%
@ 4.27+11.0%
Draw +1
23.9%
@ 3.83+0.5%
Benfica -1
44.1%
@ 1.61-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Away
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Unibet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Handicap +2 (Casa Pia)Actual: Benfica
Casa Pia +2
55.9%
@ 2.18+14.5%
Draw +2
21.1%
@ 3.83-2.5%
Benfica -2
23.0%
@ 2.57-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Away
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.60
Unibet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.42
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Casa Pia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.50
0.73
0.55
0.27
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.40
1.33
0.40
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.71
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.30
0.30
1.50
0.25
1.09
0.36
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Casa Pia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Casa Pia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.53
0.93
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.55
1.00
0.64
1.09
0.45
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.53
0.47
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.09
0.57
1.58
0.42
0.55
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Casa Pia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Casa Pia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Casa Pia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
89.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
William Hil
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
89.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
87.4%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
84.4%
1.28
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+11.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
83.8%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.11
888Sport
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
William Hil
1.11
-7.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.7%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Unibet
1.16
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
75.5%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Casa Pia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Abdu Conté0%
Rochinha0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
André Geraldes0%
Alassana Jatta0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Henrique Araújo0%
João Goulart0%
David Sousa0%
Gabi Pereira0%
Pedro Rosas0%
André Gomes0%
Selvi Clúa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastián Pérez67%
Alassana Jatta33%
David Sousa33%
Abdu Conté0%
Rochinha0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
André Geraldes0%
Henrique Araújo0%
João Goulart0%
Gabi Pereira0%
Pedro Rosas0%
André Gomes0%
Selvi Clúa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Abdu Conté0%
Rochinha0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
André Geraldes0%
Alassana Jatta0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Henrique Araújo0%
João Goulart0%
David Sousa0%
Gabi Pereira0%
Pedro Rosas0%
André Gomes0%
Selvi Clúa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Abdu Conté0%
Rochinha0%
Lawrence Ofori0%
André Geraldes0%
Alassana Jatta0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Henrique Araújo0%
João Goulart0%
David Sousa0%
Gabi Pereira0%
Pedro Rosas0%
André Gomes0%
Selvi Clúa0%
Benfica · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vangelis Pavlidis37%
Rafa Silva33%
Anísio Cabral33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu25%
Alexander Bah22%
Andreas Schjelderup22%
Franjo Ivanović18%
Richard Ríos17%
Florentino Luís17%
Georgiy Sudakov12%
Leandro Barreiro11%
Sidny Lopes Cabral9%
Fredrik Aursnes9%
João Rêgo8%
Gianluca Prestianni8%
Enzo Barrenechea5%
Nicolás Otamendi4%
Samuel Dahl4%
Tomás Araújo3%
Amar Dedić2%
Anatoliy Trubin2%
Bruma0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Samuel Soares0%
Manu Silva0%
António Silva0%
João Veloso0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
Daniel Banjaqui0%
José Neto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Richard Ríos34%
Gianluca Prestianni29%
Enzo Barrenechea25%
Samuel Soares25%
Nicolás Otamendi22%
Alexander Bah22%
António Silva21%
Tomás Araújo17%
Florentino Luís17%
Amar Dedić15%
Dodi Lukebakio14%
Samuel Dahl10%
Sidny Lopes Cabral9%
Georgiy Sudakov9%
Leandro Barreiro9%
João Rêgo8%
Vangelis Pavlidis8%
Andreas Schjelderup7%
Fredrik Aursnes7%
Anatoliy Trubin4%
Franjo Ivanović3%
Rafa Silva0%
Bruma0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Manu Silva0%
João Veloso0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
Daniel Banjaqui0%
José Neto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sidny Lopes Cabral18%
Andreas Schjelderup15%
Dodi Lukebakio14%
Leandro Barreiro13%
Georgiy Sudakov12%
Fredrik Aursnes11%
Gianluca Prestianni11%
Amar Dedić10%
Richard Ríos10%
Vangelis Pavlidis8%
Tomás Araújo6%
António Silva5%
Samuel Dahl4%
Franjo Ivanović3%
Rafa Silva0%
Florentino Luís0%
Nicolás Otamendi0%
Anatoliy Trubin0%
Bruma0%
Alexander Bah0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Samuel Soares0%
Manu Silva0%
João Veloso0%
João Rêgo0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
Daniel Banjaqui0%
José Neto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vangelis Pavlidis37%
Daniel Banjaqui33%
Dodi Lukebakio23%
Rafa Silva22%
Richard Ríos20%
Gianluca Prestianni13%
Franjo Ivanović13%
Sidny Lopes Cabral9%
Georgiy Sudakov9%
Nicolás Otamendi7%
Andreas Schjelderup5%
António Silva3%
Enzo Barrenechea2%
Fredrik Aursnes2%
Leandro Barreiro2%
Florentino Luís0%
Anatoliy Trubin0%
Bruma0%
Amar Dedić0%
Alexander Bah0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Henrique Araújo0%
Samuel Soares0%
Manu Silva0%
João Veloso0%
João Rêgo0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
José Neto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Casa Pia's squad is €330m less valuable than Benfica's (€27m vs €357m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Casa Pia's attack is €163m less valuable than Benfica's (€9m vs €172m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Casa Pia's midfield is €71m less valuable than Benfica's (€6m vs €77m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Casa Pia's defence is €96m less valuable than Benfica's (€12m vs €108m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Maritimo
GIL Vicente
Estrela
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Academico Viseu
Alverca
SC Braga
Famalicao
Estoril