Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian Result & Analysis

Celtic’s home form is a clear advantage: they average 2.17 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while Hearts struggle away, conceding 1.5 to stronger teams. The model therefore picks a home win as the most likely outcome, with a 65% probability, followed by a 23% draw and a 12% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.7, with the single most likely scoreline 2-0 for Celtic at 13.1%. The match is expected to see a total of 2 goals, a 26% chance that the final tally will be exactly 2. The suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards at 77.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 75.6% (miss), Over 1.5 goals at 75.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.4%, and Under 3.5 goals at 72.4%. Each pick is listed with its probability, and the edge percentages are noted where available.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite Celtic failed to deliver a win, with Hearts pulling off a 1-2 victory. The model had tipped a home win at 65%, but the result was an away triumph, so the model’s pick was wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the actual result. The model’s other selections all settled: Over 2.5 cards hit at 77.7%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 76.8%, Over 8.5 corners missed at 75.6%, Over 1.5 hit at 75.3%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 73.8%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 73.4%, and Under 3.5 hit at 72.4%. Hearts’ form, unbeaten in their last five, proved decisive.