This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.27
1.67
1.07
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (15)
1.47
1.53
2.00
1.44
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.40
1.22
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.7%
Under 1.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.5%
@ 1.96+20.4%
Under 2.5
31.5%
@ 1.82-20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 3.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.7%
No
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.9%
3-1
5.9%
2-0 ✓
5.8%
1-0
4.9%
3-2
4.6%
Cesena goals ↓
Brescia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
1
4.9%
9.9%
6.9%
3.5%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.9%
6.9%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.9%
5.9%
4.6%
2.3%
0.9%
4
1.9%
3.0%
2.3%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cesena goals (down), columns = Brescia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sassuolo
2.16
Pisa
1.95
Spezia
1.74
Cremonese
1.62
Juve Stabia
1.49
Catanzaro
1.37
Cesena
1.36
Palermo
1.33
Bari
1.26
Sudtirol
1.21
Modena
1.18
Carrarese
1.18
Reggiana
1.16
Mantova
1.16
Brescia
1.13
Frosinone
1.13
Sampdoria
1.13
Salernitana
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Cosenza
0.89
Cesena is 0.23 points better than Brescia in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sassuolo
2.05
Cremonese
1.64
Pisa
1.63
Spezia
1.55
Palermo
1.33
Sudtirol
1.32
Catanzaro
1.29
Modena
1.26
Mantova
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Brescia
1.11
Reggiana
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.10
Bari
1.08
Carrarese
1.03
Sampdoria
1.03
Frosinone
0.97
Salernitana
0.95
Cosenza
0.84
Cittadella
0.82
Cesena is 0.07 goals better than Brescia in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spezia
0.88
Pisa
0.97
Sassuolo
1.00
Bari
1.05
Juve Stabia
1.10
Palermo
1.13
Cremonese
1.14
Catanzaro
1.20
Cesena
1.23
Salernitana
1.26
Sampdoria
1.26
Brescia
1.26
Carrarese
1.29
Frosinone
1.32
Modena
1.32
Reggiana
1.37
Cittadella
1.42
Cosenza
1.47
Mantova
1.47
Sudtirol
1.50
Cesena is 0.03 goals better than Brescia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
62%
Cremonese
60%
Catanzaro
55%
Sassuolo
52%
Salernitana
52%
Juve Stabia
52%
Bari
51%
Spezia
50%
Palermo
49%
Carrarese
49%
Cosenza
49%
Cesena
49%
Modena
48%
Sampdoria
48%
Frosinone
47%
Brescia
46%
Pisa
46%
Cittadella
45%
Reggiana
44%
Sudtirol
44%
Cesena is 2.2 percentage points better than Brescia in terms of average possession (49% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cesena
For 4.1 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 14.6 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brescia
For 5.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 14.8 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cesena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.3
11.0
4.3
4.1
4.5
29.0
28.3
29.8
vs Stronger (3)
11.7
11.0
12.0
6.3
8.0
5.5
26.7
27.0
26.5
vs Similar (37)
9.4
8.2
10.8
4.2
4.2
4.3
29.4
28.9
30.1
vs Weaker (10)
9.6
8.0
11.2
3.9
3.0
4.8
28.1
26.4
29.8
% over line
46%
27%
67%
64%
58%
71%
98%
96%
100%
% under line
54%
73%
33%
36%
42%
29%
2%
4%
0%
This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.6
9.6
4.9
5.1
4.8
29.0
28.4
29.6
vs Stronger (22)
9.5
10.0
8.8
4.8
5.2
4.4
27.2
26.2
28.3
vs Similar (26)
9.5
9.2
9.8
5.0
4.9
5.1
30.5
31.0
30.1
vs Weaker (2)
12.5
9.0
16.0
5.5
6.0
5.0
31.5
26.0
37.0
% over line
48%
50%
46%
76%
80%
72%
88%
92%
83%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
24%
20%
28%
12%
8%
17%
This opponent (Cesena) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Palermo
10.6
Salernitana
10.5
Cosenza
10.5
Juve Stabia
10.5
Sassuolo
10.4
Cremonese
10.0
Frosinone
9.9
Brescia
9.8
Spezia
9.8
Modena
9.6
Cesena
9.6
Bari
9.5
Catanzaro
9.1
Cittadella
9.1
Reggiana
9.0
Sudtirol
8.8
Carrarese
8.8
Sampdoria
8.8
Pisa
8.6
Mantova
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Juve Stabia
6.5
Cosenza
6.2
Spezia
6.1
Pisa
6.0
Sampdoria
5.9
Bari
5.8
Reggiana
5.7
Modena
5.6
Sudtirol
5.3
Palermo
5.1
Catanzaro
5.1
Cittadella
5.1
Carrarese
5.1
Cremonese
5.1
Brescia
5.1
Mantova
5.0
Salernitana
4.7
Frosinone
4.7
Cesena
4.3
Sassuolo
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
36.6
Juve Stabia
33.1
Spezia
31.8
Cittadella
30.7
Sampdoria
30.1
Reggiana
30.0
Bari
29.9
Sudtirol
29.7
Carrarese
29.2
Cesena
29.0
Brescia
28.9
Catanzaro
28.7
Modena
28.6
Pisa
28.3
Palermo
27.4
Cosenza
27.3
Cremonese
27.1
Salernitana
26.0
Frosinone
24.9
Sassuolo
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
38.8%
Under 9.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.0%
Under 3.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.1%
Under 21.5
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cesena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.19
0.50
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.43
1.17
0.50
0.36
0.36
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.93
0.40
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (15)
0.93
0.73
1.33
0.67
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.43
0.00
0.00
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cesena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cesena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.69
0.88
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.83
0.67
0.83
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brescia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.73
0.67
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.80
0.67
0.78
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cesena) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cesena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cesena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cesena
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Shpendi27%
Dario Šarić19%
Antonino La Gumina17%
Augustus Kargbo15%
Marco Curto14%
Elayis Tavsan13%
Giuseppe Prestia11%
Mirko Antonucci11%
Simone Bastoni10%
Tommaso Berti6%
Giacomo Calò6%
Emanuele Adamo5%
Daniele Donnarumma3%
Joseph Ceesay3%
Raffaele Celia3%
Jonathan Klinsmann0%
Matteo Pisseri0%
Riccardo Chiarello0%
Saber Hraiech0%
Sydney van Hooijdonk0%
Massimiliano Mangraviti0%
Matteo Piacentini0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Flavio Russo0%
Simone Pieraccini0%
Leonardo Mendicino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Emanuele Adamo35%
Marco Curto29%
Matteo Francesconi28%
Giacomo Calò28%
Leonardo Mendicino26%
Augustus Kargbo25%
Andrea Ciofi25%
Matteo Pisseri23%
Flavio Russo20%
Simone Bastoni18%
Antonino La Gumina17%
Sydney van Hooijdonk13%
Mirko Antonucci13%
Joseph Ceesay13%
Raffaele Celia13%
Massimiliano Mangraviti13%
Jonathan Klinsmann10%
Daniele Donnarumma10%
Simone Pieraccini10%
Elayis Tavsan10%
Matteo Piacentini9%
Giuseppe Prestia8%
Cristian Shpendi8%
Dario Šarić6%
Tommaso Berti3%
Riccardo Chiarello0%
Saber Hraiech0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Augustus Kargbo15%
Daniele Donnarumma10%
Flavio Russo10%
Joseph Ceesay10%
Antonino La Gumina8%
Giacomo Calò8%
Mirko Antonucci8%
Elayis Tavsan6%
Tommaso Berti6%
Andrea Ciofi6%
Giuseppe Prestia5%
Simone Bastoni5%
Raffaele Celia3%
Matteo Francesconi3%
Cristian Shpendi3%
Jonathan Klinsmann0%
Matteo Pisseri0%
Marco Curto0%
Dario Šarić0%
Riccardo Chiarello0%
Saber Hraiech0%
Sydney van Hooijdonk0%
Massimiliano Mangraviti0%
Matteo Piacentini0%
Emanuele Adamo0%
Simone Pieraccini0%
Leonardo Mendicino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cristian Shpendi22%
Augustus Kargbo15%
Dario Šarić12%
Simone Bastoni8%
Tommaso Berti6%
Mirko Antonucci5%
Elayis Tavsan3%
Giacomo Calò3%
Emanuele Adamo3%
Massimiliano Mangraviti3%
Jonathan Klinsmann0%
Matteo Pisseri0%
Marco Curto0%
Antonino La Gumina0%
Giuseppe Prestia0%
Riccardo Chiarello0%
Daniele Donnarumma0%
Saber Hraiech0%
Sydney van Hooijdonk0%
Joseph Ceesay0%
Raffaele Celia0%
Matteo Piacentini0%
Andrea Ciofi0%
Matteo Francesconi0%
Flavio Russo0%
Simone Pieraccini0%
Leonardo Mendicino0%
Brescia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabriele Moncini20%
Gennaro Borrelli19%
Flavio Bianchi17%
Birkir Bjarnason15%
Riccardo Fogliata14%
Matthias Verreth12%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah8%
Davide Adorni8%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Ante Matej Jurić6%
Gabriele Calvani5%
Andrea Cistana4%
Nicolas Galazzi4%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Dimitri Bisoli3%
Michele Besaggio3%
Niccolò Corrado3%
Lorenzo Dickmann0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Luca D'Andrea0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fabrizio Paghera38%
Davide Adorni30%
Lorenzo Dickmann26%
Dimitri Bisoli26%
Matthias Verreth24%
Gennaro Borrelli22%
Ante Matej Jurić19%
Andrea Papetti16%
Birkir Bjarnason15%
Giacomo Olzer15%
Michele Besaggio14%
Gabriele Calvani14%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah12%
Luca D'Andrea11%
Andrea Cistana9%
Flavio Bianchi8%
Nicolas Galazzi8%
Gabriele Moncini8%
Luca Lezzerini8%
Alexander Jallow6%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Niccolò Corrado3%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Galazzi21%
Dimitri Bisoli19%
Ante Matej Jurić9%
Andrea Cistana9%
Lorenzo Dickmann5%
Niccolò Corrado5%
Andrea Papetti5%
Gabriele Moncini4%
Birkir Bjarnason4%
Giacomo Olzer4%
Massimo Bertagnoli3%
Matthias Verreth3%
Gennaro Borrelli3%
Davide Adorni0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Flavio Bianchi0%
Luca D'Andrea0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Gabriele Calvani0%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gennaro Borrelli33%
Gabriele Moncini24%
Luca D'Andrea11%
Matthias Verreth9%
Davide Adorni8%
Lorenzo Dickmann8%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Massimo Bertagnoli7%
Dimitri Bisoli6%
Flavio Bianchi4%
Birkir Bjarnason4%
Ante Matej Jurić3%
Andrea Cistana0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Niccolò Corrado0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Nicolas Galazzi0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Gabriele Calvani0%
Patrick Amiamo Nuamah0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sassuolo
Pisa
Spezia
Cremonese
Juve Stabia
Catanzaro
Palermo
Bari
Sudtirol
Modena
Carrarese
Mantova
Sampdoria
Reggiana
Frosinone
Salernitana
Cittadella
Cosenza