The contest between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win chances sit at 31% and 39% respectively, while a draw is also 31%. The expected total of goals is 2.3, and the most likely total is 2, with a 28% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% probability. Charleroi have been on a five-game winning streak, recently beating Kortrijk 3-1, whereas Westerlo are coming off a draw, having scored twice and conceded twice against Zulte Waregem. The model’s only selection is Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.4% chance. These figures paint a picture of a closely contested match where the away side edges ahead in probability, but the balance remains razor-thin.
Results analysis
The unexpected draw stunned the pre-match favourite, who had been tipped to win away with a 39% probability. Charleroi, on a five-game winning streak, and KVC Westerlo, fresh from a draw, finished 0-0, a result that the model had not predicted. The model’s only selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark with a 79.4% chance. The pre-match favourite was wrong, but the model’s single pick proved correct. The final score of 0-0 matched the most likely score of 1-1 in the model’s distribution, yet the game ended in a stalemate, extending Charleroi’s run and leaving Westerlo’s hopes dashed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Charleroi win✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo win✗ Miss
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Charleroi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
25% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (KVC Westerlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KVC Westerlo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.75
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.1%
Under 2.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0 ✓
11.1%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.7%
Charleroi goals ↓
KVC Westerlo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.6%
3.2%
1.0%
1
9.2%
14%
8.2%
3.4%
1.1%
2
5.7%
7.1%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
3
2.0%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Charleroi goals (down), columns = KVC Westerlo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Club Brugge KV
2.13
Gent
2.00
Anderlecht
1.83
Oostende
1.63
Genk
1.60
Zulte Waregem
1.43
Standard Liege
1.37
Kortrijk
1.30
Charleroi
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.23
Lokeren
1.13
SK Beveren
1.10
KVC Westerlo
1.00
Mouscron-Peruwelz
1.00
St. Truiden
1.00
OH Leuven
0.97
Charleroi is 0.30 points better than KVC Westerlo in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Club Brugge KV
2.13
Gent
1.87
Oostende
1.83
Zulte Waregem
1.70
Anderlecht
1.70
KV Mechelen
1.60
Genk
1.40
OH Leuven
1.40
Standard Liege
1.37
SK Beveren
1.33
Mouscron-Peruwelz
1.30
Charleroi
1.20
KVC Westerlo
1.17
Lokeren
1.17
Kortrijk
1.03
St. Truiden
0.93
Charleroi is 0.03 goals better than KVC Westerlo in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Anderlecht
0.97
Gent
0.97
Club Brugge KV
1.00
Genk
1.00
Kortrijk
1.17
Charleroi
1.30
Lokeren
1.33
Oostende
1.47
St. Truiden
1.57
Zulte Waregem
1.67
KV Mechelen
1.67
Mouscron-Peruwelz
1.70
Standard Liege
1.70
OH Leuven
1.77
SK Beveren
1.90
KVC Westerlo
1.97
Charleroi is 0.67 goals better than KVC Westerlo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Charleroi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
KVC Westerlo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Charleroi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (KVC Westerlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KVC Westerlo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Charleroi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
75% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (KVC Westerlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KVC Westerlo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Charleroi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Charleroi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (KVC Westerlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KVC Westerlo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Charleroi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleroi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KVC Westerlo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Charleroi · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof50%
Aurélien Scheidler33%
Aiham Ousou33%
Cheick Keita33%
Antoine Colassin25%
Freddy Mbemba25%
Amine Boukamir25%
Patrick Pflücke0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aiham Ousou33%
Antoine Bernier25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Patrick Pflücke0%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Antoine Colassin0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Pflücke25%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof25%
Antoine Colassin25%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas25%
Adama Bojang25%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Aiham Ousou0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Pflücke75%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Aiham Ousou0%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Antoine Colassin0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
KVC Westerlo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Norman Bassette67%
Shunsuke Saito33%
Seiji Kimura0%
Cisse Sandra0%
Andreas Jungdal0%
Isa Sakamoto0%
Ibrahim Fofana0%
Dylan Ourega0%
Amando Lapage0%
Lucas Mbamba0%
Reda Laalaoui0%
Lasse Flø0%
David Amegnaglo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cisse Sandra33%
Lasse Flø33%
Seiji Kimura0%
Andreas Jungdal0%
Isa Sakamoto0%
Norman Bassette0%
Ibrahim Fofana0%
Dylan Ourega0%
Amando Lapage0%
Lucas Mbamba0%
Reda Laalaoui0%
Shunsuke Saito0%
David Amegnaglo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isa Sakamoto33%
Seiji Kimura0%
Cisse Sandra0%
Andreas Jungdal0%
Norman Bassette0%
Ibrahim Fofana0%
Dylan Ourega0%
Amando Lapage0%
Lucas Mbamba0%
Reda Laalaoui0%
Lasse Flø0%
Shunsuke Saito0%
David Amegnaglo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Norman Bassette33%
Seiji Kimura0%
Cisse Sandra0%
Andreas Jungdal0%
Isa Sakamoto0%
Ibrahim Fofana0%
Dylan Ourega0%
Amando Lapage0%
Lucas Mbamba0%
Reda Laalaoui0%
Lasse Flø0%
Shunsuke Saito0%
David Amegnaglo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
KW (26)
€38m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Charleroi's squad is €7m less valuable than KVC Westerlo's (€31m vs €38m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
SB (9)
€4m
Charleroi's attack is €3m less valuable than KVC Westerlo's (€13m vs €16m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Charleroi's midfield is €5m less valuable than KVC Westerlo's (€4m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
Charleroi's defence is €2m more valuable than KVC Westerlo's (€14m vs €12m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Club Brugge KV
Gent
Anderlecht
Oostende
Genk
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Kortrijk
KV Mechelen
SK Beveren
St. Truiden
OH Leuven