The model sees an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 43% chance versus 30% for a home victory and 27% for a draw. The expected goal tally hovers at 2.8, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 25% chance. The single score the model favours is 1-1, with a 12.8% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.
Charleroi, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Union St. Gilloise, on the road against a weaker side, posts 1.56 goals scored and 0.56 conceded. The home side’s recent five-game winning streak and the away side’s two-game run add confidence to the predicted outcome.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%, edge 6%), Under 6.5 (98.5%, edge 2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9%, edge 4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%, edge 4%), Under 5.5 (95.7%, edge 4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.4%, edge 2%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.2%, edge 4%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Charleroi win
30.1%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.19
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.35
Betano
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.20
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.39
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.59
1xBet
3.48
Dafabet
3.45
Betano
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Union St. Gilloise win
42.4%
Avg Implied 43.3% · @ 2.15
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Dafabet
2.19
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.18
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Charleroi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.13
1.50
1.25
1.43
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
1.22
1.33
0.83
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.50
1.05
1.60
1.50
1.40
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union St. Gilloise
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.83
2.00
0.62
1.36
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.77
1.15
2.00
0.78
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
0.50
2.00
0.43
1.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.7%
@ 1.27+4.3%
Under 1.5
22.3%
@ 3.50-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Unibet
3.75
Pinnacle
3.60
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.5%
@ 1.90+2.6%
Under 2.5
47.5%
@ 1.88-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Betfair
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Unibet
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.3%
@ 3.21+1.2%
Under 3.5
69.7%
@ 1.32-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.28
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
57.0%
@ 1.70+2.4%
No
43.0%
@ 2.04-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
No
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.08
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 5.98+5.8%
1-2
9.1%@ 7.89+3.5%
0-1
8.3%@ 7.28+2.3%
2-1
7.4%@ 10.08+3.1%
0-0
7.4%@ 10.03+3.1%
0-2
7.2%@ 9.75+2.7%
1-0
6.6%@ 9.11+1.8%
2-2
5.7%@ 11.92+2.0%
Charleroi goals ↓
Union St. Gilloise goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
8.3%
7.2%
3.7%
1.4%
1
6.6%
13%
9.1%
4.6%
1.8%
2
4.9%
7.4%
5.7%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.0%
3.1%
2.4%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Charleroi goals (down), columns = Union St. Gilloise goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Kortrijk
1.16
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
SK Beveren
0.99
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
Charleroi is 0.88 points worse than Union St. Gilloise in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 2.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Anderlecht
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
KVC Westerlo
1.25
Charleroi
1.25
Kortrijk
1.20
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
SK Beveren
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
Charleroi is 0.40 goals worse than Union St. Gilloise in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Kortrijk
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.61
SK Beveren
1.87
Charleroi is 0.57 goals worse than Union St. Gilloise in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
Charleroi is 2.3 percentage points worse than Union St. Gilloise in terms of average possession (50% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Charleroi
For 6.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Union St. Gilloise
For 4.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Charleroi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.3
3.3
3.0
3.5
22.0
22.6
21.3
vs Stronger (13)
9.6
9.4
9.8
2.5
2.6
2.5
20.7
21.2
20.2
vs Similar (34)
10.7
11.4
10.0
3.7
3.3
4.2
22.2
22.8
21.8
vs Weaker (3)
13.5
9.0
18.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
23.5
27.0
20.0
% over line
57%
50%
64%
44%
42%
46%
55%
50%
59%
% under line
43%
50%
36%
56%
58%
54%
45%
50%
41%
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union St. Gilloise
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.2
9.4
4.1
3.8
4.5
21.8
21.7
21.9
vs Stronger (1)
5.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
5.0
17.0
-
17.0
vs Similar (21)
8.4
7.2
10.2
4.8
4.4
5.4
21.9
22.1
21.6
vs Weaker (28)
9.2
9.2
9.2
3.6
3.2
3.9
21.9
21.4
22.4
% over line
45%
43%
48%
60%
50%
71%
53%
55%
52%
% under line
55%
57%
52%
40%
50%
29%
47%
45%
48%
This opponent (Charleroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Cercle Brugge
11.0
Charleroi
10.6
KVC Westerlo
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.4
Anderlecht
10.3
Kortrijk
10.1
Gent
10.1
KV Mechelen
10.0
Standard Liege
10.0
Zulte Waregem
9.8
St. Truiden
9.8
Lommel United
9.8
SK Beveren
9.7
Genk
9.6
Antwerp
9.2
Union St. Gilloise
9.0
RAAL La Louvière
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.2
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
OH Leuven
4.8
SK Beveren
4.4
Standard Liege
4.3
Kortrijk
4.2
Lommel United
4.1
Antwerp
4.1
KV Mechelen
4.1
St. Truiden
4.0
Cercle Brugge
4.0
KVC Westerlo
4.0
Charleroi
3.9
RAAL La Louvière
3.9
Genk
3.7
Gent
3.7
Zulte Waregem
3.7
Club Brugge KV
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
OH Leuven
24.9
Anderlecht
24.9
RAAL La Louvière
24.6
Antwerp
24.1
Lommel United
23.9
Kortrijk
23.5
SK Beveren
23.3
KVC Westerlo
23.1
Zulte Waregem
23.1
Cercle Brugge
22.9
Genk
22.2
Standard Liege
22.1
Charleroi
21.9
KV Mechelen
21.9
Union St. Gilloise
21.8
Gent
21.2
St. Truiden
21.2
Club Brugge KV
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.9%
@ 2.37+15.6%
Under 9.5
45.1%
@ 1.53-15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.28
Under
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.2%
Under 3.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
49.7%
Under 21.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Charleroi or Draw
53.5%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.65
Edge
-3.3%
30%
28%
42%
covers Charleroi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.70
1xBet
1.67
William Hil
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Charleroi or Union St. Gilloise
71.4%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.3%
30%
28%
42%
covers Charleroi + Union St. Gilloise
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Union St. Gilloise
75.1%
Avg Implied 70.5% · @ 1.33
Edge
+4.5%
30%
28%
42%
covers Draw + Union St. Gilloise
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
William Hil
1.33
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Charleroi over/under 0.5
Over
64.2%
@ 1.36-4.2%
Under
35.8%
@ 2.93+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Unibet
2.95
Charleroi over/under 1.5
Over
27.4%
@ 2.75-6.4%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.41+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
Marathonbet
2.78
Unibet
2.75
Betano
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Charleroi over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
@ 6.79-5.1%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.07+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Charleroi over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
@ 16.12-3.9%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
@ 1.21+0.9%
Under
22.7%
@ 3.93-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.19
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5
Over
43.7%
@ 2.09-0.8%
Under
56.3%
@ 1.68+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
@ 4.49-1.9%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.17+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Union St. Gilloise over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
@ 9.67-3.3%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.03+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Charleroi, so a minus line means Charleroi give that many goals of a start and Union St. Gilloise receive them. At -1, Charleroi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Charleroi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Charleroi)
Charleroi -2
2.7%
@ 17.00-2.7%
Draw -2
6.9%
@ 9.25-3.0%
Union St. Gilloise +2
90.4%
@ 1.08+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Unibet
15.00
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Handicap -1 (Charleroi)
Charleroi -1
9.6%
@ 6.80-3.7%
Draw -1
15.3%
@ 4.80-3.6%
Union St. Gilloise +1
75.1%
@ 1.33+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Handicap +1 (Charleroi)
Charleroi +1
53.5%
@ 1.65-0.7%
Draw +1
22.7%
@ 3.81-0.9%
Union St. Gilloise -1
23.9%
@ 4.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Away
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Handicap +2 (Charleroi)
Charleroi +2
76.1%
@ 1.20+0.8%
Draw +2
14.5%
@ 6.20-0.1%
Union St. Gilloise -2
9.4%
@ 8.93-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Away
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.20
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Charleroi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.62
0.50
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
0.44
0.67
0.33
1.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union St. Gilloise
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.94
0.31
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.54
1.22
0.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.25
0.57
0.29
0.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.0%
@ 1.37+3.1%
Under 0.5
29.0%
@ 2.90-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.38
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.95
William Hil
2.90
1xBet
2.89
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.0%
@ 2.74+1.0%
Under 1.5
65.0%
@ 1.41-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Pinnacle
2.84
William Hil
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.73
Under
BetVictor
1.42
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 6.65-1.4%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.07+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.90
Betano
6.60
William Hil
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Charleroi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.3%
@ 2.26-1.8%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.58+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.32
Unibet
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Charleroi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.9%
@ 7.68-4.2%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.05+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Charleroi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
@ 12.50-6.4%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.6%
@ 1.91+5.0%
Under
46.4%
@ 1.80-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Unibet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.1%
@ 5.72-0.1%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.10+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
@ 15.25-2.1%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Charleroi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.88
0.75
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.67
0.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.55
1.00
0.90
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Union St. Gilloise) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union St. Gilloise
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
1.06
0.31
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.62
0.78
0.44
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.25
1.43
0.14
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Charleroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
@ 1.22+2.6%
Under 0.5
21.2%
@ 3.90-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.0%
@ 2.08+1.1%
Under 1.5
54.0%
@ 1.69-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
William Hil
2.05
Under
Unibet
1.74
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.1%
@ 4.47-0.7%
Under 2.5
79.9%
@ 1.17+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
William Hil
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Charleroi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.0%
@ 1.90-2.7%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.80+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Charleroi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.2%
@ 5.66-3.1%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.10+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
5.90
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Charleroi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
@ 14.00-4.2%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Union St. Gilloise over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.9%
@ 1.64+3.4%
Under
40.1%
@ 2.13-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Union St. Gilloise over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.7%
@ 4.15+2.4%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.19-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Union St. Gilloise over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.9%
@ 9.90-4.4%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
1xBet
9.70
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
Under 5.5
95.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+3.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+4.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
91.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
+5.1%
Away +2 handicap
90.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 4.5
89.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+3.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
+1.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+3.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+0.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
81.3%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+1.9%
Under 25.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+0.7%
Over 2.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+2.6%
Over 1.5
77.7%
1.27
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+4.3%
Away over 0.5 goals
77.3%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+0.9%
Home +2 handicap
76.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+0.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.19
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-2.4%
Draw or Away
75.1%
1.33
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
William Hil
1.33
+4.5%
Away +1 handicap
75.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
-
+7.2%
Under 5.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.6%
1.41
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
+6.4%
Home or Away
71.4%
1.29
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
-1.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.0%
1.37
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.38
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
+3.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Charleroi
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof50%
Aurélien Scheidler33%
Aiham Ousou33%
Cheick Keita33%
Antoine Colassin25%
Freddy Mbemba25%
Amine Boukamir25%
Patrick Pflücke0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aiham Ousou33%
Antoine Bernier25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Patrick Pflücke0%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Antoine Colassin0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Pflücke25%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof25%
Antoine Colassin25%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas25%
Adama Bojang25%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Aiham Ousou0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Pflücke75%
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas25%
Aurélien Scheidler0%
Aiham Ousou0%
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof0%
Antoine Bernier0%
Mardochee Nzita0%
Antoine Colassin0%
Cheick Keita0%
Mohamed Koné0%
Freddy Mbemba0%
Massamba Sow0%
Adama Bojang0%
Yassine Khalifi0%
Amine Boukamir0%
Isaac Ismaël Cissé0%
Union St. Gilloise
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
R. Florucz50%
Guilherme Smith50%
R. Mofokeng50%
D. Olaru33%
M. Biondic33%
K. Mac Allister25%
L. Patris25%
B. Zeneli25%
A. Zorgane0%
R. Schoofs0%
K. Van de Perre0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
M. Sylla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Mac Allister100%
K. Van de Perre50%
R. Florucz25%
Guilherme Smith25%
M. Sylla25%
A. Zorgane0%
R. Schoofs0%
D. Olaru0%
L. Patris0%
M. Biondic0%
B. Zeneli0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
R. Mofokeng0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Zeneli75%
R. Schoofs50%
D. Olaru33%
M. Biondic33%
L. Patris25%
Guilherme Smith25%
A. Zorgane0%
K. Mac Allister0%
R. Florucz0%
K. Van de Perre0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
R. Mofokeng0%
M. Sylla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Zeneli50%
D. Olaru33%
Guilherme Smith25%
A. Zorgane0%
K. Mac Allister0%
R. Schoofs0%
R. Florucz0%
L. Patris0%
M. Biondic0%
K. Van de Perre0%
Ondrej Kricfalusi0%
R. Mofokeng0%
M. Sylla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
USG (26)
€98m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
CB (26)
€40m
KW (26)
€38m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
LU (25)
€26m
RLL (30)
€23m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Charleroi's squad is €67m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€31m vs €98m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
USG (10)
€32m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
RLL (10)
€6m
SB (9)
€4m
Charleroi's attack is €20m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€13m vs €32m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (7)
€38m
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
LU (5)
€15m
ANT (4)
€10m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
RLL (7)
€6m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Charleroi's midfield is €34m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€4m vs €38m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
USG (9)
€28m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
RLL (13)
€11m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
Charleroi's defence is €13m less valuable than Union St. Gilloise's (€14m vs €28m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gent
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Genk
Lommel United
Antwerp
Anderlecht
St. Truiden
SK Beveren
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
Kortrijk