Derby is expected to win this match, with a predicted close contest. Charlton's recent win over Derby, coming off a 2-1 score, might give them a slight boost. However, Derby's strong form away from home, averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.29 conceded, suggests they'll be a force to be reckoned with.
The model predicts a 44% chance of an away win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of a home win. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability.
Charlton's home form against similar opponents is mediocre, with an average of 0.91 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Derby, on the other hand, has shown strength in their away form, averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against similar teams.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 (74.2%), Under 3.5 (74.0%), and a clean sweep of home, draw, and away win picks, with the away win at 44% and the home win at 27%.
Charlton's home win extends their run of three wins in their last five matches, coming off a win against Derby just last week. However, today's upset saw Charlton take down Derby 2-1, defying the pre-match favourite's 44% win probability. The model's selection, Derby's away win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks performed well, with Over 1.5 hitting at 74.2% and Under 3.5 also hitting at 74.0%. Despite Derby's strong form, averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.29 conceded on the road, they ultimately fell short.
Charlton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.37 | 0.88 | 1.38 | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.80 | 2.20 | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.90 | 1.33 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Derby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.19 | 1.64 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.50 | 1.12 | 1.38 | 0.92 | 1.62 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Derby goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 14% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Charlton
Derby
Charlton| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 21.6 | 21.0 | 22.2 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 10.5 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 19.8 | 21.4 | 18.0 |
| vs Similar (35) | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 22.3 | 20.9 | 23.8 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 3.5 | - | 3.5 | 20.5 | - | 20.5 |
| % over line | 44% | 48% | 40% | 46% | 48% | 44% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| % under line | 56% | 52% | 60% | 54% | 52% | 56% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
Derby| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 22.7 | 22.5 | 22.9 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 9.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 24.1 | 22.2 | 26.7 |
| vs Similar (43) | 9.9 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 22.4 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 48% | 48% | 48% | 54% | 56% | 52% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| % under line | 52% | 52% | 52% | 46% | 44% | 48% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Charlton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.57 | 0.25 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.24 | 0.52 | 0.27 | 0.64 | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Derby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.77 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.92 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Charlton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.67 | 0.81 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Derby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 1.75 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 80.4% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +17.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 74.4% | 1.49 | 1.70 | 1.41 | 1.36 | - | - | +11.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 74.2% | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | +5.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 74.0% | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | -1.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.0% | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.30 | +2.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 30/09/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/02/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/02/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/02/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 06/08/22 | H | 1-0 |
Charlton| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
Derby| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 16/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 2.0 | 75% | 50% | 0% | 9.2 | 25% | 4.2 | 100% | 22.2 | 75% | 91 | 56 | 9 | 26 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 55% |
| 2 | QPR | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 25% | 8.5 | 50% | 2.8 | 25% | 18.8 | 25% | 71 | 29 | 15 | 27 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 46% |
| 3 | Charlton | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 2.2 | 75% | 50% | 0% | 10.5 | 75% | 3.0 | 25% | 24.5 | 75% | 31 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 42% |
| 4 | Southampton | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 11.2 | 50% | 6.5 | 75% | 22.0 | 25% | 205 | 72 | 53 | 79 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 5 | Wolves | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 23.2 | 50% | 273 | 79 | 79 | 116 | 2.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.0 | 50% | 21.0 | 25% | 142 | 74 | 27 | 41 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 59% |
| 7 | Bristol City | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 10.5 | 75% | 3.2 | 25% | 22.5 | 50% | 66 | 29 | 19 | 18 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 8 | West Brom | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 10.5 | 75% | 2.0 | 0% | 21.8 | 25% | 52 | 15 | 22 | 15 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 9 | Birmingham | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.7 | 33% | 23.0 | 75% | 93 | 46 | 12 | 35 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 10 | Sheffield United | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 10.8 | 75% | 3.3 | 67% | 23.2 | 75% | 110 | 29 | 32 | 49 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 11 | Millwall | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 25% | 11.2 | 75% | 4.0 | 50% | 20.8 | 50% | 85 | 30 | 29 | 25 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 10.8 | 50% | 2.5 | 0% | 23.5 | 100% | 77 | 15 | 23 | 39 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 13 | West Ham | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 75% | 20.0 | 25% | 274 | 84 | 48 | 141 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Blackburn | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 25% | 10.0 | 75% | 4.5 | 100% | 21.8 | 50% | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 15 | Watford | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2.2 | 100% | 25% | 0% | 11.8 | 75% | 4.8 | 75% | 20.2 | 25% | 88 | 28 | 38 | 22 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 16 | Bolton | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 11.0 | 75% | 3.2 | 25% | 19.8 | 25% | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 17 | Derby | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | 11.8 | 75% | 4.2 | 50% | 23.5 | 100% | 57 | 25 | 14 | 18 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 18 | Lincoln | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.2 | 50% | 25.0 | 75% | 12 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | Cardiff | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 13.2 | 75% | 3.5 | 50% | 22.5 | 100% | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 20 | Norwich | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | 9.2 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 23.0 | 75% | 107 | 46 | 31 | 29 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 54% |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 11.8 | 100% | 2.8 | 25% | 25.0 | 50% | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 22 | Stoke | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 7.8 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 26.8 | 100% | 79 | 35 | 11 | 32 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 52% |
| 23 | Burnley | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 8.5 | 25% | 4.8 | 75% | 20.0 | 0% | 115 | 70 | 8 | 37 | 1.2 | 2.5 | - |
| 24 | Preston | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 8.5 | 25% | 3.5 | 50% | 25.0 | 75% | 43 | 17 | 3 | 22 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 46% |