This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.77
1.75
1.69
1.36
1.86
vs Stronger (9)
1.67
2.67
1.67
2.33
1.67
3.33
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.38
1.80
1.30
1.27
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.0%
Under 2.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.4%
No
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.6%
2-0 ✓
6.1%
1-0
6.0%
3-1
5.1%
0-0
5.1%
Chaves goals ↓
Portimonense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.0%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
1
6.0%
11%
7.7%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.1%
8.9%
6.6%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.5%
5.1%
3.8%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.5%
2.2%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chaves goals (down), columns = Portimonense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Chaves is 0.21 points worse than Portimonense in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Chaves is 0.29 goals worse than Portimonense in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Chaves is 0.06 goals better than Portimonense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chaves
For 5.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 16.4 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portimonense
For 5.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 16.3 · Total 31.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.0
11.1
3.1
3.0
3.3
30.5
28.7
32.1
vs Stronger (26)
10.9
10.8
11.0
2.7
2.4
3.1
29.6
28.9
30.3
vs Similar (24)
11.2
11.2
11.2
3.5
3.6
3.5
31.2
28.6
33.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
53%
56%
46%
46%
46%
97%
94%
100%
% under line
46%
47%
44%
54%
54%
54%
3%
6%
0%
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (35)
9.7
9.8
9.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
31.4
32.3
30.4
vs Stronger (12)
8.4
7.7
9.2
3.9
4.0
3.8
31.5
35.5
27.5
vs Similar (23)
10.4
10.9
9.9
4.8
4.7
4.9
31.3
30.8
32.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
50%
47%
69%
72%
65%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
51%
50%
53%
31%
28%
35%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benfica
11.2
Sporting CP
11.2
Chaves
11.1
Feirense
11.0
Tondela
10.8
SC Braga
10.4
Moreirense
10.3
Boavista
10.3
FC Porto
10.3
Guimaraes
10.0
Santa Clara
10.0
Aves
10.0
Portimonense
9.7
Rio Ave
9.7
Belenenses
9.6
Maritimo
9.5
Setubal
9.5
Nacional
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rio Ave
5.7
Feirense
5.6
Moreirense
5.3
Boavista
5.2
Setubal
5.0
Sporting CP
4.8
Belenenses
4.8
Tondela
4.8
FC Porto
4.8
SC Braga
4.7
Maritimo
4.6
Aves
4.6
Portimonense
4.5
Chaves
4.5
Guimaraes
4.4
Benfica
4.3
Nacional
4.0
Santa Clara
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
35.7
Feirense
35.2
Rio Ave
33.9
Guimaraes
32.3
Boavista
32.3
Aves
31.8
Belenenses
31.7
Maritimo
31.7
SC Braga
31.6
Moreirense
31.6
Sporting CP
31.5
Tondela
31.4
Portimonense
31.4
FC Porto
31.2
Chaves
30.5
Benfica
29.2
Santa Clara
25.0
Nacional
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.7%
Under 9.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.6%
Under 3.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.0%
Under 21.5
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.67
0.87
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.14
0.71
1.14
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.75
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.93
0.81
0.88
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.44
0.83
1.33
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.71
0.80
0.60
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.13
0.67
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.00
1.00
0.86
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.94
0.81
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.22
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.67
1.00
0.70
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chaves · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jorge Delgado20%
David Kusso20%
Reinaldo18%
Pedro Pinho18%
André Rodrigues17%
Robyn Esajas14%
Aarón Romero12%
Tiago Simões11%
Roberto9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Pinho36%
Ricardo Alves33%
Paulo Victor33%
Bruno Rodrigues31%
Zach Muscat29%
Robyn Esajas29%
Reinaldo27%
Wellington Carvalho22%
David Kusso20%
Marko Gudžulić17%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
Roberto9%
Ktatau8%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reinaldo18%
Robyn Esajas14%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
David Kusso10%
Roberto9%
Pedro Pinho9%
Carraça8%
Bruno Rodrigues8%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reinaldo27%
Roberto27%
Jorge Delgado20%
André Rodrigues17%
Aarón Romero12%
Wellington Carvalho11%
Pedro Pinho9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Robyn Esajas0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
David Kusso0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Portimonense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sarará50%
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Alexandre Fernando33%
Mesaque Dju25%
Welat Cagro20%
João Reis14%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Samuel Lobato14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Douglas Grolli0%
Xavier0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Thauan Lara0%
Marlon Junior0%
Francisco Canário0%
Danio Djassi0%
Samy0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Douglas Grolli50%
Sarará50%
Sébastien Cibois40%
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Xavier33%
Alexandre Fernando33%
Samuel Lobato29%
Mesaque Dju25%
Dauda Mohammed20%
Welat Cagro20%
Heitor17%
Samy17%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Marlon Junior14%
Welinton Junior0%
João Reis0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Thauan Lara0%
Francisco Canário0%
Danio Djassi0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thauan Lara67%
Douglas Grolli25%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Samuel Lobato14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
João Reis0%
Welat Cagro0%
Xavier0%
Mesaque Dju0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Sarará0%
Marlon Junior0%
Francisco Canário0%
Alexandre Fernando0%
Danio Djassi0%
Samy0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Tiago Ferreira29%
Mesaque Dju25%
Dauda Mohammed20%
Samy17%
João Reis14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Douglas Grolli0%
Welat Cagro0%
Xavier0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Sarará0%
Thauan Lara0%
Marlon Junior0%
Samuel Lobato0%
Francisco Canário0%
Alexandre Fernando0%
Danio Djassi0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
Chaves's squad is €3m more valuable than Portimonense's (€9m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
Chaves and Portimonense have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
Chaves's midfield is €1m more valuable than Portimonense's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
Chaves's defence is €2m more valuable than Portimonense's (€4m vs €3m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Maritimo
Tondela
Nacional
Feirense