This opponent (Charlton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.50
1.64
1.36
1.25
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.52
1.60
1.20
1.55
1.82
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
1.44
1.75
1.75
0.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.19+2.4%
Under 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.64-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 3.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
5.7%
Cheltenham goals ↓
Charlton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
8.5%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
1
9.7%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.2%
8.4%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.2%
3.7%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cheltenham goals (down), columns = Charlton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Cheltenham is 0.20 points worse than Charlton in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Cheltenham is 0.50 goals worse than Charlton in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Cheltenham and Charlton are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Cheltenham is 8.0 percentage points worse than Charlton in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cheltenham
For 4.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Charlton
For 4.6 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 10.1 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cheltenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.7
4.2
4.5
3.8
22.4
21.8
23.0
vs Stronger (28)
9.9
10.9
8.8
3.6
4.0
3.3
22.8
21.4
24.1
vs Similar (21)
9.1
7.7
11.0
4.8
5.0
4.6
21.8
22.2
21.2
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
-
10.0
5.0
-
5.0
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
50%
50%
50%
56%
58%
54%
58%
50%
67%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
44%
42%
46%
42%
50%
33%
This opponent (Charlton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.2
11.5
4.1
4.2
4.0
20.8
21.5
20.2
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
-
6.0
4.0
-
4.0
19.0
-
19.0
vs Similar (30)
11.8
11.1
12.4
4.6
4.4
4.9
21.7
21.8
21.6
vs Weaker (19)
11.1
11.4
10.7
3.3
4.1
2.3
19.5
21.0
17.8
% over line
68%
71%
65%
60%
62%
58%
44%
54%
35%
% under line
32%
29%
35%
40%
38%
42%
56%
46%
65%
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fleetwood Town
11.5
Charlton
11.4
Derby
11.1
Exeter
11.1
Port Vale
10.9
Wycombe
10.9
Peterboro
10.9
Bristol Rvs
10.8
Bolton
10.6
Oxford
10.5
Portsmouth
10.5
Shrewsbury
10.3
Reading
10.2
Barnsley
10.0
Leyton Orient
9.8
Cambridge
9.6
Blackpool
9.6
Carlisle
9.6
Cheltenham
9.5
Stevenage
9.5
Lincoln
9.4
Wigan
9.3
Northampton
9.0
Burton
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
5.2
Portsmouth
4.9
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Oxford
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Fleetwood Town
4.3
Leyton Orient
4.3
Stevenage
4.3
Bolton
4.2
Lincoln
4.2
Port Vale
4.2
Barnsley
4.2
Cheltenham
4.2
Charlton
4.1
Exeter
4.1
Cambridge
4.1
Blackpool
4.0
Peterboro
3.9
Reading
3.9
Northampton
3.8
Wycombe
3.8
Carlisle
3.8
Derby
3.7
Burton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
24.9
Wigan
24.7
Portsmouth
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.0
Bolton
22.7
Cambridge
22.6
Cheltenham
22.4
Oxford
22.4
Fleetwood Town
22.3
Blackpool
22.3
Shrewsbury
21.7
Lincoln
21.6
Reading
21.5
Port Vale
21.2
Wycombe
21.1
Derby
20.9
Northampton
20.9
Exeter
20.8
Charlton
20.8
Carlisle
20.7
Burton
20.7
Peterboro
20.6
Barnsley
20.4
Leyton Orient
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.5%
Under 9.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.6%
Under 3.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
58.8%
Under 21.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cheltenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.56
0.56
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.73
0.50
0.50
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.43
0.62
0.62
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.50
0.79
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.71
0.30
0.80
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.44
1.00
0.75
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cheltenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.56
0.69
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.80
0.75
0.75
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.79
0.38
0.62
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Charlton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
1.14
0.57
0.75
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.81
1.30
0.40
0.91
1.18
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cheltenham · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan Broom67%
Charlie McCann33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Joseph Tomlinson0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Jake Bickerstaff0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Tomlinson33%
Jake Bickerstaff33%
Jonathan Tomkinson33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Ryan Broom0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Charlie McCann0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joseph Tomlinson33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Ryan Broom0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Jake Bickerstaff0%
Charlie McCann0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joseph Tomlinson33%
Charlie McCann33%
Ben Stevenson0%
Ryan Broom0%
Jordan Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
Jake Bickerstaff0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Charlton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tyreece Campbell75%
Lloyd Jones60%
Karlan Grant25%
Sonny Carey25%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Karlan Grant25%
Joe Rankin-Costello25%
Danny McNamara20%
Lloyd Jones20%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Sonny Carey0%
Millenic Alli0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sonny Carey50%
Nathaniel Chalobah25%
Conor Coventry25%
Karlan Grant25%
Joe Rankin-Costello25%
Millenic Alli25%
Ivan Mesík0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Tyreece Campbell0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sonny Carey25%
Tyreece Campbell25%
Ivan Mesík0%
Nathaniel Chalobah0%
Conor Coventry0%
Karlan Grant0%
Amari'i Bell0%
Danny McNamara0%
Lloyd Jones0%
Joe Rankin-Costello0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Millenic Alli0%
Collins Sichenje0%
Miles Leaburn0%
Micah Mbick0%
Alan Nwamba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Cheltenham's squad is €28m less valuable than Charlton's (€3m vs €31m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Cheltenham's attack is €17m less valuable than Charlton's (€1m vs €18m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Cheltenham's midfield is €2m less valuable than Charlton's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Cheltenham's defence is €9m less valuable than Charlton's (€1m vs €10m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Barnsley
Lincoln
Blackpool
Stevenage
Wigan
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Northampton
Reading
Bristol Rvs
Cambridge
Shrewsbury
Burton
Fleetwood Town
Port Vale
Carlisle