Chornomorets, after two straight defeats, will face Kryvbas KR, who are coming off a draw. The model sees a draw as the most likely outcome, with a 37% chance, followed by a 32% chance of a home win and a 30% chance of an away win. The average number of goals expected is 1.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 20.4% probability. Chornomorets have scored an average of one goal at home against stronger opposition while conceding two, whereas Kryvbas KR have scored two goals away against weaker teams and conceded 1.2. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Under 5.5 (99.3% with an 8% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.3%) and Under 4.5 (97.3% with an 11% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a draw, failed to materialise as Chornomorets edged Kryvbas KR 1-0, extending their recent win streak. The model had predicted a draw with a 37% probability, but the outcome was a home win, so the favourite was wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Under 5.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.1%) and Under 4.5 (97.3%). Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and no other side was called a favourite.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chornomorets win✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.07
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.19
Dafabet
3.15
William Hil
3.10
Betano
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Draw✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.33
Edge
+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.51
Pinnacle
3.47
Dafabet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.45
Bet365
3.30
Kryvbas KR win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied 42.7% · @ 2.14
Edge
-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.17
Dafabet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chornomorets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.80
1.40
0.33
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.42
0.84
1.50
0.30
1.33
1.44
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.44
1.25
0.00
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kryvbas KR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kryvbas KR
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.60
1.94
1.69
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
2.25
3.75
3.50
4.50
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.31
1.33
1.33
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (10)
2.20
1.20
2.40
1.20
2.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Chornomorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (29%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.7%
@ 1.29-21.2%
Under 1.5
49.3%
@ 3.28+21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.29
Superbet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.2%
@ 1.95-25.0%
Under 2.5
76.8%
@ 1.81+25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.98
SBO
1.97
1xBet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.85
1xBet
1.84
SBO
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
8.7%
@ 3.27-19.5%
Under 3.5
91.3%
@ 1.29+19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
1xBet
3.32
Betfair
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
33.0%
@ 1.75-19.7%
No
67.0%
@ 1.95+19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
No
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
20.4%@ 9.30+16.2%
1-0 ✓
14.8%@ 9.05+10.5%
1-1
14.4%@ 5.96+7.8%
0-1
14.1%@ 7.11+8.6%
2-0
6.8%@ 14.66+4.2%
0-2
6.3%@ 9.41+2.1%
2-1
5.5%@ 10.30+1.7%
1-2
5.3%@ 8.19+0.5%
Chornomorets goals ↓
Kryvbas KR goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
20%
14%
6.3%
1.7%
0.3%
1
15%
14%
5.3%
1.4%
0.3%
2
6.8%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
3
1.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chornomorets goals (down), columns = Kryvbas KR goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.40
Livyi Bereh
2.00
LNZ Cherkasy
2.00
Polessya
1.97
Dynamo Kyiv
1.90
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.70
Kolos Kovalivka
1.63
Kryvbas KR
1.60
Zorya Luhansk
1.53
Karpaty
1.37
Chornomorets
1.36
Bukovyna
1.29
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.07
Veres Rivne
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar
0.97
Kudrivka
0.94
Chornomorets is 0.24 points worse than Kryvbas KR in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.37
Dynamo Kyiv
2.20
Kryvbas KR
1.77
Polessya
1.70
Zorya Luhansk
1.40
Karpaty
1.33
LNZ Cherkasy
1.30
Chornomorets
1.23
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.20
Bukovyna
1.17
Kudrivka
1.06
Kolos Kovalivka
1.00
Livyi Bereh
1.00
Veres Rivne
0.87
Obolon'-Brovar
0.86
Chornomorets is 0.54 goals worse than Kryvbas KR in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livyi Bereh
0.50
LNZ Cherkasy
0.57
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.63
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.70
Polessya
0.70
Kolos Kovalivka
0.83
Karpaty
1.03
Zorya Luhansk
1.20
Dynamo Kyiv
1.20
Chornomorets
1.24
Bukovyna
1.30
Veres Rivne
1.33
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.50
Kryvbas KR
1.53
Kudrivka
1.56
Obolon'-Brovar
1.69
Chornomorets is 0.29 goals better than Kryvbas KR in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shakhtar Donetsk
68%
Dynamo Kyiv
62%
Livyi Bereh
58%
Polessya
57%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
56%
Zorya Luhansk
52%
Kolos Kovalivka
49%
Kudrivka
49%
Karpaty
49%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
48%
Kryvbas KR
48%
LNZ Cherkasy
44%
Veres Rivne
43%
Obolon'-Brovar
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chornomorets
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kryvbas KR
For 4.9 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chornomorets
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
9.0
0.6
0.8
0.4
21.7
22.4
20.8
vs Stronger (8)
9.2
9.3
9.0
1.5
2.5
0.5
21.2
20.3
24.0
vs Similar (32)
9.4
10.0
9.0
0.6
0.6
0.5
22.0
25.5
19.7
vs Weaker (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
44%
60%
25%
6%
8%
4%
56%
60%
50%
% under line
56%
40%
75%
94%
92%
96%
44%
40%
50%
This opponent (Kryvbas KR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kryvbas KR
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.5
9.3
2.0
1.7
2.4
24.5
23.8
25.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.3
9.0
13.0
1.9
2.5
1.0
22.0
24.5
17.0
vs Similar (28)
11.4
12.9
9.7
1.9
1.3
2.7
24.1
23.2
25.1
vs Weaker (15)
8.5
9.3
8.0
2.2
2.0
2.4
26.1
24.7
27.0
% over line
42%
62%
23%
26%
19%
33%
77%
77%
77%
% under line
58%
38%
77%
74%
81%
67%
23%
23%
23%
This opponent (Chornomorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Zorya Luhansk
10.5
Kryvbas KR
10.0
Dynamo Kyiv
9.9
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
9.8
Veres Rivne
9.8
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
9.7
Polessya
9.5
Kudrivka
9.4
Livyi Bereh
9.2
Obolon'-Brovar
9.1
LNZ Cherkasy
9.1
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
Chornomorets
8.8
Kolos Kovalivka
8.6
Karpaty
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Karpaty
4.9
Obolon'-Brovar
4.6
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4.6
LNZ Cherkasy
4.5
Veres Rivne
4.4
Chornomorets
4.4
Livyi Bereh
4.4
Polessya
4.2
Zorya Luhansk
4.1
Dynamo Kyiv
4.0
Kolos Kovalivka
3.9
Kudrivka
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Kryvbas KR
3.6
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Obolon'-Brovar
26.9
Livyi Bereh
26.2
Kudrivka
25.1
Kryvbas KR
24.6
Karpaty
24.2
Kolos Kovalivka
24.0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
23.7
LNZ Cherkasy
23.0
Veres Rivne
22.8
Chornomorets
22.4
Zorya Luhansk
22.0
Dynamo Kyiv
21.3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
21.2
Polessya
20.6
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.3%
@ 1.92-0.3%
Under 9.5
51.7%
@ 1.81+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.0%
Under 21.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chornomorets or Draw✓ Hit
69.6%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.62
Edge
+12.6%
32%
37%
30%
covers Chornomorets + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
William Hil
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Chornomorets or Kryvbas KR✓ Hit
62.8%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-9.8%
32%
37%
30%
covers Chornomorets + Kryvbas KR
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Draw or Kryvbas KR✗ Miss
67.6%
Avg Implied 70.4% · @ 1.32
Edge
-2.8%
32%
37%
30%
covers Draw + Kryvbas KR
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chornomorets over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.1%
@ 1.39-9.7%
Under
42.9%
@ 2.79+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.37
Under
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.84
10Bet
2.80
Chornomorets over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.8%
@ 2.78-12.5%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.39+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Chornomorets over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 6.75-8.3%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.07+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.35
Under
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Chornomorets over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 12.00-6.7%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
12.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Kryvbas KR over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
55.5%
@ 1.24-19.1%
Under
44.5%
@ 3.65+19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.64
Superbet
3.55
Kryvbas KR over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.5%
@ 2.16-23.5%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.63+23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Under
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Kryvbas KR over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 4.70-14.8%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.16+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.52
Bet365
4.33
Under
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Kryvbas KR over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 9.27-9.1%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.04+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
9.30
Bet365
8.50
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chornomorets, so a minus line means Chornomorets give that many goals of a start and Kryvbas KR receive them. At -1, Chornomorets must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chornomorets win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chornomorets)Actual: Kryvbas KR
Chornomorets -2
2.8%
@ 19.00-2.1%
Draw -2
8.5%
@ 10.00-0.9%
Kryvbas KR +2
88.6%
@ 1.10+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Away
Bet365
1.10
Handicap -1 (Chornomorets)Actual: Draw
Chornomorets -1
11.4%
@ 6.58-2.3%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 4.67+1.8%
Kryvbas KR +1
67.6%
@ 1.34+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Handicap +1 (Chornomorets)Actual: Chornomorets
Chornomorets +1
69.6%
@ 1.68+15.8%
Draw +1
20.1%
@ 3.80-3.7%
Kryvbas KR -1
10.3%
@ 4.02-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.63
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Handicap +2 (Chornomorets)Actual: Chornomorets
Chornomorets +2
89.7%
@ 1.19+14.4%
Draw +2
7.8%
@ 6.05-6.9%
Kryvbas KR -2
2.5%
@ 9.00-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw
Marathonbet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chornomorets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.27
0.20
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.42
0.20
0.20
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.22
0.25
0.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kryvbas KR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kryvbas KR
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.25
0.50
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.75
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.44
1.11
0.33
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.50
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Chornomorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.3%
@ 1.38+1.2%
Under 0.5
31.7%
@ 2.80-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Under
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
2.90
1xBet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
2.81
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.80+0.3%
Under 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.39-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Pinnacle
2.82
Marathonbet
2.81
1xBet
2.80
Under
1xBet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 6.94-0.8%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.07+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.90
1xBet
6.67
Marathonbet
6.65
Under
1xBet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chornomorets over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.3%
@ 2.29-2.1%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.56+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.36
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Under
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Chornomorets over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 8.00-3.7%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.05+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Under
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Chornomorets over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kryvbas KR over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.6%
@ 1.94+3.0%
Under
49.4%
@ 1.77-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.71
Kryvbas KR over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 6.03+1.1%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.08-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Kryvbas KR over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chornomorets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
1.13
0.13
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.42
1.30
0.10
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.22
1.00
0.00
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kryvbas KR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kryvbas KR
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.69
1.19
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.88
0.22
1.00
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.70
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Chornomorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.2%
@ 1.24+3.8%
Under 0.5
21.8%
@ 3.60-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.67
Marathonbet
3.60
William Hil
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.0%
@ 2.13+0.4%
Under 1.5
56.0%
@ 1.64-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
William Hil
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 4.61-2.0%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.16+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.65
Superbet
4.65
William Hil
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
Under
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chornomorets over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.8%
@ 1.92-3.2%
Under
55.2%
@ 1.77+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Under
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Chornomorets over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 5.85-4.6%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.10+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Under
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Chornomorets over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kryvbas KR over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
61.1%
@ 1.71+7.2%
Under
38.9%
@ 2.00-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.68
Under
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
1.97
Kryvbas KR over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
29.2%
@ 4.45+8.3%
Under
70.8%
@ 1.17-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Under
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Kryvbas KR over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
99.3%
1.02
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
97.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+14.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
94.6%
1.07
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
91.3%
1.29
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+19.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
+14.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.07
1xBet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.08
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
79.2%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
+12.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
1.24
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.8%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
-
-8.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chornomorets · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oleksiy Khoblenko25%
Moses Jarju14%
Yevgeniy Skyba12%
Denis Yanakov9%
Bogdan Butko8%
Yaroslav Rakitskyi0%
Artem Habelok0%
Artur Rudko0%
Oleksandr Vasyliev0%
Ivan Petriak0%
Denys Bezborodko0%
Igor Kogut0%
Vitalii Yermakov0%
Jon Šporn0%
Illia Shevtsov0%
Bohdan Biloshevskyi0%
Kiril Popov0%
Ryan0%
Emil Mustafaiev0%
Danylo Udod0%
Kyrylo Sigeev0%
Luka Latsabidze0%
Yaroslav Kysyl0%
Caio Gomes0%
Oleksandr Pshenychnyuk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Šporn40%
Yaroslav Kysyl40%
Yaroslav Rakitskyi38%
Ivan Petriak33%
Oleksiy Khoblenko25%
Bohdan Biloshevskyi25%
Danylo Udod25%
Ryan17%
Luka Latsabidze17%
Artem Habelok15%
Emil Mustafaiev14%
Moses Jarju14%
Kyrylo Sigeev14%
Yevgeniy Skyba12%
Denis Yanakov9%
Bogdan Butko8%
Kiril Popov8%
Artur Rudko0%
Oleksandr Vasyliev0%
Denys Bezborodko0%
Igor Kogut0%
Vitalii Yermakov0%
Illia Shevtsov0%
Caio Gomes0%
Oleksandr Pshenychnyuk0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Petriak33%
Illia Shevtsov20%
Yaroslav Rakitskyi12%
Yevgeniy Skyba12%
Bogdan Butko8%
Kiril Popov8%
Artem Habelok0%
Artur Rudko0%
Oleksiy Khoblenko0%
Oleksandr Vasyliev0%
Denys Bezborodko0%
Denis Yanakov0%
Igor Kogut0%
Vitalii Yermakov0%
Jon Šporn0%
Bohdan Biloshevskyi0%
Ryan0%
Emil Mustafaiev0%
Danylo Udod0%
Moses Jarju0%
Kyrylo Sigeev0%
Luka Latsabidze0%
Yaroslav Kysyl0%
Caio Gomes0%
Oleksandr Pshenychnyuk0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Denis Yanakov18%
Emil Mustafaiev14%
Bogdan Butko0%
Yaroslav Rakitskyi0%
Artem Habelok0%
Artur Rudko0%
Oleksiy Khoblenko0%
Oleksandr Vasyliev0%
Ivan Petriak0%
Denys Bezborodko0%
Igor Kogut0%
Vitalii Yermakov0%
Jon Šporn0%
Illia Shevtsov0%
Bohdan Biloshevskyi0%
Kiril Popov0%
Ryan0%
Danylo Udod0%
Moses Jarju0%
Kyrylo Sigeev0%
Luka Latsabidze0%
Yaroslav Kysyl0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
Caio Gomes0%
Oleksandr Pshenychnyuk0%
Kryvbas KR · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yehor Tverdokhlib43%
Gleiker Mendoza29%
Maksym Zaderaka25%
Carlos Paraco25%
Assane Seck20%
Bar Lin14%
Yaroslav Shevchenko14%
Giovany Herbert14%
Artur Mykytyshyn12%
Bakary Konate12%
Volodymyr Mulyk10%
Oleksandr Kamenskyi9%
Volodymyr Vilivald6%
Volodymyr Makhankov0%
Jan Jurčec0%
Oleksandr Kemkin0%
Ante Bekavac0%
Carlos Rojas0%
Yvan Dibango0%
Araujo Andrusw0%
Jhoel Isaac Maya Zambrano0%
Joseph Jones0%
Matviy Bodnar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yehor Tverdokhlib29%
Araujo Andrusw29%
Bakary Konate25%
Jan Jurčec18%
Carlos Rojas17%
Gleiker Mendoza14%
Yaroslav Shevchenko14%
Carlos Paraco12%
Yvan Dibango7%
Maksym Zaderaka6%
Volodymyr Makhankov0%
Oleksandr Kemkin0%
Ante Bekavac0%
Artur Mykytyshyn0%
Assane Seck0%
Volodymyr Mulyk0%
Bar Lin0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Jhoel Isaac Maya Zambrano0%
Oleksandr Kamenskyi0%
Giovany Herbert0%
Joseph Jones0%
Matviy Bodnar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gleiker Mendoza21%
Assane Seck20%
Yehor Tverdokhlib14%
Yvan Dibango14%
Ante Bekavac12%
Carlos Paraco12%
Artur Mykytyshyn12%
Volodymyr Mulyk10%
Araujo Andrusw7%
Bar Lin7%
Yaroslav Shevchenko7%
Maksym Zaderaka6%
Jan Jurčec6%
Volodymyr Makhankov0%
Oleksandr Kemkin0%
Carlos Rojas0%
Bakary Konate0%
Volodymyr Vilivald0%
Jhoel Isaac Maya Zambrano0%
Oleksandr Kamenskyi0%
Giovany Herbert0%
Joseph Jones0%
Matviy Bodnar0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gleiker Mendoza36%
Carlos Paraco25%
Yehor Tverdokhlib14%
Bar Lin14%
Giovany Herbert14%
Artur Mykytyshyn12%
Yaroslav Shevchenko7%
Maksym Zaderaka6%
Volodymyr Vilivald6%
Volodymyr Makhankov0%
Jan Jurčec0%
Oleksandr Kemkin0%
Ante Bekavac0%
Carlos Rojas0%
Yvan Dibango0%
Araujo Andrusw0%
Assane Seck0%
Volodymyr Mulyk0%
Bakary Konate0%
Jhoel Isaac Maya Zambrano0%
Oleksandr Kamenskyi0%
Joseph Jones0%
Matviy Bodnar0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (33)
€186m
DK (37)
€91m
POL (32)
€34m
M1K (26)
€28m
LC (25)
€20m
KAR (28)
€13m
KK (27)
€13m
ZL (27)
€11m
KK (19)
€11m
BUK (25)
€9m
VR (21)
€7m
OBO (28)
€7m
ED (23)
€6m
CHO (21)
€5m
KUD (24)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
Chornomorets's squad is €5m less valuable than Kryvbas KR's (€5m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (16)
€115m
DK (13)
€32m
POL (9)
€12m
M1K (10)
€10m
LC (9)
€8m
KK (10)
€5m
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
ZL (11)
€3m
KK (7)
€3m
VR (9)
€3m
OBO (9)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DK (8)
€26m
SD (4)
€19m
POL (9)
€8m
M1K (6)
€7m
LC (5)
€5m
KK (4)
€3m
ZL (5)
€3m
KAR (5)
€2m
KK (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
OBO (5)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (13)
€52m
DK (16)
€33m
POL (14)
€14m
M1K (10)
€11m
LC (11)
€7m
KAR (15)
€7m
KK (7)
€6m
ZL (11)
€6m
KK (13)
€5m
VR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
OBO (14)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
Chornomorets's defence is €4m less valuable than Kryvbas KR's (€2m vs €6m).
Ukraine: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karpaty
Shakhtar Donetsk
Polessya
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Dynamo Kyiv
Zorya Luhansk
Bukovyna
Veres Rivne
LNZ Cherkasy
Livyi Bereh
Obolon'-Brovar
Kudrivka
Kolos Kovalivka