PythiaFootballBETA
The Pythia prediction model is favouring an away win for Polessya in this Premier League match against Chornomorets. This storyline is reinforced by Polessya's recent form, having won two of their last five games, including a 2-1 victory over Chornomorets.
The model's favoured result is an away win for Polessya, with a 52% probability of success. Chornomorets are the underdogs, with a 20% chance of winning at home. The draw is slightly less likely, with a 28% probability.
The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.3%.
At home, Chornomorets have scored an average of 1 goal and conceded 0.25 goals against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Polessya have scored 2.22 goals and conceded 0.22 goals when playing away against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 goals, with a 78.4% probability of success and a 7% edge.
The away team, Polessya, extended their 2-game winning run, following a 1-2 victory over Chornomorets. The win was the actual result, with the final score being 1-2. Polessya were the pre-match favourite, according to the Pythia prediction model, with a pre-match probability of 52%. The model's call was correct, as it predicted an away win.
The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 78.4%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 27%. The most likely scores were a 1-1 draw with 13.3% probability, a 0-1 away win with 12.9% probability, and a 0-2 away win with 10.7% probability.
Chornomorets| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.36 | 0.64 | 1.55 | 0.09 | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Polessya| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 0.87 | 1.47 | 0.80 | 1.93 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (5) | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 3.50 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 1.91 | 0.48 | 1.64 | 0.45 | 2.17 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Polessya goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 13% | 11% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 13% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
ChornomoretsPolessyaChornomorets| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 21.7 | 22.4 | 20.8 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 8.8 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 20.0 | 20.3 | 19.5 |
| vs Similar (32) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 23.8 | 25.5 | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (4) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 44% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 56% | 60% | 50% |
| % under line | 56% | 40% | 75% | 94% | 91% | 96% | 44% | 40% | 50% |
Polessya| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 19.8 | 18.1 | 21.2 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 19.7 | 17.2 | 24.5 |
| vs Weaker (37) | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 20.0 | 18.8 | 20.7 |
| % over line | 28% | 20% | 35% | 28% | 25% | 31% | 31% | 20% | 41% |
| % under line | 72% | 80% | 65% | 72% | 75% | 69% | 69% | 80% | 59% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78.4% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +6.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 31/08/24 | H | 1-4 | |
| 30/03/24 | A | 1-4 | |
| 16/09/23 | H | 1-0 |
Chornomorets| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-1 |
Polessya| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 20/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Karpaty | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 2 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 224 | 147 | 19 | 58 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 3 | Polessya | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 4 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 48% |
| 5 |  Kryvbas KR | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 6 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.7 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 25 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 7 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 62% |
| 8 |  Zorya Luhansk | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 9 |  Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 10 |  Livyi Bereh | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 11 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 42% |
| 12 |  Bukovyna | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 13 |  Kudrivka | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 14 |  Veres Rivne | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1.3 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 15 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 16 | Chornomorets | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | - |