Clermont Foot and Guingamp face a razor-thin contest, with the model favouring an away win. The predicted probabilities are 35 % for a home victory, 28 % for a draw and 37 % for a win by Guingamp. The expected total of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals at 26 %. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.5 % chance. Clermont, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded, while Guingamp on the road averages 1.5 scored and 1.43 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 96 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 90.9 %, Over 2.5 cards at 82.9 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 82.4 %, Under 11.5 corners at 80 %, Over 1.5 at 76.1 %, Under 3.5 at 71.7 % and Over 25.5 fouls at 70.4 %. Clermont’s recent form shows a draw before this match, while Guingamp has returned from a defeat. The match remains highly uncertain, with the model’s favourite result being an away win.
Results analysis
Clermont Foot finished 1-0 against Guingamp (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 35% home win, 28% draw and 37% away win. Picks that landed: Under 11.5 corners (80%), Under 3.5 (72%). Missed: Over 19.5 fouls (96%), Over 21.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (83%), Over 23.5 fouls (82%), Over 1.5 (76%), Over 25.5 fouls (70%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Clermont Foot win✓ Hit
34.9%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.12
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.52
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Guingamp win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 44.7% · @ 2.05
Edge
-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Clermont Foot
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.07
1.14
1.19
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
1.19
1.37
1.15
1.15
1.21
1.57
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guingamp
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.27
0.93
1.07
1.62
1.44
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.00
0.50
2.00
3.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.19
1.00
0.92
1.50
1.43
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Clermont Foot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.3%
@ 1.71-3.9%
Under 2.5
49.7%
@ 2.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
Under 3.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
8.1%
0-0
8.0%
1-0 ✓
7.8%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
6.0%
Clermont Foot goals ↓
Guingamp goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
8.1%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.8%
14%
8.4%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.0%
8.1%
5.5%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.6%
3.6%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Clermont Foot goals (down), columns = Guingamp goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Le Mans
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.75
Red Star
1.67
Rodez
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Reims
1.67
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Bastia
0.82
Amiens
0.75
Rouen
0.50
Clermont Foot is 0.06 points worse than Guingamp in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Estac Troyes
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
Le Mans
1.39
Red Star
1.36
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Amiens
1.14
Clermont Foot
1.11
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Bastia
0.76
Rouen
0.50
Clermont Foot is 0.11 goals worse than Guingamp in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Le Mans
0.86
Montpellier
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.94
Rouen
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Bastia
1.26
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
PAU
1.81
Amiens
1.92
Clermont Foot is 0.25 goals better than Guingamp in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
Estac Troyes
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Bastia
50%
Le Mans
49%
Amiens
47%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Rouen
43%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Clermont Foot is 6.1 percentage points worse than Guingamp in terms of average possession (50% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Clermont Foot
For 3.6 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 16.6 · Total 29.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guingamp
For 5.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 15.4 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clermont Foot
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.1
9.4
3.9
4.3
3.6
26.7
26.2
27.2
vs Stronger (3)
7.7
7.0
8.0
4.7
6.0
4.0
25.3
26.0
25.0
vs Similar (46)
9.4
9.2
9.5
4.0
4.3
3.7
26.8
26.2
27.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
47%
39%
54%
58%
65%
52%
84%
87%
81%
% under line
53%
61%
46%
42%
35%
48%
16%
13%
19%
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guingamp
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.9
8.3
4.3
4.8
3.8
28.0
26.9
29.1
vs Stronger (5)
9.2
10.0
8.0
4.6
4.7
4.5
24.4
25.7
22.5
vs Similar (43)
9.1
9.9
8.4
4.4
4.8
4.0
28.4
27.1
29.7
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
9.0
-
1.5
3.0
0.0
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
34%
46%
22%
62%
75%
50%
87%
83%
91%
% under line
66%
54%
78%
38%
25%
50%
13%
17%
9%
This opponent (Clermont Foot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Amiens
10.7
Laval
10.2
Rodez
10.0
Montpellier
9.9
Grenoble
9.7
PAU
9.6
Nancy
9.4
Saint Etienne
9.4
Clermont Foot
9.3
Guingamp
9.1
Le Mans
9.1
Reims
8.9
Rouen
8.9
Bastia
8.9
Boulogne
8.6
Estac Troyes
8.4
Dunkerque
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.3
Annecy
8.3
Red Star
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
5.4
PAU
4.7
Guingamp
4.6
Boulogne
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Annecy
4.3
Rodez
4.3
Estac Troyes
4.2
Clermont Foot
4.2
Montpellier
4.1
Laval
4.1
Reims
4.1
Saint Etienne
4.1
Nancy
4.0
Amiens
4.0
Dunkerque
3.9
RED Star FC 93
3.7
Grenoble
3.7
Red Star
3.5
Rouen
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.0
Annecy
29.0
Bastia
28.6
Nancy
28.6
Boulogne
28.2
Laval
28.1
Amiens
28.1
Guingamp
27.9
Estac Troyes
27.7
Le Mans
27.3
Rouen
27.2
Clermont Foot
26.9
Red Star
26.5
RED Star FC 93
26.5
Saint Etienne
26.1
PAU
26.0
Rodez
25.9
Dunkerque
25.9
Grenoble
25.9
Reims
24.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.6%
Under 9.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
66.1%
Under 3.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
90.9%
Under 21.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Clermont Foot
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.36
0.43
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.70
0.38
0.46
0.64
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guingamp
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.50
0.43
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.58
0.58
0.25
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Clermont Foot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Clermont Foot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clermont Foot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clermont Foot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Clermont Foot
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.67
0.77
0.69
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guingamp
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.43
0.64
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.62
0.42
0.67
0.79
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Clermont Foot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Clermont Foot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clermont Foot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clermont Foot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
France: Ligue 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Estac Troyes
Le Mans
Saint Etienne
Reims
Rodez
Annecy
RED Star FC 93
Montpellier
PAU
Dunkerque
Grenoble
Boulogne
Laval
Nancy
Bastia
Amiens
Rouen