The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an average of 3.3 goals expected and the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% chance. Clyde, playing at home against a stronger side, has been averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded, while Elgin on the road to a weaker opponent has been scoring 1.62 and conceding 2.5. The probabilities favour a home win at 51%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 25%. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 goals at 85.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 83.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.6%, and Over 8.5 corners at 70.2%. Recent form shows Clyde emerging from a draw after a 3-3 stalemate with Spartans, while Elgin remains unbeaten in five outings, having edged Stirling 4-0. The predicted outcome is a home victory, aligning with the model’s pick.
Results analysis
Clyde’s win over Elgin continued their recent form, with the win extending their run after a draw against Spartans. The final score was 1-0, a clear Home win that matched the model’s favourite, which was Home win at 51%. The model’s call was correct. The match’s total goals fell well below the expected 3.3, with only one goal scored. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: Over 1.5 goals at 85.4% missed, Over 2.5 cards at 83.0% missed, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.6% missed, while Over 8.5 corners at 70.2% hit. All figures are reported once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Clyde win✓ Hit
51.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Clyde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.60
1.25
1.44
1.43
1.79
vs Stronger (30)
1.33
1.60
1.25
1.44
1.43
1.79
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.80
1.81
0.88
1.43
2.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.86
1.88
0.75
1.17
3.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
1.75
1.75
1.00
1.62
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.7%
No
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
1-0 ✓
6.2%
3-0
4.6%
Clyde goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.9%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
1
6.2%
11%
6.5%
2.9%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.5%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.6%
6.2%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
4
2.3%
3.1%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Clyde goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Montrose
2.14
Peterhead
2.11
Stirling
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Clyde
1.42
Elgin
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.31
Berwick
1.03
Edinburgh City
0.83
Cowdenbeath
0.61
Clyde is 0.06 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterhead
2.19
Stirling
1.69
Montrose
1.67
Stenhousemuir
1.56
Elgin
1.50
Clyde
1.44
Annan Athletic
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.03
Berwick
0.86
Cowdenbeath
0.64
Clyde is 0.06 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.97
Peterhead
1.08
Annan Athletic
1.14
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Clyde
1.39
Stirling
1.44
Cowdenbeath
1.56
Berwick
1.64
Elgin
1.69
Edinburgh City
1.72
Clyde is 0.31 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Clyde
For 3.8 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 12.1 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 4.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 12.4 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clyde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.0
10.7
2.1
2.5
1.6
22.7
25.0
20.1
vs Stronger (50)
10.8
11.0
10.7
2.1
2.5
1.6
22.7
25.0
20.1
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
50%
58%
28%
38%
17%
54%
64%
42%
% under line
46%
50%
42%
72%
62%
83%
46%
36%
58%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
9.9
2.1
1.8
2.4
22.4
21.4
23.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
9.2
9.3
9.0
2.0
1.8
2.2
21.5
22.0
20.8
vs Weaker (27)
9.8
9.0
10.6
2.2
1.9
2.6
23.2
20.9
25.6
% over line
62%
57%
67%
26%
22%
30%
54%
43%
67%
% under line
38%
43%
33%
74%
78%
70%
46%
57%
33%
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Clyde
10.8
Stenhousemuir
10.2
Stirling
10.0
Edinburgh City
9.6
Elgin
9.5
Berwick
9.3
Montrose
9.2
Peterhead
8.7
Cowdenbeath
8.7
Annan Athletic
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.0
Clyde
4.0
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.8
Stirling
3.7
Peterhead
3.6
Berwick
3.2
Edinburgh City
3.1
Stenhousemuir
3.0
Montrose
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
26.3
Annan Athletic
24.7
Stirling
24.1
Cowdenbeath
23.5
Edinburgh City
23.5
Clyde
22.7
Elgin
22.4
Berwick
22.2
Montrose
21.9
Stenhousemuir
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.2%
Under 9.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
66.3%
Under 3.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
66.7%
Under 21.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Clyde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.44
0.50
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (30)
0.57
0.67
0.44
0.50
0.71
0.86
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.62
0.44
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.57
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.62
1.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Clyde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.81
0.94
0.71
0.93
vs Stronger (30)
0.77
0.93
0.81
0.94
0.71
0.93
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.19
0.44
0.86
1.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.29
1.12
0.38
0.67
2.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.88
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Montrose
Peterhead
Stirling
Stenhousemuir
Annan Athletic
Edinburgh City
Cowdenbeath