The contest between Clyde and Kelty Hearts is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. The probabilities are 38% for a Clyde victory, 27% for a draw and 35% for Kelty Hearts to win, making a home win the single most likely outcome. On average, the match should see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 24% chance. The scoreline most expected is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. Clyde’s home form shows they average 1.27 goals scored and concede 2.07 against stronger opposition, while Kelty Hearts, playing away against weaker teams, average 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 80.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.7%, and Over 2.5 cards at 73.9%. All selections carry their own probabilities, and no other outcomes are given win percentages.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Kelty Hearts snatched a 1-2 win over Clyde, overturning the pre-match favourite, a home win that the model had assigned a 38% chance. The result was a clear miss for the model’s pick. The final score of 1-2 confirmed an away victory, while the home side’s recent form, a draw after a streak of wins and losses, did not translate into the expected advantage. The model’s selections also played out mixed: Under 25.5 fouls missed, Under 5.5 cards hit, Over 1.5 hit and Over 2.5 cards hit, each with probabilities of 80.9%, 80.9%, 79.7% and 73.9% respectively. The match underlined how the predicted probabilities can be upended by on-day performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Clyde win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.14
Edge
+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.52
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts win✓ Hit
35.2%
Avg Implied 44.7% · @ 2.05
Edge
-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Clyde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.00
1.27
2.07
0.87
1.93
vs Stronger (29)
1.07
2.00
1.27
2.07
0.86
1.93
vs Similar (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.10
1.29
0.86
0.94
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.19
1.30
0.90
0.73
1.45
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.89
1.25
0.75
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.5%
@ 1.73+1.6%
Under 2.5
44.5%
@ 2.02-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.6%
1-2 ✓
8.2%
1-0
7.0%
0-1
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
2-0
6.0%
Clyde goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
6.7%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.0%
13%
8.2%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.6%
6.1%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.0%
4.2%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Clyde goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dunfermline
2.25
Falkirk
1.86
Airdrie United
1.67
Alloa
1.58
Queen of Sth
1.50
FC Edinburgh
1.42
Montrose
1.33
Kelty Hearts
1.11
Clyde
0.67
Peterhead
0.44
Clyde is 0.44 points worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Airdrie United
2.28
Falkirk
1.94
Dunfermline
1.75
FC Edinburgh
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.64
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.39
Kelty Hearts
1.08
Clyde
0.97
Peterhead
0.53
Clyde is 0.11 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunfermline
0.58
Falkirk
1.08
Alloa
1.31
Airdrie United
1.42
Kelty Hearts
1.50
Montrose
1.53
FC Edinburgh
1.53
Queen of Sth
1.64
Clyde
1.89
Peterhead
2.33
Clyde is 0.39 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Clyde
For 4.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
For 5.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clyde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.6
4.1
4.2
4.0
22.0
22.6
21.5
vs Stronger (47)
9.3
9.2
9.4
4.1
4.1
4.2
21.9
22.2
21.6
vs Similar (3)
12.3
13.0
12.0
3.3
5.0
2.5
23.3
30.0
20.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
52%
56%
56%
60%
52%
52%
52%
52%
% under line
46%
48%
44%
44%
40%
48%
48%
48%
48%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.8
9.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
21.3
21.0
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
9.8
9.5
10.1
3.9
3.5
4.1
22.3
21.5
22.9
vs Weaker (22)
8.5
8.0
9.0
3.3
3.8
2.7
20.0
20.3
19.7
% over line
44%
36%
52%
46%
52%
40%
42%
32%
52%
% under line
56%
64%
48%
54%
48%
60%
58%
68%
48%
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Falkirk
10.5
Queen of Sth
10.2
Peterhead
10.1
Airdrie United
10.1
Dunfermline
10.1
Alloa
10.0
Montrose
9.9
FC Edinburgh
9.8
Clyde
9.5
Kelty Hearts
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.3
Falkirk
4.2
Clyde
4.1
Dunfermline
3.7
Montrose
3.6
Kelty Hearts
3.6
FC Edinburgh
3.5
Airdrie United
3.5
Alloa
3.0
Queen of Sth
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
23.8
Montrose
22.7
Clyde
22.0
Falkirk
21.9
Kelty Hearts
21.3
Dunfermline
21.1
Queen of Sth
20.3
Alloa
19.6
FC Edinburgh
18.9
Airdrie United
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.5%
Under 9.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.6%
Under 3.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
48.5%
Under 21.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Clyde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (29)
0.62
0.76
0.67
0.80
0.57
0.71
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.50
0.29
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.43
0.50
0.30
0.27
0.55
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.22
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Clyde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.23
0.60
1.27
0.27
1.20
vs Stronger (29)
0.45
1.24
0.60
1.27
0.29
1.21
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.79
0.57
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.76
0.80
0.60
0.45
0.91
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.67
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (26)
€4m
KH (4)
€1m
MON (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
Clyde and Kelty Hearts have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
CLY (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
Clyde and Kelty Hearts have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
KH (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Clyde and Kelty Hearts have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
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Dunfermline
Falkirk
Airdrie United
Montrose
Peterhead