This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.33
1.71
1.36
1.06
1.31
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.25
vs Similar (19)
1.53
1.16
1.67
1.33
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.67
5.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.75-1.6%
Under 2.5
47.9%
@ 2.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1 ✓
8.8%
1-0
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.5%
0-1
7.0%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
Colchester goals ↓
Newport County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.0%
5.4%
2.3%
0.8%
1
8.0%
13%
7.8%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.7%
8.8%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.3%
4.3%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Colchester goals (down), columns = Newport County goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.00
Wrexham
1.91
Mansfield
1.87
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Doncaster
1.54
Crewe
1.54
Crawley Town
1.52
Bradford
1.50
Barrow
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Walsall
1.41
Gillingham
1.39
Harrogate
1.37
Notts County
1.33
Morecambe
1.33
Accrington
1.24
Tranmere
1.24
Newport County
1.20
Swindon
1.17
Salford
1.11
Grimsby
1.07
Colchester
0.98
Forest Green
0.91
Sutton
0.91
Colchester is 0.22 points worse than Newport County in terms of average points per game (0.98 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stockport
2.09
Mansfield
1.96
Notts County
1.93
Wrexham
1.93
Milton Keynes Dons
1.80
Swindon
1.67
Doncaster
1.59
Crawley Town
1.59
Walsall
1.50
Crewe
1.50
Tranmere
1.46
Morecambe
1.46
Salford
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Accrington
1.37
Newport County
1.35
Barrow
1.35
Bradford
1.33
Harrogate
1.30
Sutton
1.28
Colchester
1.28
Grimsby
1.24
Gillingham
1.00
Forest Green
0.96
Colchester is 0.07 goals worse than Newport County in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mansfield
1.02
Stockport
1.04
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Wrexham
1.13
Barrow
1.22
Gillingham
1.24
Bradford
1.28
Crewe
1.41
Crawley Town
1.46
Doncaster
1.48
Milton Keynes Dons
1.48
Harrogate
1.50
Tranmere
1.52
Accrington
1.54
Walsall
1.59
Grimsby
1.61
Newport County
1.65
Forest Green
1.70
Colchester
1.74
Morecambe
1.76
Salford
1.78
Swindon
1.80
Sutton
1.83
Notts County
1.87
Colchester is 0.09 goals worse than Newport County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
65%
Milton Keynes Dons
58%
Crawley Town
57%
Stockport
57%
Swindon
55%
Mansfield
54%
Salford
52%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
Gillingham
50%
Wrexham
50%
Doncaster
49%
Grimsby
49%
Colchester
49%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Tranmere
47%
Forest Green
45%
Barrow
44%
Sutton
44%
Newport County
44%
Morecambe
44%
Walsall
43%
Colchester is 5.0 percentage points better than Newport County in terms of average possession (49% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Colchester
For 6.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 10.1 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
For 4.7 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Colchester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.3
10.2
4.7
5.0
4.3
21.1
20.6
21.6
vs Stronger (10)
10.3
11.0
9.8
4.7
5.0
4.5
19.9
20.0
19.8
vs Similar (35)
11.0
11.7
10.3
4.6
5.0
4.2
21.3
20.5
22.1
vs Weaker (5)
10.2
9.7
11.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
22.0
21.7
22.5
% over line
66%
71%
62%
76%
67%
85%
48%
46%
50%
% under line
34%
29%
38%
24%
33%
15%
52%
54%
50%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.3
9.8
3.5
4.2
2.8
21.6
21.6
21.5
vs Stronger (10)
10.6
10.2
11.0
3.1
3.6
2.6
20.5
21.6
19.4
vs Similar (35)
9.7
10.2
9.2
3.7
4.4
3.0
22.3
21.8
22.8
vs Weaker (5)
11.4
10.7
12.5
2.8
3.7
1.5
18.4
20.7
15.0
% over line
52%
52%
52%
48%
60%
36%
56%
60%
52%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
52%
40%
64%
44%
40%
48%
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wrexham
11.6
Tranmere
11.3
Grimsby
11.1
Harrogate
10.8
Colchester
10.8
Crewe
10.7
Mansfield
10.6
Morecambe
10.6
Accrington
10.5
Walsall
10.5
Notts County
10.5
Swindon
10.4
Forest Green
10.4
Bradford
10.1
Milton Keynes Dons
10.1
Doncaster
10.1
Newport County
10.0
Salford
9.9
Crawley Town
9.8
Stockport
9.8
Sutton
9.7
AFC Wimbledon
9.6
Gillingham
9.4
Barrow
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Colchester
4.7
Crawley Town
4.6
AFC Wimbledon
4.5
Milton Keynes Dons
4.4
Salford
4.4
Morecambe
4.4
Crewe
4.3
Notts County
4.3
Doncaster
4.3
Bradford
4.3
Swindon
4.1
Gillingham
4.1
Tranmere
4.1
Barrow
4.0
Walsall
4.0
Mansfield
3.9
Accrington
3.9
Forest Green
3.9
Wrexham
3.7
Sutton
3.6
Grimsby
3.5
Stockport
3.5
Newport County
3.5
Harrogate
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
24.8
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Salford
22.7
Stockport
22.7
Barrow
22.5
Grimsby
22.4
Crewe
22.3
Doncaster
22.3
Sutton
22.2
Bradford
22.0
Walsall
21.7
Newport County
21.6
Swindon
21.4
Crawley Town
21.4
Gillingham
21.4
Colchester
21.1
Morecambe
20.9
Mansfield
20.7
Wrexham
20.4
Forest Green
20.2
Tranmere
19.8
Harrogate
19.8
Notts County
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.4%
Under 9.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.4%
Under 3.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
60.4%
Under 21.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Colchester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.46
0.62
0.59
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.81
0.33
0.56
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.50
0.57
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.53
0.33
0.56
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Colchester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Colchester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.13
1.15
1.31
0.41
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
1.50
1.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
1.19
1.11
1.22
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
1.21
0.79
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.63
1.33
0.78
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Colchester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Colchester · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Harry Anderson33%
Kane Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
Sean Raggett0%
Jack Tucker0%
Jack Payne0%
Thimothee Lo-Tutala0%
Oscar Thorn0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kane Vincent-Young33%
Ellis Iandolo33%
Rob Hunt33%
Harry Anderson0%
Sean Raggett0%
Jack Tucker0%
Jack Payne0%
Thimothee Lo-Tutala0%
Oscar Thorn0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kane Vincent-Young33%
Oscar Thorn33%
Harry Anderson0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
Sean Raggett0%
Jack Tucker0%
Jack Payne0%
Thimothee Lo-Tutala0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Anderson67%
Kane Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
Sean Raggett0%
Jack Tucker0%
Jack Payne0%
Thimothee Lo-Tutala0%
Oscar Thorn0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Newport County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
Harrison Biggins33%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
Ciaran Brennan33%
Harrison Biggins0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Harrison Biggins33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
Alfie Merritt33%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harrison Biggins33%
Christian Doidge0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
MKD (24)
€15m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Colchester's squad is €2m more valuable than Newport County's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
MKD (8)
€5m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Colchester's attack is €1m more valuable than Newport County's (€1m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
MKD (6)
€7m
MAN (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Colchester and Newport County have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Colchester and Newport County have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Stockport
Wrexham
Mansfield
Milton Keynes Dons
Doncaster
Crewe
Crawley Town
Barrow
Bradford
AFC Wimbledon
Walsall
Gillingham
Harrogate
Notts County
Morecambe
Tranmere
Accrington
Swindon
Salford
Grimsby
Sutton
Forest Green