This highly anticipated match between Colchester and Oldham is finely balanced, with both teams having a strong recent form narrative. Colchester is coming off a draw against Accrington, while Oldham is on a 2-game winning run against Port Vale. This momentum could influence the outcome, but let's take a closer look at the numbers.
Colchester is the favourite to win, with a 40% chance of taking home the three points, followed closely by a 30% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of an Oldham win. The expected total goals is 2.4, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.3%.
Looking at the teams' past performances, Colchester has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.55 goals and conceding 0.73 goals against similar opponents. Oldham, on the other hand, has a decent away record, scoring 1.5 goals and conceding 1.5 goals against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with the following suggested picks: Under 3.5 (78.3%), Over 1.5 (70.0%). Each team has a chance of winning, with Colchester at 40%, Oldham at 30%, and the draw at 30%.
Results analysis
The win for Colchester, extending their recent run, stunned the pre-match favourite, Oldham, who had been tipped to triumph with a 45 % probability. The final score was 2-1, a home victory that left the model’s pick wrong. The model’s selection of an away win was therefore missed. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.9 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.5 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.0 %, Under 5.5 hit at 96.6 %, and Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.5 %. The match delivered a surprise, with Colchester’s 2-1 triumph proving the model’s predictions largely off the mark.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colchester win✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied 36.9% · @ 2.51
Edge
-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Dafabet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
1xBet
2.57
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.32
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.42
10Bet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Oldham win✗ Miss
45.3%
Avg Implied 35.2% · @ 2.63
Edge
+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.72
888Sport
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Dafabet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Colchester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.07
1.33
0.87
1.07
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.00
1.58
0.83
1.23
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.10
1.53
0.73
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
0.80
1.67
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.52
1.16
1.50
0.75
1.54
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.2%
@ 1.27+2.0%
Under 1.5
24.8%
@ 3.47-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.74
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.1%
@ 1.89-0.6%
Under 2.5
50.9%
@ 1.86+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.91
Betfair
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
@ 3.18-2.0%
Under 3.5
72.8%
@ 1.32+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
888Sport
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.8%
@ 1.69-1.0%
No
46.2%
@ 2.05+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
No
William Hil
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.06+6.0%
0-1
9.7%@ 8.25+4.2%
1-2
9.2%@ 9.08+4.3%
0-0
8.4%@ 9.87+3.9%
0-2
8.3%@ 12.55+4.7%
2-1 ✓
6.8%@ 8.94+1.8%
1-0
6.8%@ 8.12+1.3%
2-2
5.2%@ 12.15+1.5%
Colchester goals ↓
Oldham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
9.7%
8.3%
4.2%
1.6%
1
6.8%
13%
9.2%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.5%
6.8%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.7%
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Colchester goals (down), columns = Oldham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Colchester is 0.04 points worse than Oldham in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Colchester is 0.04 goals better than Oldham in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Colchester is 0.11 goals worse than Oldham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Colchester is 6.2 percentage points better than Oldham in terms of average possession (54% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Colchester
For 5.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oldham
For 4.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Colchester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.7
9.6
3.9
4.1
3.7
24.9
24.3
25.5
vs Stronger (9)
8.1
7.5
8.8
3.8
2.2
5.8
25.0
23.8
26.2
vs Similar (41)
9.4
8.9
9.8
4.0
4.6
3.3
24.9
24.4
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
29%
48%
60%
64%
56%
76%
75%
76%
% under line
61%
71%
52%
40%
36%
44%
24%
25%
24%
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.6
10.3
3.8
3.8
3.7
25.0
24.8
25.2
vs Stronger (7)
10.5
9.3
11.7
2.3
3.0
1.8
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (43)
9.9
9.6
10.1
4.0
4.0
4.1
25.5
25.1
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
50%
62%
58%
56%
60%
73%
71%
75%
% under line
44%
50%
38%
42%
44%
40%
27%
29%
25%
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.0%
@ 1.83+0.3%
Under 9.5
49.0%
@ 1.89-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.76
Under
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Betano
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.8%
Under 3.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.5%
Under 21.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Colchester or Draw✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 64.9% · @ 1.43
Edge
+5.3%
27%
28%
45%
covers Colchester + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Colchester or Oldham✓ Hit
69.8%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.6%
27%
28%
45%
covers Colchester + Oldham
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Draw or Oldham✗ Miss
60.0%
Avg Implied 62.7% · @ 1.49
Edge
-2.7%
27%
28%
45%
covers Draw + Oldham
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.52
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Colchester over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.6%
@ 1.27-0.6%
Under
27.4%
@ 3.46+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.61
10Bet
3.50
888Sport
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Colchester over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.1%
@ 2.34-2.7%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.54+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Under
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Colchester over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 5.35-3.1%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.12+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Colchester over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 13.12-3.0%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Oldham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.2%
@ 1.29-6.0%
Under
33.8%
@ 3.34+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.59
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Oldham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.5%
@ 2.43-8.7%
Under
70.5%
@ 1.51+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Oldham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 5.63-6.8%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.11+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
888Sport
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.65
1xBet
5.55
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Oldham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 14.50-4.1%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Colchester, so a minus line means Colchester give that many goals of a start and Oldham receive them. At -1, Colchester must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Colchester win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Colchester)Actual: Oldham
Colchester -2
6.6%
@ 10.64-1.7%
Draw -2
12.1%
@ 6.69-1.1%
Oldham +2
81.3%
@ 1.13+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.70
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Unibet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Colchester)Actual: Draw
Colchester -1
18.7%
@ 5.04+0.8%
Draw -1
21.3%
@ 4.14-0.5%
Oldham +1
60.0%
@ 1.50-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.75
Draw
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Unibet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
Handicap +1 (Colchester)Actual: Colchester
Colchester +1
70.2%
@ 1.45+8.2%
Draw +1
17.7%
@ 4.25-3.4%
Oldham -1
12.1%
@ 5.28-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Draw
Marathonbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Away
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Handicap +2 (Colchester)Actual: Colchester
Colchester +2
87.9%
@ 1.13+7.8%
Draw +2
8.5%
@ 7.33-3.9%
Oldham -2
3.6%
@ 12.00-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
11.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Colchester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.53
0.27
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.36
0.67
0.33
0.54
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.53
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.52
0.42
0.50
0.77
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.2%
@ 1.37+0.3%
Under 0.5
31.8%
@ 2.90-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.07
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 2.72-1.7%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.41+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
Betano
2.82
Superbet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.69
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 6.77-2.3%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.07+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
Under
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Colchester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.2%
@ 2.03-0.6%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.71+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Under
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Colchester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 6.48-2.9%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.08+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
6.20
Betano
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Colchester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 18.00-3.0%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Oldham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.6%
@ 2.08-1.0%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.67+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Oldham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 6.72-4.1%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.08+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Oldham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 20.17-3.0%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Colchester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.64
0.92
0.50
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Oldham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oldham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.13
0.20
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.40
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.64
1.08
0.25
0.77
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.0%
Under 0.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.7%
Under 1.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.5%
Under 2.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Colchester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oldham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.07
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.11
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.8%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.3%
1.13
Unibet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.2%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.8%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.6%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.5%
1.33
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.26
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.5%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.2%
1.43
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.2%
1.45
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
+8.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Colchester
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaden Williams33%
Harry Anderson25%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Vincent-Young25%
Ellis Iandolo25%
Rob Hunt25%
J. Tucker25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Vincent-Young25%
O. Thorn25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Anderson75%
M. Sesay33%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Oldham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mike Fondop25%
Keenan Appiah-Forson25%
C. Kavanagh25%
E. Nevitt25%
K. Drummond25%
T. Pett0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
J. Robson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
F. Fawunmi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Hudson25%
Donervon Daniels25%
Ryan Delaney25%
O. Norburn25%
C. Kavanagh25%
E. Nevitt25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
J. Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
F. Fawunmi0%
K. Drummond0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
C. Kavanagh50%
J. Robson25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
Gus Scott-Morriss0%
E. Nevitt0%
F. Fawunmi0%
K. Drummond0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Kavanagh50%
F. Fawunmi33%
Gus Scott-Morriss25%
K. Drummond25%
T. Pett0%
Mike Fondop0%
M. Hudson0%
Donervon Daniels0%
Ryan Delaney0%
O. Norburn0%
J. Robson0%
Keenan Appiah-Forson0%
E. Nevitt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Colchester and Oldham have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Colchester and Oldham have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Colchester and Oldham have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Colchester and Oldham have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale