College 1975 will face Lions Gibraltar in a match that the model predicts will be high-scoring, with an expected 3.2 goals and a most likely total of three goals. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% chance, and the model favours an away win with a 57% probability, while home and draw chances sit at 20% and 23% respectively. College 1975, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.55 goals scored and 2.09 conceded, whereas Lions Gibraltar, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Under 7.5 at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Under 6.5 at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.4%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.5%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.2%. Both teams entered the fixture coming off draws, 1-1 against Hound Dogs and Magpies respectively.
Results analysis
College 1975’s recent run of defeats left them vulnerable at home, while Lions Gibraltar’s unbeaten streak in the last five matches set the tone for this encounter. The model predicted an away win with a 57% probability, and the result was a 1-2 victory for the visitors, confirming the forecast. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, but the 1-2 outcome still fell within the model’s expected range. Every suggested selection hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Under 7.5 at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.9%, Under 6.5 at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.6%, Away +2 handicap at 91.8%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 91.7%. The model’s predictions proved remarkably accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
College 1975 win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar win✓ Hit
56.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
College 1975
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.93
0.71
2.07
1.12
1.81
vs Stronger (21)
0.71
2.24
0.55
2.09
0.90
2.40
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.22
1.33
2.00
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.83
1.93
1.73
1.73
1.93
vs Stronger (13)
1.62
2.69
1.57
2.00
1.67
3.50
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.33
1.00
1.75
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.88
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.3%
Under 2.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.1%
Under 3.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2 ✓
9.8%
0-2
8.4%
0-1
7.3%
1-3
6.7%
0-3
5.7%
2-2
5.7%
2-1
5.6%
College 1975 goals ↓
Lions Gibraltar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
7.3%
8.4%
5.7%
2.9%
1
3.7%
11%
9.8%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.7%
5.6%
5.7%
3.9%
2.0%
3
1.1%
2.2%
2.2%
1.5%
0.8%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = College 1975 goals (down), columns = Lions Gibraltar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
College 1975 is 0.96 points worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of average points per game (0.64 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Europa
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
College 1975 is 1.28 goals worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals scored per game (0.68 vs 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
College 1975 is 0.42 goals worse than Lions Gibraltar in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
College 1975 or Draw✗ Miss
43.3%
Avg Implied -
20%
23%
57%
covers College 1975 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
College 1975 or Lions Gibraltar✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied -
20%
23%
57%
covers College 1975 + Lions Gibraltar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lions Gibraltar✓ Hit
79.8%
Avg Implied -
20%
23%
57%
covers Draw + Lions Gibraltar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
College 1975 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.1%
Under
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to College 1975, so a minus line means College 1975 give that many goals of a start and Lions Gibraltar receive them. At -1, College 1975 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal College 1975 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (College 1975)Actual: Lions Gibraltar
College 1975 -2
2.5%
Draw -2
5.7%
Lions Gibraltar +2
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (College 1975)Actual: Lions Gibraltar
College 1975 -1
8.2%
Draw -1
12.1%
Lions Gibraltar +1
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (College 1975)Actual: Draw
College 1975 +1
43.3%
Draw +1
21.9%
Lions Gibraltar -1
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (College 1975)Actual: College 1975
College 1975 +2
65.2%
Draw +2
17.5%
Lions Gibraltar -2
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
College 1975
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.83
0.21
0.86
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (21)
0.14
0.95
0.09
0.82
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.56
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.00
1.21
0.86
1.06
1.12
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.57
0.86
1.14
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.50
2.25
0.75
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.5%
Under 0.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.5%
Under 1.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.2%
Under 2.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
College 1975 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
College 1975
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.50
1.21
0.81
1.00
vs Stronger (21)
0.57
1.29
0.45
1.27
0.70
1.30
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lions Gibraltar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lions Gibraltar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.79
0.93
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.14
0.71
0.86
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.0%
Under 0.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.2%
Under 1.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.0%
Under 2.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
College 1975 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lions Gibraltar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
College 1975 and Lions Gibraltar have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
College 1975 and Lions Gibraltar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
College 1975 and Lions Gibraltar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
College 1975 and Lions Gibraltar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →