The model predicts an away win for the Magpies, with a 57 % chance of victory, a 24 % chance of a draw and a 20 % chance of a College 1975 win. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11 % chance. College 1975, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.55 goals scored and concedes 2.09 per match. The Magpies, on the road against a weaker opponent, average 2.25 goals scored and have not conceded in recent away fixtures. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4 %), Under 6.5 (96.3 %), Away +2 handicap (92.3 %), Under 5.5 (90.8 %), Home under 2.5 goals (90.1 %), Away over 0.5 goals (86.1 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (86.1 %). All selections carry their own probabilities, with the edge noted where applicable.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
College 1975 win
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Magpies win
62.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
College 1975
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.93
0.73
2.07
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (22)
0.73
2.23
0.58
2.08
0.90
2.40
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.12
1.33
2.00
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.63
1.00
1.35
1.23
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.12
0.75
2.25
0.25
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.14
1.50
1.11
1.22
1.20
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.38
1.00
0.75
2.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.9%
0-1
8.4%
1-3
7.0%
0-3
7.0%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
5.0%
College 1975 goals ↓
Magpies goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
8.4%
9.9%
7.0%
3.7%
1
3.5%
10%
9.9%
7.0%
3.7%
2
2.2%
4.7%
5.0%
3.5%
1.9%
3
0.7%
1.6%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = College 1975 goals (down), columns = Magpies goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
College 1975 is 0.64 points worse than Magpies in terms of average points per game (0.64 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Europa
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
College 1975 is 0.45 goals worse than Magpies in terms of goals scored per game (0.68 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
College 1975 is 0.59 goals worse than Magpies in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
College 1975 or Draw
38.0%
Avg Implied -
16%
22%
62%
covers College 1975 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
College 1975 or Magpies
78.0%
Avg Implied -
16%
22%
62%
covers College 1975 + Magpies
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Magpies
84.0%
Avg Implied -
16%
22%
62%
covers Draw + Magpies
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
College 1975 over/under 0.5
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5
Over
88.0%
Under
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5
Over
62.5%
Under
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 3.5
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to College 1975, so a minus line means College 1975 give that many goals of a start and Magpies receive them. At -1, College 1975 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal College 1975 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (College 1975)
College 1975 -2
1.6%
Draw -2
4.3%
Magpies +2
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (College 1975)
College 1975 -1
5.8%
Draw -1
10.2%
Magpies +1
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (College 1975)
College 1975 +1
38.0%
Draw +1
22.6%
Magpies -1
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (College 1975)
College 1975 +2
60.5%
Draw +2
19.1%
Magpies -2
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
College 1975
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.83
0.20
0.93
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (22)
0.14
1.00
0.08
0.92
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.38
0.67
1.00
0.40
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.72
0.61
0.67
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.62
0.50
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.60
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
College 1975 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
College 1975
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.10
0.53
1.13
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (22)
0.59
1.23
0.50
1.17
0.70
1.30
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Magpies) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Magpies
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.44
0.72
0.50
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.25
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.87
0.50
0.60
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
College 1975 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Magpies over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
College 1975 and Magpies have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
College 1975 and Magpies have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
College 1975 and Magpies have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
College 1975 and Magpies have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
St Joseph S Fc
Hound Dogs
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe